VISUALIZE [snapshot] IDENTIFY [sponsorship] VISUALIZE [snapshot] IDENTIFY [sponsorship] DO IT [styles] WED P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: VISUALIZE [snapshot] IDENTIFY [sponsorship] DO IT [styles] SUMMARY - characterize the session: THU A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Pre-Open Market Bias - 7:29 AM
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Recap/Indication: The 3835 overnight high was reversed through Tue's open to 3811 but quickly reversed back up to fresh highs at 3867. The rally was derailed from extending higher when FTX headlines triggered a collapse to 3793. Almost all of which was recovered to 3856 before sliding to 3825 through the close -- correcting 50% of the intraday recovery.
Overnight summary: Ranging sideways 3830-3844 through U.S. election results finally broke lower, extending Europe's weakness down to 3812. That brief probe was soon reversed back up into the earlier range.
Influences/Catalysts: Still no high-profile econ reports, but a late-morning Fed speaker appears.
Setups/Patterns: Closing AT 3835 Tue undermined the 3880 target, but at least 3835 wasn't rejected at the close. Overbought RSIs at Tue's 3867 intraday high require retest.
Traction/Isolation: Intraday collapse isolated sellers. Unless Wed gaps down under Tue's low, buyers will be rewarded at least back to the 3867 intraday high (and its overbought RSIs).
Objectives/Limits: UP: 3863, 3877-3880, 3892... DOWN: 3768.
Alternative: Vulnerability to retesting Tue's "V" bottom -- or at least duplicating its overnight 61.8% retrace.
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Day Trading Post Open Signals - 10:54 AM
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Recap/Indication: Post-open action has developed exclusively at or under the bias-down parameters. Triggering an immediately actionable sell signal was likely to be quickly fulfilled, and the break under 3812 did extend to the 3802 retrace and 3799 gap proxy. The lows' retest by a sentiment extreme did bounce back to the 3823 bias-down signal, but triggering it has extended to retest the lows again.
Influences/Catalysts: Yesterday afternoon's recovery of the FTX collapse may be unwinding because Bitcoin continues falling and Binance's offer is non-binding.
Setups/Patterns (Bias/Labels): BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET.
Traction/Isolation: Price action so far is contained within yesterday's lows, but next lower targets would probe it, and then rely on recovering quickly to isolate the lower lows.
Alternative: Not isolating fresh lows could extend the decline below its 3785 and 3777 targets.
Triggers/Tactics: Sell bounce and bounce limit tests for the likelihood of fresh lows extending to 3785 and 3777.
Objectives/Limits: UP: 3863, 3877-3880, 3892... DOWN: 3785, 3777, 3768.
CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3826, targeting 3841.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3797, targeting 3785.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Market Mid-Day Predictions - 1:47 PM
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Recap/Indication: Sellers are still being fulfilled quickly, but not producing accumulation. Piercing yesterday's FTX collapse low down to 3788 could have isolated sellers but was too brief and shallow and its reaction gained no traction. Now triggering this afternoon's bias-down and already fulfilling its target is extending sharply lower to 3772. Unfinished business at 3768 is nearby and on the way to 3763-3766.
Influences/Catalysts: BTC still seems to be leading stocks lower, anxiousness ahead of tomorrow's CPI.
Setups/Patterns: BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET, oversold RSIs at 3772.
Traction/Isolation: Attempt to isolate retest of yesterday's low failed.
Alternative: Pre-CPI paralysis could inhibit further trending, leaving 3768 and oversold RSIs outstanding for a flat-to-higher afternoon.
Triggers/Tactics: Still anticipating lower lows until bounce limit is violated, especially if off of a lower target's test.
CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:
Market Summary - 4:32 PM
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Wed's gap down from Tue's 3835 close to 3813 bounced optimistically short of Tue's 3892 low then failed its impatient isolation attempt. Two bias-downs extended through 3768 unfinished business, which happens also to be a 61.8% retrace of the 3704-3867 bounce from week-old lows.
Setups in-play: Prior leg's 61.8%+ retrace now attracted to its River Styx at 3727, perhaps only to 3742.
Setups resolved: Tue's probe above 3835 is rejected, formally taking 3880 off the table.
Trending/ranging: Under 3727 would confirm the week-old bounce has failed and the 2-week old decline has resumed.
Traction/Isolation: Retracing deeper than 61.8% of the week-old upleg gives its sponsorship traction, unless Thu's open gaps up significantly.
Influences/catalysts: FTX/BTC still spooking markets... Nothing suggests Wed's decline was at all focused on discounting Thu's pre-open CPI, so while a favorable surprise could trigger a big bounce, unfavorable data could still extend Wed's drop -- at least initially, since starting the current dip would have been optimal if begun before Tue afternoon.
Objectives/limits: UP: 3781, 3811... DOWN: 3742, 3727, 3690.
Scheduled/Monitoring: CPI pre-open Thu, Fed speakers.
CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:
Tomorrow's Day Trading Strategy - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3769, targeting 3784.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3746, targeting 3731.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.