Proven Day Trading Signals from Viditrade - 01-14-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Rejecting Tuesday morning''s rally to attack 2052.00 (which was last week''s corrective bounce potential, and already rejected) was reversed sharply down to 2001.00. Probing under Monday''s 2015.25 low throughout the afternoon''s bias environment didn''t prevent the close from still overlapping 2015.25 -- neither recovering it nor rejecting it. A late bounce did peak at its 2022.00-2023.00 bounce potential to fulfill that buying pressure. And simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs were left outstanding at the low, requiring its eventual retest.

Overnight action''s new info...
Narrow ranging at 2015.25 soon gave way, and yesterday''s lows were probed down to 1996.25. All of the overnight drop has been retraced back up to 2019.50. Reacting down from there is testing 2004.00 against the background of JPM''s earnings miss.

If, then...
Retracing the overnight drop is interesting, since the drop neutralized the attraction to yesterday''s oversold RSIs, while also probing fresh lows. But not converting that into a favorable open trending even higher probably won''t avoid dipping again intraday. And gapping down to and/or through yesterday''s lows could ensure the intraday dip won''t recover.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2002.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal by also failing to recover the 2004.00 bias-down target at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2014.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2009.25 bias-down signal.

Buyers not going down without a fight.

The 1992.25 opening print was improved from the 1985.25 pre-open low. It further improved through 1994.00 resistance and then up to 2007.00. 

But the opening 15 minutes of volatility at 9:45 were under yesterday''s 2001.00 low, so the session-long decline setup did not invert.

And the bias timing window at 10:15 had returned back under the 2004.00 bias-down target, so the bias-down signal is renewed.

So far, that has produced only a dip back to 1996.25. 

Being a session-long decline, only one timing window should avoid printing a fresh session low. The exception is usually the noon hour. But if the open''s 1990.25 low isn''t probed before the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30, then all subsequent timing windows should trend down.

Alternatively, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back above its 2009.25 bias-down signal could still invert the session-long decline.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 201075
2004.00
...would target 2016.00
2009.25
Bias-down: under 1997.75
1991.00
...would target 1990.25
1983.50
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Surging Wednesday up to 1.8555 was in-line with the potential short-squeeze setup that was forming. It retraced down to 1.7775, suggesting that the market remains very bearish.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
As with Tuesday''s buyers that gained no traction for Tuesday''s efforts, Wednesday''s temporary probe of fresh highs overnight was rejected back down under Monday''s 1233.50 close.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down slightly Wednesday was enough to break back under 16.95. Closing under it was not going to be as easy, but its consequence continues to be an eventual test of the lows.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday''s retracement back up to 148-23 kept the door open for a brief probe above 150-00, which was done Wednesday by an early surge to 150-10. Closing back under 148-28 would signal the rally had ended.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday''s failure to confirm Monday''s breakout gave Wednesday room to firm. But 47.45 must be recovered to signal the trend has reversed back up.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday''s bounce to within 1 penny of the 2.98 buy signal extended higher overnight to gap up Wednesday at the prior rally''s 3.07 buy signal. And the prior buy signal''s test of its minimum 3.22 target was exceeded, presumably on the way to the maximum target at 3.29. Regardless, this upleg should be corrected significantly.

If Thursday''s open doesn''t gap down... then Wednesday afternoon''s buyers will be rewarded for having gained traction.

Pattern points... (Setups and technicals)
Wednesday afternoon''s buyers gained traction for their efforts. This was determined by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour''s high, combined with the 3:10-3:20 timing window trending to fresh session highs (as a proxy to not entering the final hour above the bias environment''s high). 

So, buyers should be rewarded with probing higher during at least the next timing window Thursday morning. That can be negated by gapping down under 1992.50''s last relative low.

The afternoon''s short-squeeze was signaled by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour''s high, after the same timing window probed fresh session lows. Since the session-long decline had yet to produce a counter-trend timing window, we were able to anticipate that would be the final hour. 

Knowing the last hour''s likely uptrend allowed us to anticipate the short-squeeze from 1988.25 instead of waiting for 1995.50.

The squeeze''s minimum objective was to probe fresh session highs above 2007.00, probably also above 2010.00. The lower objective was only attacked through the cash session close, but the higher objective is being tested before the Globex open.

Wednesday is the second consecutive session to probe a fresh low, but end the day overlapping the prior session''s low -- without also recovering the prior session''s close. That''s deep enough to trigger a bearish WedEX, but not deep enough for the signal to be more active than passive. Thursday''s oen could clarify that. Breaking back under the last session''s 2001.00 low would make the WedEX actively bearish. Gapping up above the 2023.75 last relative high would make the WedEX passively bearish.

WedEX reflects strong hands positioning into expiration. Wednesday''s close is the crescendo of that activity. It forecasts the bias Friday afternoon and Monday morning.

What''s Next... (Outlook and opportunities)
Reminder: I must be away from the screens during Thursday''s final hour. Unlike Tuesday, I will not update the site again before Friday''s open. This has been an unusual week, and that won''t be repeated -- I appreciate everyone''s latitude!

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2017.00
2010.25
...would target 2022.25
2015.50
Bias-down: under 2005.25
1998.50
...would target 1997.75
1991.00
Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.