Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday's close above the prior session's range had ensured a volatile reaction to the Employment Situation report, which the 30-minute 17-point round-trip fulfilled. As did plenty of intraday inflection points that attracted reinforcements. But their follow-through repeatedly reversed into a counter-trending inflection point. Wash, rinse, repeat. Afternoon dips and their recoveries from 3322.25 predicted a high-probability late upward explosion which fulfilled its structural objective for a probe above the morning's 3345.50 high. Unfinished business at 3349.50 was only attacked to within 3 points. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Friday's late-afternoon rally had extended post-close to a fresh high attacking 3348.00. Barely bullish weekend news couldn't maintain Friday's late rally, or prevent its correction. But a quick dip down to 3335.00 was soon recovered, and then also extended through midnight to fresh highs at 3355.50 with complexity that formed a new Globex trend extreme. Sliding into greet Europe's opens attacked 3345.00, which triggered a surge retracing much of the slide. But only briefly before reversing even lower to fresh lows attacking 3343.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Last week's slugging intraday trending and extending seems to be persisting overnight. Friday's highs have been probed only briefly, albeit repeatedly. Sponsorship was inhibited last week by the stimulus package's unknown quantity and unknown timing, and now it seems inhibited by knowing the specifics. Regardless of unfinished business and other attractions above, I'm preparing for a pessimistic morning in case the market becomes doubly dissatisfied with the limited relief available from Trump's weekend orders, and Democrats not agreeing to larger relief proposals. I would expect that sentiment to start becoming obvious through the open if not sooner. Levitating through the open might not be enough to avoid a morning slide. But trending up through the open and above Friday's highs would be credible for extending. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3353.50 would be likely to trigger the 3350.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3343.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Bias-up downtrending... temporary detour. Just opening at or above Friday's highs was still within the overnight high's orbit, and likely to retest it. Trending up just halfway through the opening 15 minutes had made that retest likelier. The opening 15 minutes ended by retesting the 3355.50 overnight high to within 1 tick. Its reaction slid into the 10:00 econ report, holding the 3346.75-3348.00 gap-to-gap retracement, and recovering the 3350.50 bias-up signal. But bias-up signaled late, and hasn't yet been any more productive. As much as the rally got a benefit of the doubt, efforts to resume the open's rally have failed. As suspected, disappointment with the lack of trending has suddenly collapsed prices. Also as suspected, if sellers gained any traction that could be very productive. A 24-point collapse is probing last night's 3335.00 low and this morning's 3333.00 bias-down signal down to 3329.00. Exiting the bias window under 3333.00 would keep alive potential down to 3355.00. Meanwhile, the nearest recovery signal is back above 3343.00 -- which wouldn't be surprising, since the last high stopped pessimistically short of retracing the high, while leaving unfinished business at this morning's 3360.25 bias-up target.

MON At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3353.50 signal would target 3362.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3339.00 signal would target 3330.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3359.75 3353.50 ...would target 3368.25 3362.00 Bias-down: under 3345.25 3339.00 ...would target 3336.75 3330.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning detour retraced, but only retraced. Several post-open behaviors had suggested buyers were stronger-handed. Trending up through the open, triggering late bias-up, barely retracing 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the high's range. None of which -- not even their combination -- prevented a mid-morning collapse. Ultimately probing the bias-down signal by 4 points down to 3329.00 took RSIs oversold to require their eventual retest. Meanwhile, its reaction was enough to start signaling at least a bigger bounce underway. This morning's 3360.50 bias-up target became unfinished business. Retracing the 3350.50 bias-up signal was required, but already neutralized during the noon hour. Now the recovery's bounce has touched the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the high's range at 3354.00. This afternoon's 3353.50 bias-up signal held instead of triggering. Hovering here until the bias window begins lapsing would be postured to rally into the final hour. Probing higher anyway would require being retraced, and could produce a bigger reversal. A pullback during the no-bias window has room down to 3337.50 while still being considered only temporary.  

Sunday night's repeated probes above Friday's highs produced a new Globex trend extreme at 3355.50. Just fluctuating around Friday's highs kept the overnight high's retest likely sooner rather than later. The open did retest it to within 1 tick, and triggered late bias-up, but that wasn't good enough to avoid a collapse down to 3329.00. The 3360.25 bias-up target became unfinished business that attracted a recovery, but only up to 3357.25 as the afternoon ranged sideways through the close. Monday's new high close fulfilled the requirement created by last week's borderline breakouts and new high close on a Friday. The 3360.25 requirement can be neutralized overnight. While its reversal into Tuesday's open could leave no unfinished business to help recover, Monday's impressive intraday recover and patient afternoon consolidation suggests the rally intends to extend. That said, the initial collapse does underscore the potential for detours. The rally's next higher objective remains 3378.00-3382.00. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

TUE A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3360.25 signal would target 3374.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3348.00 signal would target 3335.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3366.75 3360.25 ...would target 3380.50 3374.00 Bias-down: under 3354.50 3348.00 ...would target 3341.50 3335.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.