Day Trading Trading Signals - 12-27-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Friday's open was essentially flat around 2257.00. Thursday night, like Wednesday night, had rallied briefly up to 2261.00. But intraday Friday, like intraday Thursday, had traded only lower. Friday's low was nearly 3 points higher than Thursday's, and also satisfied its 2254.00 to within 1 tick. Three days of holiday weekend illiquidity didn't attract sponsorship for resolving in either direction. But a last-minute surge to 2260.25 greeted the weekend. Overnight action's new info... Last night's narrow 2-point range has suddenly, and only recently, surged 3-1/2 points to 2261.50. That's above both Thursday and Friday's ranges, and above the two overnight ranges preceding them. This morning's 2261.25 bias-up signal is resisting the surge. It's also a third consecutive overnight higher high -- the prior two were rejected before the open, and now RSIs are diverging negatively on this one. If, then... Low-volume environments can form patterns, but none are very predictive. That would apply equally to Friday's late surge, as it would to Thursday's opening slide. Today's open is in position to be greeted unchanged from Wednesday's close, when a Symmetrical Triangle had just begun breaking lower. If Thursday and Friday were the pattern's false break, then a relatively larger rally can reveal itself at any time. Delaying it until late-morning for a shallow dip would be possible, but another downleg this morning wouldn't be appropriate unless today is trending down. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2264.00 would be likely to trigger the 2261.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2259.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Uptrend is anchored. Gapping up to 2262.50 immediately surged. The 2266.00 bias-up target was touched, which also served as the high of a Running Correction. The consolidation resolved up as aggressively as it was entered, quickly testing 2269.25. The hour since then has plateaued there. This is a renewed bias-up environment, having exceeded the bias-up target through 10:15. Its renewed bias-up target is essentially a retest of the 2273.00 high, presumably to 2275.50 or 2278.25. Meanwhile, the uptrend faces a challenge from that sequence around the Running Correction -- surging into and out of it, then plateauing. A pullback to the consolidation's lower quadrant would be common before resuming the rally. That's either 2264.75 or 2263.50. Any deeper would start to be bearish, but the anchored gap up minimizes that chance. The plateau can also resolve up, ignoring a corrective dip. Yes, its eventual reversal down would be more substantial, if not also durable. But it resolving up first would essentially marginalize sellers until new highs are probed. So, if short or shorting, even if only for a temporary corrective dip, beware a break above 2270.00.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2274.50  2270.00 ...would target  2280.00  2275.50 Bias-down: under  2268.00 2263.50 ...would target  2262.00  2257.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning's rally has been corrected. After rallying this morning to 2269.50, the 2264.75 pullback target was met. Ninety minutes ago. Repeatedly piercing it by 1 tick -- and by 1 errant tick -- atill has room for noise down to 2263.50. That's this afternoon's bias-down signal, and it didn't trigger. Meanwhile, this morning's pattern had been likely to test 2264.75. And the likely resolution resolution to its test is to resume the morning's rally. Price has firmed to test 2266.00, and is free to accelerate its pace. This being a no-bias environment, this afternoon's 2270.00 bias-up signal should define the window's upper-end if tested. Regardless, extending to retest the 2273.00 prior high would target 2275.50 and possibly 2278.25. There's no bullish reason not to resume the rally coming out of the bias environment.

[We've begun starting daily Market Wrap before the close at 3:33pm ET. Other tweaks are coming soon. Please share your feedback in this blog post's comments section or email me directly. Thank you!] Tuesday's resolution was disappointing. Partly for the promise of the open's surge, which set quite a different tone for the day than its result. Not diametrically different -- the trend didn't reverse back down. But the session was spent retracing the open's surge, not extending it. Tuesday's closing action didn't make a rally any easier. The afternoon had repeatedly held 2264.75 support, but broke it down to 2261.50 through the futures close. The cash session close equated to 2264.00, preserving enough of the open's gain to avoid rejecting it. So, is the rally resuming? Probably. And its objective is to retest the 2273.00 high, up to 2275.50 or 2278.25. Otherwise, Tuesday's opening surge can still be rejected by gapping down Wednesday under 2259.00. This would suggest that Monday's rally was no more predictive than last Thursday and Friday. And it would suggest that last Thursday and Friday's lows will be probed, below 2249.50 and 2243.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2270.75 2266.50 ...would target  2276.50  2272.50 Bias-down: under  2263.00 2259.00 ...would target 2257.75  2253.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.