Day Trading Trading Signals - 11-12-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's open under 2082.00 was already rejecting the overnight rally to 2087.00. The rejection extended down to 2069.50. Bouncing through the noon hour to 2082.50 essentially duplicated the overnight rally, including its reaction down back to 2069.50. Overnight action's new info... Slightly lower lows tested 2068.00. That didn't prevent bounces to 2075.00 and 2077.50, and they didn't prevent dropping to fresh lows attacking 2065.00. Now another bounce is testing positive territory by attacking 2071.00. If, then... The overnight volatility is impressive. It continued yesterday's pattern. Continuing yesterday's pattern is the basis for suspecting that a fresh post-open low could be retraced, rejected and reversed to launch a new rally leg into the afternoon. So, until disproved by failing to recover from under Monday's 2062.00 low through a relevant timing window, the pattern remains accumulative. The market doesn't seem to be pursuing the alternative path higher which is to gap up -- but that could change in a couple of hours, as it has changed from just several hours ago. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2066.75 would be likely to trigger the 2068.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2072.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2068.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2076.00 would be likely to trigger the 2073.75 bias-up signal.

Absorbing the open's gap down isn't succeeding. Testing 2055.25 indicated one more lower low likely at 2054.00. The open's bounce to 2060.00 resolved down to 2054.00 and reacted up. But not back up to 2060.00 before retracing entirely. The next reaction up got a little higher, but still not back up to 2060.00 before retracing to another fresh low at 2053.25. The bullish scenario would have reacted up just once from a fresh post-open low. Dipping again could still recover if rejected without delay. But the third dip was overkill --no longer accumulative and getting too close to 10:15/10:30 for a bullish signal by then.

None of which is necessarily bearish. It might be bearish, or it's just not immediately bullish. Lower lows aren't required, but rallying now during the bias-down environment would be suspicious.

The renewed bias-down target at 2056.75 was being overlapped at 10:15 to avoid doubly renewing the bias-down signal. That's also not necessarily bullish or bearish. But it does suggest that even the most bearish scenario would bounce first -- even if only to higher prior lows at 2065.00 or 2070.00. That said, there's no bullish reason for a fresh low under 2053.245

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2066.50 2061.25 ...would target  2072.00  2067.00 Bias-down: under  2059.00  2054.00 ...would target 2053.00  2047.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Fresh session lows attacking new support. The first hour had ranged choppily between 2054.00-2060.00 before launching a surge. It was too late to be sponsored by weak hands. Too late, and too early. Just at the prospect of surging I had warned already it would be only temporary. Peaking 1 point short of its potential at 2063.50, the surge was retraced back into the 2054.00-2060.00 range. The consequence of the inappropriately-timed surge was new session low. And now a noon hour drop is testing 2049.00. That's almost within 1 point of this afternoon's 2047.75 bias-down target. And the target won't be put into play if its 2054.00 bias-down signal is recovered at 1:20 (a bounce is probing it now by 1 point).

Meanwhile, another setup may be forming -- the Lunch Hour reversal. It is triggered by isolating a fresh session extreme to this timing window. So, recovering noon's 2056.00 print coming out of the noon hour would presumably reject the interim probe under the morning's lows.

The Lunch Hour reversal may be today's last opportunity to launch a rally. Even then, recovering 2056.00 would be allowed up to one retest of the noon hour's low. Anything lower would point down a lot.

The decline steepened during the afternoon. Opportunities to avoid extending the decline were ignored. Final action in the close never became capitulative, which isn't bullish from a contrarian perspective. Having finally broken free from testing the noon hour's 2049.00 low, a 9-10 point probe was likely. That was met, but only barely, and only after the close. It's more vulnerable to extending down than to reversing, next targeting 2034.50 and 2032.00. And they're in-play without delay so long as bounces hold 2050.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: To view this recording: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzbpkk

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at: non-xp ilinc

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2053.50 2048.50 ...would target  2058.50  2053.50 Bias-down: under  2044.75 2039.75 ...would target 2039.50  2034.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.