Day Trading Trading Signals - 12-19-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Friday's quadruple witch expiration open gapped up to only attack the 2264.00 overnight high, which was also the morning's bias-up signal. Price almost immediately began trending down, extending to test 2250.00 as support coming out of the noon hour. The decline stopped there, as the bullish WedEX would begin influencing price at the bias environment's entry. Although no new low printed, bounces up to 2255.00 never actually reversed the trend up as a president's press conference grabbed attention. Overnight action's new info... Opening flat with Friday's 2255.00 close lasted only several seconds before surging to 2259.50. The surge lasted only several seconds before it stopped, suddenly. And durably. Choppy sideways ranging since the open's surge has been relatively narrow, contained between 2257.00-2261.00. The lower-end is now being retested. If, then... The open's surge suggests that Friday's ranging at session lows was actually pent-up buying pressure. That would comport with the assumption that bullish WedEX was inhibited by coinciding with the president's press conference. That doesn't assure gapping up, or avoid gapping down, And only the opening action can offer any further assurance of the bullish WedEX influencing this morning's action. If it does, then price should trend up, possibly aggressively. Not already rallying obviously past the open could suggest no bullish influence, and open the door to resolving "unfinished business below" at 2243.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2261.50 would be likely to trigger the 2260.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2257.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Early surge finally extends higher. The overnight rally to 2260.75 created room to expend selling pressure without it yet damaging the chart. Pre-open action had pulled back to 2256.00. Holding 2255.00 post-open would have been optimal. Ultimately, the gap back to Friday's 2254.00 cash session close was touched. And then price shot higher. The opening 15 minutes of volatility to resolve up aggressively. This was an early clue to confirming a bullish WedEX influence remained alive for this morning. The next clue did not develop, as bias-up did not trigger. More so, a post-open test of the 2260.25 bias-up signal held, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2251.25 bias-down signal. No grace period was invoked, and fresh highs through 10:30 didn't invalidate the bias signal. But fresh highs did print after 10:30. And the pattern's 2259.75 buy signal got a benefit of the doubt from the bullish WedEX. That has extended up to 2263.50. No matter how productive, the bullish WedEX lapses along with this morning's bias environment at 11:30. And that's now within view just 10-15 minutes away. The 2251.25 bias-down signal's test will become "unfinished business below" unless the noon hour is entered above this morning's 2267.25 bias-up target.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2265.25 2261.00 ...would target  2271.25  2267.25 Bias-down: under  2259.00  2255.00 ...would target  2254.75  2250.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Time growing short to avoid new downdraft. Ultimately, this morning's rally only attacked 2264.00. That's still productive for the bullish WedEX. Negative territory was never touched, Friday's highs were probed, and the rally was comprised of two aggressive uplegs. It wasn't influential enough to recover the 2260.25 bias-up signal by 10:15 to trigger it, or by 10:30 to invalidate no-bias -- or to recover the 2267.25 bias-up target by 10:30. So, a test of this morning's 2251.25 bias-down signal has become "unfinished business below." The WedEX influence lapsed with the morning bias environment. It is no longer influential. Triggering this afternoon's 2261.00 bias-up signal would still be credible. Otherwise, back under 2257.50 would at least threaten the 2255.00 bias-down signal.

Were terrorist actions around the globe responsible for derailing Monday afternoon's attempt at rallying to fresh highs? Possibly in the same degree that Friday afternoon's presidential conference inhibited the bullish WedEX. Of course, Monday's distraction was more serious, and the price reaction trended down instead of ranging sideways. But already rallying at Tuesday's open would put into play new highs. Not already rallying at Tuesday's open would be more vulnerable to launching a deep corrective dip before seasonal bullishness takes over into the weekend. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2265.00 2262.00 ...would target  2270.00  2267.25 Bias-down: under  2257.25  2253.25 ...would target 2248.75  2247.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.