Day Trading Trading Signals - 09-08-2015

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1923.50 1921.50 ...would target  1929.00  1927.00 Bias-down: under  1914.25  1912.25 ...would target  1909.00  1907.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Friday's gap down to 1920.50 ranged sideways into the noon hour, holding two tests of 1930.00. A late break to 1908.00 was recovered to retest the morning's highs, but he close settled back around the 1920.50 open. Sellers gained no traction for their efforts. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open ranged sideways for awhile, but had rallied to test 1944.00 by midnight, +14 points from Friday's close. Its reaction down into Monday's Globex close held 1930.00 as support. Opening there last night bounced again, but even a more substantial rally has been underway up to 1961.00, +39 points from Friday's close. If, then... Greeting the week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. The gap up indicated for Tuesday's open is attacking natural resistance at 1960.50 which the rally seems intent on testing. But there's still room to become even more extreme up to 1963.25 and 1967.25. Testing either one at the open would be likelier to reverse back down. The likelihood for extending higher would become suspicious if pullbacks didn't hold 1956.50. First Trade... Today's bias parameters are far below, so not very relevant. I'll have levels on-screen in the chaRTroom.

Pre-open dip extends too low and for too long, but is that phase done? As we discussed during the pre-market Tour, resuming the overnight rally above 1961.00 would be likelier if its reaction down could stay away from 1952.00 or at least reject its test quickly. It did neither. But the test of 1952.00 did eventually try to recover. It peaked at 1959.25, whose recovery would have confirmed the pre-open dip had failed. Testing its resistance so late served a different purpose, reversing down to fresh lows under 1950.00. The consequence to a sentiment extreme was a pullback to 1944.00. Not suffering the consequence this morning would have required a deeper consequence later. But 1944.00 has been touched, offsetting the extreme sentiment's optimism with pessimism. Exiting the bias environment under the low of 1944.00's test (which happens to be 1944.00) would suggest the that a deeper consequence lay in store, anyway. Meanwhile, the nearest buy signal is currently 1950.50.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1954.25 1952.25 ...would target  1959.75  1957.75 Bias-down: under  1947.00  1945.00 ...would target  1940.75  1938.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Firming Tuesday didn't quite exploit last week's failed breakout, but almost any initial strength Tuesday night or Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The pullback had extended slightly lower to test 1115.00, which was retested Tuesday without breaking lower. Back above 1125.70 would suggest the pullback had ended -- it was touched Tuesday but not pierced. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Weekend weakness still avoided filling the outstanding opening gap at 14.35 that presumably has been inhibiting a recovery from launching. But that may be left outstanding by a rally leg if not being filled soon. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday's sudden pop above a multi-session range had never extended higher intraday, and it held tests of its 155-16 buy signal. Gapping down Tuesday back toward the prior range all but ensures probing under it to fresh lows before another bounce would be credible for extending higher. Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Holiday weakness never touched the prior low, or probed under it to threaten reversing down. There is no required timing for retesting the recent high and probing above 50.00. Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Firming off of the lower-end of the recent narrow range only attacked the upper-end. That restrained optimism isn't new, but it still makes credible any early strength Wednesday for extending higher.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1970.50 1968.50 ...would target  1978.25  1976.25 Bias-down: under  1961.25 1959.25 ...would target  1956.00  1954.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.