Day Trading Trading Signals - 07-31-2015

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2112.25
2105.50
...would target 2118.25
2111.50
Bias-down: under 2104.75
2098.00
...would target 2100.00
2093.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Having met and held its 2088.00 target during Thursday''s immediate drop, the balance of the morning ranged back up to its 2095.50 bias-down signal. This made me suspect that buying pressure was overwhelming lower attractions. In fact, the balance of the session rallied back to Wednesday''s 2104.25 FOMC-reaction high. But the rally didn''t gain traction for its effort.

Overnight action''s new info...
Very narrow flat-to-higher ranging from 2101.00 suddenly surged up to 2107.00 just after Europe''s opens. That was gradually retraced back into the earlier range, and then through it. Now a fresh low is attacking 2099.25.

If, then...
Having failed to gain traction for Thursday afternoon''s efforts, gapping up would enable the rally to resume uninterrupted and possibly also to extend considerably higher. Meanwhile, having trended up into Thursday''s close, gapping down under the afternoon''s 2098.50 low could form a "session-long decline" setup targeting at least a probe under Thursday''s lows.Regardless, this being a Friday, the morning''s bias tends to persist through the noon hour.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2096.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2098.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2108.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2105.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Pre-open rally extends enough to attract sellers.

Another reminder that there can be too much of a good thing. Extending the rally required maintaining a gap up this morning, since yesterday afternoon''s buyers didn''t gain traction for their efforts. Surging after 8:30''s econ report had extended to fresh highs at 2109.25 just before the open. And that attracted more sellers than reinforcements.

Reacting several points down immediately at the open crossed back under 2108.00. Having touched 2108.00 post-open, not recovering it at 9:45 would be unlikely to trigger the 2105.50 bias-up signal.

That extended to within 3 ticks of the 2098.00 bias-down signal. But its test has been put into play, because a half-hour of choppy narrow ranging triggered no-bias, and the bias-up signal had held its test.

Or, has it?

The 2098.00 objective could be invalidated by recovering the 2105.50 bias-up signal at 10:30. In fact, a bounce tested it just minutes before, but still failed to recover it. No-bias could still be invalidated by exiting the bias environment above the 2108.50 post-open high so long as a fresh post-open low hasn''t yet printed.

I''ve already pointed out in the chaRTroom how the first half-hour''s pattern has already foreshadowed this morning would likely range choppily, or narrowly, or both. Not optimal for trading. And now 2105.50 is being retested, which at least offers an optimal short-entry. So long as it holds as resistance, 2098.00 is in-play.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2114.75
2108.00
...would target 2119.75
2113.00
Bias-down: under 2106.00
2099.25
...would target 2100.00
2093.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having fulfilled the 1.1075 sell signal''s 1.0900 minimum objective Thursday, the pattern became vulnerable to a corrective bounce. Understatement. Gapping up Friday morning extended sharply higher to touch the same 1.1120 resistance that had contained this week''s earlier bounce. Reacting down retraced more than 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the bounce to test 1.0970 -- deep enough to trigger a new buy signal above 1.1075, while also suggesting extending any deeper would target new lows. I''ll describe this setup more thoroughly during the post-market Wrap.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another test of 1083.00 down to 1080.00 Friday was recovered quickly back above 1078.00, and then sharply higher to test 1100.00. The recovery should be obvious Monday, or else back under 1078.00 and 1083.00 would launch a new downleg .

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging through 14.75 Friday morning didn''t extend, and was actually retraced again, although 14.75 was still being tested as support to keep the pattern vulnerable to recovery.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying Thursday to within 1 tick of the 155-16 target was followed by gapping up Friday and extending higher to attack the next higher target of 156-24 to within 3 ticks. Now the rally''s momentum remains intact so long as 155-16 holds as support.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing, retesting and re-retesting the 49.25 buy signal without breaking higher was reversed down sharply Friday afternoon to probe Monday''s low under 47.00. That also triggered the 48.25 sell signal, now targeting 44.25 if confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Monday.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
After ending Thursday at the 2.77-2.88 range''s lower-end, Friday extended down further to attack 2.70, where 2.77 would become a buy signal again.