Pre-Market Open Predictions - 7:19 AM

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday's wild ride had begun Wednesday afternoon, when its test of the room for noise up to 2626.00 began reacting down. The close had slid through 2613.00-2616.00 on the way to an overnight test of ~2598.00 "lower prior highs." Thursday's 2606.00 open immediately resumed the overnight recovery, attacking 2626.00 upon exiting the noon hour. Despite triggering bias-up, the bias environment only ranged sideways until a China trade headline triggered a surge to 2645.50. The headline's denial triggered a 20-point reaction down that still recovered to close at 2635.00-2636.00. The minimum requirement from Tuesday's confirmed breakout for at least an eventual third higher close was fulfilled, while closing above 2626.00 put into play the rally's next higher objective at 2656.00. Overnight action's new info... Firming a little further to 2640.00 through Thursday's close reacted down to 2633.00 through the Globex open. The recovery soon resumed until attacking Thursday's 2645.50 high to within 3 ticks. Ranging narrowly sideways through midnight greeted Europe's opens back down at 2640.00. It wasn't very defensive, but it was defensive enough, and the earlier overnight high was recovered. Another dip to the range's lower-end was also recovered, and now breaking through yesterday's highs up to 2649.25. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Overbought RSIs at yesterday's high had required a retest which is now neutralized. The only higher objective in-play is 2656.00, which can be invalidated by opening back under 2626.00, but no such effort is apparent -- closing under 2606.00 today would be the last opportunity to invalidate yesterday's close above 2626.00. Meanwhile, this afternoon's bullish WedEX influence could help to extend a morning rally, or to retrace a morning pullback. Regardless, this being a three-day holiday weekend, any sponsored trending should take place this morning. And this being a Friday, the morning's bias often persists through the noon hour. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2651.00 would be likely to exceed the 2647.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2643.00 would be likely to trigger the 2640.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2637.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Stock Market Opening Signals - 11:12 AM

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Gap up to target is being exceeded. The overnight rally had begun probing yesterday's 2645.50 high to attack 2650.00, and then blipped-up to 2657.50 into the open. The actual open was also the rally's 2656.00 next higher objective. Its resistance reacted down to 2647.00, overlapping a couple of sell signals but never attracting reinforcements. Testing a 2651.75 buy signal at the 10:15 bias timing window got a benefit of the doubt for having absorbed sellers. Coincidentally, a favorable China trade headline several minutes later triggered a spike up to 2661.00. And now its retracement has recovered to fresh highs at 2668.50. Having met 2656.00, no upside requirement is in-play. The next higher notable resistance -- its room for noise -- is at 2668.50, now being tested. Closing above 2656.00 would put into play the rally's next higher objective at 2701.00. Closing back under 2656.00 wouldn't be predictive of anything, other than sponsorship not exploiting the opportunity to further entrench the rally.

Tonight's Day Trading Predictions - 11:59 AM

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FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2668.00 2668.50 ...would target 2676.75 2677.25 Bias-down: under 2659.25 2660.00 ...would target 2649.25 2650.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Mid-Day Market Thoughts - 1:36 PM

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The most bullish scenario may be to avoid a decline. The noon hour's high attacked this afternoon's 2677.25 bias-up target to within 3 ticks. This is still a bias-up environment, and its target is in-play. But it won't become "unfinished business" if left outstanding when the bias environment begins lapsing. Meanwhile, upside momentum is suspect. A 2672.25 pullback limit was violated upon entering the noon hour. The rally attempted to resume without first taking time for any accumulative behavior -- no backing-and-filling or complexity of any sort. The rally's attempt to resume hasn't extended. In fact, the violated pullback limit's 2668.00 low is being probed now. This afternoon's bullish WedEX influence doesn't prevent there being a temporary corrective dip. Presumably, this current break now testing 2666.00 will be recovered. Back above 2671.75 would start to signal momentum reversing up. Regardless, WedEX doesn't require resuming the rally, only retracing dips.

Market Summary - 4:32 PM

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Friday's gap up to the rally's next higher objective at 2656.00 took the entire bias timing window through 10:15 to absorb a dip to 2647.00. But the rally resumed and extended higher through the noon hour to 2677.25. That was 3 ticks short of the afternoon's bias-up target, and the bias environment only dipped down to 2662.00. The final hour firmed to 2670.50 through the cash session close, and to 2672.50 through the futures close, and then to 2677.75. The bullish WedEX's success is gauged by a comparison to the bias environment's high. Which the cash session close barely attacked and the futures close barely touched. The post-close fresh session high tilts the scale, so that we should at least be aware of Tuesday morning's potential for trending up aggressively from the open. Closing above 2656.00 has put into play the rally's next higher objective at 2701.00. Closing firmly above its room for noise at 2668.50 would have expected the rally to extend higher aggressively and without delay. Only overlapping it at Friday's close leaves the door open to rejecting the close above 2656.00 by immediately reversing back under it. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. REMINDER: NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE HOLIDAY.

Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 5:55 PM

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TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2676.75 2677.00 ...would target 2687.25 2687.50 Bias-down: under 2665.50 2666.00 ...would target 2657.00 2657.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.