Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Trending down through Thu's close into Globex eventually extended under the 3863 and 3848 bias-down parameters, and to 3838 through Fri's choppy open. Flat-lining through the noon hour at 3844-3847 broke lower into the bias window and plunged to the 3821 bias-down target. The final hour reversed up sharply to probe the bias-up target by 2 points to 3868, closing at 3861.
Overnight price points : Volatility is exploding after 3 days without a trade, and upside targets are holding their tests. Globex gapped up 40 points to the 3899 target, and then collapsed 57 points to the 3843 bias-down target. Recovering 3861 unchanged by midnight extended through  Europe's opens to higher highs at the 3907 target. Another collapse is now testing the 3872 bias-up signal to 3870.
Catalysts : Year's first trading day, overnight volatility.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Gap & Pause, 3839 isolations, Already (still?) recovered overnight dip.
Their influences :
- The 2-week old Gap & Pause setup that still forecasts trending above its 3919 high, so it's interesting that its 3907 61.8% retrace was prominently influential as the overnight high...
- Last week's additional rejected probes under 3839 seem to be getting rewarded for isolating sellers, but so far only overnight...
- There's a masochistic tendency for the intraday crowd to duplicate already recovered overnight dips -- not a requirement but a tendency, and usually when the dip defines initial action (instead, this instance's dip is a reversal from fresh highs).

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : Regardless of the overnight strength's brevity -- twice -- its substantial range into positive territory keeps alive the Santa Claus Rally potential, which extends through tomorrow. Also seemingly intact is rewarding buyers for isolating sellers under 3839. And since the second overnight rally peaked at the 3907 61.8% retrace of the 2-week old Gap & Pause setup's afternoon range, its influence is presumably intact, too. This current, second downleg is so far holding the bias-up signal as support, and back above 3881 would start to trigger a recovery targeting 3897-3899. Its recovery would target the overnight high's retest and potentially much higher.
Alternative : Overnight constructs are relevant intraday only to the extent that they influence the first 15 minutes. Exiting that window at 9:45 back under 3872-3877 and 3863 would become increasingly likely to duplicate the already recovered overnight drop.
Levels : UP: 3877, 3891-99, 3897-99, 3907, 3911… DOWN: 3858-63, 3833, 3786.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Volatility is exploding after 3 days without a trade, and upside targets are holding their tests. Globex gapped up 40 points to test 3899, then collapsed 57 points to the 3843 bias-down target. Reversing up through midnight and Europe's opens extended to 3907. Another collapse tested the 3872 bias-up signal to 3870.
New price points : The open's dip to 3872 reacted up quickly to 3901, then reversed down quicker and more substantially to duplicate the already recovered overnight dip by an extra 5 points to 3837. At least 1-minute RSI is diverging positively on the retest of 3839.
Catalysts : Year's first trading day, overnight volatility.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : BIAS... Gap & Pause, 3839 isolations.
Their influences :
- The 2-week old Gap & Pause setup that still forecasts trending above its 3919 high, so it's interesting that its 3907 61.8% retrace was prominently influential as the overnight high...
- Last week's additional rejected probes under 3839 seem to have been rewarded for isolating sellers, but so far only overnight.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Two strong uplegs probing multi-session highs overnight and a third intraday aren't bearish if their reactions hold support. Even less bearish if probes under support are recovered. And recovering the tests of 3848 and 3858-3863 would suggest that sellers had failed to gain traction for reversing the three strong uplegs.
Alternative : The three retraced uplegs can be considered distributive if a timing window is exited under relevant support. One candidate is 3839, which is now being tested. Entering the noon hour any lower would suggest sellers are taking control to probe under recent lows at 3786 and lower.
Levels : UP: 3877, 3891-99, 3897-99, 3907, 3911… DOWN: 3858-63, 3833, 3786.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

TUE P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 3841, targeting 3858.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3815, targeting 3802.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.