Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close...
This Tuesday's reaction to the latest N. Korea missile was decidedly different than last Tuesday. Post-open action didn't rally, and overnight lows were probed. At least recovering to close back above the
2460.25-2461.25 overnight lows could have isolated intraday sellers, but they proved too strong-handed. And that was despite having trended up since exiting the noon hour off of
2445.50. An uptrend that nearly fulfilled an attraction to "higher prior lows" at
2461.00.
Overnight action's new info...
Extending after the cash session close came within 2 tick of
2461.00, and its reaction slid to
2456.50. Recovering to fresh highs through Europe's opens extended to
2463.25, which also reacted down to
2456.50. Now
2461.00 resistance is being retested.
If, then...
If Tuesday morning's drop had satisfied selling pressure, then the session would have closed above a relevant level. It didn't. Sunday night's
2460.25-2461.25 lows were higher, and Wednesday's
2460.00 prior highs were only overlapped, and not until the final minute(s). So, the market has 2-3 choices -- down, down, or up. Flat like the overnight range isn't likely to be repeated intraday. Reversing down this morning is likely, whether to extend the decline, or to try forming a better base for launching a recovery. Extending up would be credible if begun by gapping open above relevant resistance, which is essentially this morning's
2466.75 bias-up target. Only triggering the
2461.00 bias-up signal would be suspicious.
First Trade...
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above
2464.00 would be likely to trigger the
2461.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under
2459.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation...
good morning and welcome it is Tuesday at Stanford Tuesday's Morning Market or hope everyone had a good weekend couple know well maybe one down here at the top Adobe is pushing some sort of a product release or upgrade or update I'm singing notification of it and I'm sure you are too whether you are or not I will have more information on that in the next couple of days it looks like it's something that we have to implement by the end of the week so I'll be on that and let you know the market so Friday I made a couple comments at the close comment one was Monday's holidays really a company to buy significant price action by significant okay so it's also rarely accompanied by a North Korean missile launch but that's what it took to get some significant price action which was a tremendous cab down Sunday night notice the influence of a couple things here number one was that the recovery really through Monday morning Monday or Monday at 1 is when the holiday session closed this is that down trending resistance that we've been tracking down trending pivotal resistance off the pivotal High bisecting the actual High through the key High it was influential on Thursday to Thursday when is it was influential last week Thursday on Friday afternoon and last Tuesday nights reaction also remained Under Pressure until the open and we expected that to hold in the launcher rally and it did big of a rally as was possible but still being within the context of just a temporary correction what's to prevent last night or Sunday nights reaction and extension through Monday and last night from also launching a recovering couple things but they're not decisive first of all last week's drop as I described or last week's plunge was able to accelerate and complete a correction that was underway this week is hitting a vulnerability this week is hitting the market that was vulnerable because it's rally had extended literally expended all available buying pressure without yet proving it was anything more than a temporary correction and higher would have been more than a little correct or more than a temporary correction and would have been able to tell us decisively today this plunge going to be recovered we don't have that that luxury today last week's High came right into that sweet spot avoiding the pivotal Heidi actual High being in August the pivotal I haven't printed that is what was the actual High until being exceeded the pivotal High 2480 50 being attacked but avoided on Friday touching that would have all been insured new rally leg underway will end of the 2500 handle so that sweet spot basically made the market vulnerable to reaction down another difference just to point out that might actually counter-intuitively prevent or inhibitor recovery is that last week's reaction down was about 21 or 22 points last night's reaction was a little tamer little less substantial so which is it is the market conditioned to accept it has the market been conditioned to accept a nuclear North Korea which seems to be the political effort underway and so they'll just sell off and I need your pavlovian conditioning reaction expecting a recovery or with another missile being reported on already working its way to the launch pad and presumably about to be triggered itself there for a bad to produce another plunge shallower as it may be or whatever just waiting for that may be inhibiting a recovering so it's going to be tough to produce a recovery if everybody's looking for another launch which last week wasn't so much the case last week there wasn't anything out there that was suggesting anything impending and nothing was intended and it didn't come in till the weekend and now there is something in pending and that may prove that made turn the market more into sellers of strength as opposed to buying this plunge for the purpose of resuming the rally bottom line is I keep an eye on this down training resistance it'll be displayed on the three minute chart on the left we'll see where we open right now we're trading 69 69 is this morning's biosignals support until it's broken to break through testing resistance testing and and there's not a lot of support here back to Thursdays lose because Thursday's we test of its opening low as chipped away at its support already this kind of an air pocket there so even though 2464 what 2464 is the bias down Target anything lower really doesn't have much it looks like there's some blue Kotori support their of course but it's been tested and retested so not a lot of reliability for preventing and deeper dip and we start falling off the cliff here we've got those ahead on Wednesday Tuesday night and Gap Town on Wednesday and reporting that Sunday night's Gap up to 3953 940 be tested but as deep of or is extracted as this range this congestion is Ben I do think we're even in the most bearish scenario going to have to test the actual eyes and then reverse down before having any degree of confidence that a new down like is underway Long Pond little jump that it needed from haven't closed under at least overlapping if not closing under this pull-back limit range so gapping up helps to reject the clothes under it to the degree that was a close under it and not still overlapping it but we still have unfinished business of the Gap up above all prize actually not above the prior rally some overlap hear the dees doesn't really displayed as well as up that you can see the so on the way to .