Day Trading Trading Signals - 09-30-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... For never committing either way, Tuesday's session ranged widely. The first hour offered a glimpse by its opening dip to fresh lows at 1866.00 which then reacted up to 1890.00. Trending down through the noon hour was corrected during the bias environment, and then extended to even lower lows until the last half-hour. The lowest low stopped 2 ticks optimistically short of touching the 1861.00 overnight low before reacting up. The impatient buying persisted, extending the reaction up to the 1877.00 bias environment exit. Overnight action's new info... Tuesday afternoon's sellers had gained traction by entering the final hour under bias environment low, and then extending through the 3:10-3:20 timing window. But the evening's 7-point dip to 1871.00 reacted up sharply, and extensively. Last week's 1897.00-1899.00 lows are now being probed above 1900.00. If, then... Whatever traction gained by yesterday afternoon's sellers can be rendered moot by a gap up maintained above the session's 1890.00 high and by trending up through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Failing either condition still might not reverse back down immediately, but extending any higher would be only temporary. Extending higher only temporarily can still be pretty productive, up to 1904.75 or to 1915.00 -- retesting yesterday's lows from too high and after too long would find expended buyers unable to prevent a deeper decline. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1897.00 would be likely also to exceed the 1892.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. The renewed bias-up signal is next targeting 1899.00.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1910.00 1899.75 ...would target  1914.75  1904.75 Bias-down: under  1902.00  1892.00 ...would target  1096.25  1886.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Wide swings ahead of Yellen. Buyers have been productive, but they haven't gained traction. First, this morning's probes of higher and higher highs each overlapped the 1904.75 objective that was next in-line above 1997.00-1999.00.

At least its eventual reaction down avoided probing under the morning's 1892.00 bias-up target until after the bias environment had lapsed. It was still probed, considerably, to within 2-3 ticks of this afternoon's 1886.00 bias-down target. But the next bias timing window was exited back above the bias-down signal -- coincidentally, also 1892.00.

Now another bounce is exploiting that late unsustained selling, now testing 1902.00. But this is the second instance of productive buying, which isn't gaining traction. Being a no-bias environment, its range should be defined by its bias signals. And since 1899.75 is this afternoon's bias-up signal, probing above it should be retraced.

Actually, the afternoon's 1899.75 bias-up signal is being retraced now. Often, the consequence of probing it prematurely also includes retracing the 1:20 print -- that's 1895.50.

Back under 1898.25 would target 1895.50. It would also create potential for retesting the noon hour's lows, and lower. Retracing all of the rally from yesterday's low isn't required today, but it is required.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Having gone out Tuesday still testing the 1.1265 bounce limit, gapping down Wednesday suggests the outstanding objectives to fresh lows are back in-play. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Gapping down $6 to 1120.50 Wednesday quickly extended down to the 1117.00 target. It was probed intraday under 1111.00, but the close was back to testing 1117.00 as resistance. Closing lower Thursday would target new lows, but the pullback has otherwise ended. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Fresh relative lows intraday Wednesday still managed to recover back up to 14.50 to avoid putting into play fresh lows under 14.20. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Gapping down Wednesday similarly to Tuesday resolved differently, at least so far, but not recovering to fresh highs. Just consolidating narrowly barely avoided actually filling the gap back up to Tuesday's close, but clearly avoided triggering the 156-16 sell signal. Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Narrow flat ranging in the wake of Tuesday's post-close API data and Wednesday morning's EIA report doesn't reflect strength. But neither is it any more predictive than the pattern already in-play, and looking for 42.80 below. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Ending Tuesday by still only overlapping last Thursday's 2.59 low hardly inhibited Wednesday from extending down much more deeply to test 2.51. This new low is not greeting Thursday's EIA report from a position of strength.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1919.75 1909.75 ...would target  1925.00  1915.00 Bias-down: under  1909.75  1899.75 ...would target 1903.00  1893.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Wednesday morning's sellers didn't push down hard enough early enough, or hold down long enough, to reverse the intraday trend. They did absorb the probes above 1904.75, but didn't react down under 1902.00 in time to require an intraday probe under Tuesday's lows. Then despite extending that reaction to test the 1892.00 and 1886.00 afternoon bias parameters, both had been recovered as the bias environment began. Sellers gained no traction for the energy they expended. The minimum consequence was to retest the selling's origin, i.e. the morning's highs that were testing 1904.75. The range for noise above it at 1909.75 was likely to be included. The target was fulfilled. Still overlapping it at the close prevented putting into play the next higher target, or signaling that its test had held. Extending higher anyway would next target 1915.00 with room for noise up to 1921.25. Rallying any higher would undermine Wednesday's rally from being retraced anytime soon -- soon enough for its retest to hold and potentially launch a more durable rally. Meanwhile, having trended up into Wednesday's close, gapping down Thursday under the afternoon's 1893.00 low could form a "session-long decline." Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzxzrs

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:  XP-Friendly   ||   non-xp ilinc

NOTE: I WILL BE TESTING WEBEX SOFTWARE INTERMITTENTLY, SO RE-TRY IF UNAVAILABLE.