VISUALIZE [snapshot] IDENTIFY [sponsorship] VISUALIZE [snapshot] IDENTIFY [sponsorship] DO IT [styles] THU P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: VISUALIZE [snapshot] IDENTIFY [sponsorship] DO IT [styles] SUMMARY - characterize the session: FRI A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Professional Pre-Open Trading Plan - 7:34 AM
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Recap/Indication: Wed's 3813 gap down from Tue's 3835 close went on to trigger two bias-downs that extended to 3750 at the Position-squaring window's low.
Overnight summary: Narrow flat-to-higher ranging has gradually firmed to attack, pierce, and slightly probe the 3868 bias-up signal up to 3772, now reacting down to 3663.
Influences/Catalysts: pre-open CPI, to a lesser extent Jobless Claims, both at 8:30. Fed speakers follow.
Setups/Patterns: Nothing suggests Wed's decline was at all focused on discounting today's CPI, and overnight firming isn't optimistic enough to be considered from a contrarian perspective... But the shallow sideways range could qualify as a too-late-to-break setup if trending isn't attempted until the 8:30 econ reports' reaction... Meanwhile, not immediately rejecting yesterday's cumulative 61.8%+ retrace of the prior upleg has triggered River Styx measurements at 3742 and 3727.
Traction/Isolation: Retracing deeper than 61.8% of the week-old upleg gives its sponsorship traction, unless Thu's open gaps up significantly -- and even that could be only temporary.
Objectives/Limits: UP: 3781, 3811... DOWN: 3742, 3727, 3690.
Alternative: Gapping up through 3788 and extending through 3800 could trigger a morning surge that substantially retraces recent highs.
CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:
Stock Market Morning Strategy - 10:49 AM
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Recap/Indication: Avoiding a bearish morning required gapping up significantly. Spiking up 100 points wasn't necessary, and extending to the 3894 open was overkill. Its post-open reaction took advantage of room down to 3874 before even suggesting more than a temporary dip. Blipping-down under it to 3871 snapped back up to fulfill the headline reaction's highest calculable target 3918 by 6 ticks. Now the target is reacting down to 3894.
Influences/Catalysts: Fed speakers speaking to the 50bp rate hike expectations.
Setups/Patterns (Bias/Labels): BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED.
Traction/Isolation: Next higher targets above 3835 at 3877-3880 is now support to maintaining the rally's resumption, isolating the interim FTX reaction. Back under 3835 would isolate CPI's reaction.
Alternative: Resuming the rally into the afternoon would next target 3929 and 3954.
Triggers/Tactics: Now that the extended target is met, looking for a pullback.
Objectives/Limits: UP: 3929, 3954... DOWN: 3877-3880, 3835.
CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:
Tonight's Day Trading Strategy - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3941, targeting 3954.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3924, targeting 3911.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Day Trading Mid-Day Update - 1:47 PM
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Recap/Indication: Recall from this morning that avoiding a bearish morning had required gapping up significantly -- spiking up 100 points wasn't necessary, and then further extending to the 3894 open was overkill. Testing its 3874 pullback limit enabled resuming the rally to probe its 3929 target to 3936. Now another correction to 3905 is trying to refuel the rally for extending to 3954, now bouncing to 3929, despite already triggering bias-down. A deeper pullback could extend to 3835.
Influences/Catalysts: Tomorrow's pre-open Consumer Sentiment may begin inhibiting trending, less so backing-and-filling.
Setups/Patterns: BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET.
Traction/Isolation: The noon hour exit retraced back down from testing two targets, threatening to isolate their tests if not recovered through the close.
Alternative: Ignoring inhibition from tomorrow's post-open econ report and this afternoon's CPI, back above 3928 could resume the rally already.
Triggers/Tactics: Watching the bias-down window's exit for signs of trending or trending attempts in either direction.
Objectives/Limits: UP: 3929, 3954... DOWN: 3877-3880, 3835.
CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:
Closing Thoughts on the Market Today - 4:32 PM
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Overnight optimism was too shallow to be contrarian, helping pre-open CPI headline reaction spike up 100 points from 3766 and higher to Thu's 3894 open. The headline extension's targets were tested up to 3936, where a noon hour dip to 3905 refueled the rally, extending into the final hour to 3965.
Setups in-play: Headline reaction, its next higher target above 3919 was 3954, now 3979... Paradigm shift, abruptly reversing session-long trending with session-long trending in the opposite direction.
Setups resolved: Tue's overbought RSIs at 3867 were neutralized.
Trending/ranging: Paradigm shifts typically back-and-fill or reverse the following day, having expended all available sponsorship by reversing session-long trending with session-long trending in the opposite direction.
Traction/Isolation: Extending Fri instead of at least correcting could be exacerbated by Friday Factors, but that was probably already a function off Thu's outsized rally.
Influences/catalysts: Veteran's Day, Paradigm shift in market direction, solidifying hopes of Fed "slowing" to 50bp hikes.
Objectives/limits: UP: 3979, 4012... DOWN: 3877-3880, 3835.
Scheduled/Monitoring: Post-open Consumer Sentiment, Gov bond market closed.
CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:
Tomorrow's Market Predictions - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3969, targeting 3988.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3947, targeting 3933.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.