Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Friday afternoon's buyers had gained no traction, so rallying Monday morning required gapping up sufficiently. The morning's 3276.00 bias-up target was already being probed by relentless overnight trending, threatening a session-long rally. Neither bullish setup formed, but gapping up above the bias-up signal ultimately absorbed a reaction down to 3268.00, reversing to probe Friday morning's highs up to 3284.50. Choppy sideways ranging chipped away at the noon hour's high until Monday's last 15 minutes surged to new highs at 3290.00. All "unfinished business" above was neutralized. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Last night was a wild roller coaster ride. Monday's late squeeze immediately popped-up at the Globex open. Consolidating briefly at 3292.00 before extending higher introduced complexity, which pre-qualified its ultimate high as a "new Globex trend extreme." That ultimate high soon printed at 3296.75, but only briefly before reacting down to 3287.50 well before midnight, and then collapsing down to 3275.25 through Europe's opens. So, what best complements a 20-point collapse? A 15-point surge, of course, which reached 3292.50 only 90 minutes later. And an 11-point reaction down fits in nicely, too, back down to 3281.25. Now yesterday's late surge is retraced almost entirely to attack 3288.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday's Market Wrap highlighted the timing of the late surge's breakout being too late to gain traction, and no unfinished business being in-play, opening a window correcting the trend. The overnight collapse not only underscores both, but might also have corrected them. New unfinished business was created first at the overnight high's new Globex trend extreme requiring intraday retest. The 3275.50 bias-down target didn't just magically reach out to halt the collapse -- that's where selling pressure is satisfied. Retesting it intraday by shallow backing-and-filling or a more substantial retracement remains possible until a new buy signal triggers. Meanwhile, China trade deal headlines have regained influence -- and I noticed Bitcoin surge $400 to fresh highs as Globex started peaking. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3284.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 3282.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3281.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 3288.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3292.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3293.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Backing-and-filling done? The last pre-open recovery attempt held the resistance of yesterday's 3288.50 cash session close. Suddenly breaking lower into the 3284.00 open extended deeper through the first half-hour to 3279.00. Multiple reactions along the way kept retracing the 3282.25 bias-down signal, which ultimately failed to trigger at 10:15. This is a no-bias environment. And having held a test of its bias-down signal, an offsetting test of its 3292.25 bias-up signal is now in-play. The bias-up signal is above yesterday's highs and in the orbit of the 3296.75 overnight "new Globex trend extreme" requiring intraday retest. First things, first. A fresh post-10:15 high above 3286.50 would be helpful confirmation of this morning's intent to rally, and that was done only by a couple of errant ticks. Upside confirmation wouldn't prevent reacting down, so much as help to ensure a reaction down is only temporary. Whatever its catalyst, reacting down would likely retest the overnight low.  

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3290.50 3290.75 ...would target 3297.75 3298.00 Bias-down: under 3282.50 3282.75 ...would target 3276.25 3276.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

But suddenly detouring for a China trade deal headline. Holding tests of this morning's 3282.25 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of its 3292.25 bias-up signal. Fresh post-10:15 highs were slow in coming, but added confidence to the upside objective being in-play. Relentlessly trending up met the objective during the noon hour. Probing above this afternoon's 3290.75 bias-up signal was maintained through 1:20 to trigger bias-up. Its 3298.00 bias-up target is already being attacked up to 3295.00. Last night's 3296.75 new Globex trend extreme would be met along the way.

Literally seconds prior to posting the above comments, a China tariff headline triggered a 12-1/2 point plunge to 3282.50, suddenly stopping at the bias-down signal's support. Its immediate reaction up to 3292.75 has already retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the knee-jerk reaction, allowing a sell signal under 3288.00-3289.00 to trigger. The plunge's low is being attacked to within 1 point.

Fresh lows are possible but not required. The bias-up signal was cleanly triggered and productive post-1:20 to help confirm its objective. Back above 3291.50 would signal the headline reaction is fully absorbed.

Monday's late breakout had initially extended higher to attack 3297.00 into the overnight Globex session. But it was soon retraced, and eventually reversed sharply on China trade deal concerns. The 21-point overnight drop was retraced to within 2 points at 3295.00. So close. A China tariff headline triggered a 17-1/2 point plunge, and the balance of the session ranged very choppily. The cash session close was down only 5 points, and futures narrowed its deficit to 1 tick. Unfinished business above was left outstanding at the overnight high's 3296.75 "new Globex trend extreme, and at the afternoon's 3298.00 bias-up target. Simultaneously oversold RSIs at the afternoon's 3277.25 low require a retest, too. A bearish Pivot Reversal formed the core elements of its setup: Gapping down in an uptrend, proving new trend highs intraday, and closing negative. That's not optimal without the negative close also being under the morning's low, which it was not. And the setup is much less effective anyway for developing entirely within the overnight range, which it did. Regardless, the formation suggests what we've been discussing, that the air seems pretty thin up here. Wednesday's schedule includes signing the China trade deal, and the House voting to refer its impeachment. A wild day for Trump, and probably also for the market if it isn't just paralyzed by anxiousness between competing sentiments. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3292.75 3293.00 ...would target 3298.75 3299.00 Bias-down: under 3280.75 3281.00 ...would target 3272.75 3273.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.