Day Trading Trading Signals - 07-29-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Tuesday morning''s swing warned that powerful upside sponsorship was arriving. Exiting the morning''s bias environment above its 2072.25 opening high rejected the no-bias environment. Its offsetting test of the 2060.00 bias-down signal was attacked only so much as to fill the gap back to Monday''s 2061.50 cash session close. The rejection''s 2080.50 target was fulfilled on the way to renewing the afternoon''s bias-up targeting 2088.00. The session''s entire last timing window hovered there.

Overnight action''s new info...
Tuesday afternoon''s 2085.00-2089.00 ranging finally began resolving upward just ahead of Europe''s opens. The choppy gains have been consolidating up to 2093.00, centered around the initial surge''s peak at this morning''s 2091.50 bias-up signal.

If, then...
Gapping up without reversing down through the open would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher through the morning, but wouldn''t assure any particular reaction to the afternoon''s FOMC policy statement. Gapping down or a post-open dip would make an afternoon rally likelier.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2095.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2091.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2082.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Is another lower bias objective being rejected?

The open didn''t gap up above yesterday''s highs. Its early test of the 2091.50 bias-up signal was retraced down to 2087.25 in the first of several swings around yesterday''s 2089.00 highs. Bias-up didn''t trigger at 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2080.50 bias--down signal.

And, yet...

Probing fresh highs up to 2092.75 could have invalidated the no-bias. But too deep of a retracement was still overlapping or under the 2091.50 bias-up signal at 10:30. No-bias was not invalidated.

And, yet...

That pullback resolved up to within 1 tick of the 2096.50 bias-up target. You know, the 2096.50 bias-up target that isn''t in-play. It is nevertheless resistance. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 above it would invalidate any lower objective based on not having triggered.

This is a lot of late buying pressure, excessive optimism -- which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective -- just ahead of an FOMC policy statement. The meeting isn''t expected to hike rates, which this price action risks discounting too much to maintain.

Perhaps the enthusiasm will trigger a blow-off to new highs, anyway. But I would rather buy that leg on a pullback to support, if not on a pullback under overnight lows, instead of at resistance being met by excessive optimism.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2106.25
2099.25
...would target 2112.25
2105.50
Bias-down: under 2098.25
2091.50
...would target 2092.75
2085.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday''s break lower extended down slightly Wednesday before the FOMC statement. Its reaction blipped-up, then resolved down to attack 1.1000. The drop should extend if the recent rally''s correction is underway, let alone its retracement.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Slipping momentarily down to 1089.00 was recovered quickly back into the range, where a blip-up tested 1100.00 in reaction to the FOMC statement. That resolved back down into negative territory, still likely to visit 1083.00 before a rally would be credible.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Crossing the 14.75 buy signal early Wednesday reacted up sharply to 14.90, helping to confirm the level is relevant. The surge was retraced entirely to test 14.75 as support, which held through the FOMC statements reaction.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down slightly and within Tuesday''s range still extended down Wednesday, testing the 154-00 pullback limit by several ticks. The FOMC reaction wasn''t very strong, but it recovered well back into the range. Dipping a little deeper Wednesday has made filling the gap back up to Monday''s 155-08 close likely to probe above it by at least a quarter-point -- still assuming that 154-00 holds as support.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday''s EIA report triggered a surge that tested the 49.25 buy signal -- twice, by a quarter. Its reaction down under 48.75 was too shallow to signal that longs were trapped. Closing back under 48.25 would have signaled extending down to 44.25.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Wednesday in positive territory doesn''t strengthen the pattern any further for greeting Thursday''s EIA report. But neither is it any weaker, still sitting complacently within its 2.77-2.88 range..

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2112.50
2105.50
...would target 2119.00
2112.25
Bias-down: under 2102.25
2095.50
...would target 2095.00
2088.00
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.