Proven Day Trading Signals from Viditrade - 01-26-2015

Day Trading Pre-Open Plan - 8:00 AM

Edit

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Friday''s opening dip held tests of the 2049.25 bias-down signal. Its offsetting test of the 2061.50 bias-up signal became unfinished business above, while choppy narrow ranging defined most of the session. The afternoon bias environment''s retest of 2057.00 reversed down through Pivotal Uptrending support that had formed. Its minimum objective of 2046.25 was probed by 4 points through the futures close.

Overnight action''s new info...
Reaction to Greece''s elections triggered an 8-point gap down that extended to 18 points at 2025.50. But the 2030.00 area held tests as support, eventually recovering to attack Friday''s post-close 2042.25 low. Its first approach missed by 1 tick, but it has now been pierced.

If, then...
Friday''s selling, and now last night''s have likely been a combination of two or three factors: Fulfilling the 2059.00 target Thursday, defensive posturing ahead of Greece''s elections, and now a reaction to their result. A lot of buying pressure has been expended overnight, but still remains well under Friday''s cash session close. That margin must be reversed entirely before the open to prevent the intraday crowd from reacting to Greece''s elections, too. Otherwise, a bullish morning would depend on the open gapping down nearer the overnight lows. Often, greeting the new week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2039.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2040.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2048.25 would be somewhat likelier to trigger the 2050.50 bias-up.


Day Trading Opening Trends - 10:49 AM

Edit

So bullish, it was bearish...

The overnight recovery from 2025.50 had filled the gap back up to Friday''s 2045.75 cash session close. That''s a lot of buying pressure, but it wouldn''t gain traction for the effort without the opening 15 minutes of volatility also recovering something relevant -- like, a prior low like Friday''s 2046.50 low, if not also Friday''s 2049.25 "higher prior low."

Instead, the 2043.25 opening print soon extended back down to 2034.50. And that was soon recovered, but only back to 2043.25. Price action through 10:15 AND 10:30 narrowed its range around the 2040.75 bias-down signal.

In fact, ranging around the bias-down signal narrowed so much that it was still being overlapped instead of triggering. This is a noN-bias environment. It''s not a bias-down that would require testing the target. It''s not a no-bias that would put into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal. We don''t have the luxury this morning of a bias signal.

That said, just preventing a decline from gaining traction should default to being bullish for a recovery. The struggle through 10:15-10:30 is already resolving up 6-1/2 points to 2047.25.


Tonight's Day Trading Plan - 11:58 AM

Edit
MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2054.75
2048.75
...would target 2061.25
2055.25
Bias-down: under 2047.50
2041.50
...would target 2042.00
2036.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.


Daily Spot - 2:43 PM

Edit

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Sunday night''s knee-jerk reaction to Greece''s elections pierced last week''s low. The entire dip was recovered before regular trading hours. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight dip to 1275.60 filled another gap below. Its retest after Monday''s open didn''t extend down. Back above 1285.00 would signal the break was false, and that last week''s highs would be retested up to 1309.90. Otherwise, the next lower objective is 1268.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Lower lows overnight were recovered only temporarily, and extended down post-open to fill the gap back down to Tuesday''s 16.95 close. "Ineffectual pessimism" at last week''s highs has yet to be retested.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight rally to 150-29 was retraced entirely by Monday''s open to range narrowly around 149-23 well through the noon hour. Potential for a corrective bounce remains alive, despite being largely fulfilled Sunday night, while awaiting a new relative low close.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday''s follow-through under 46.25 support to 44.00 was reversed back to 46.25 Monday morning. It didn''t extend, but did try fighting off a second consecutive lower close that would confirm Friday''s break.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday''s opening drop filled the gap back to 2.84 that Friday''s gap up had created. It held its test, so closing back above 2.86 can now be credible for triggering an upleg, which would be confirmed above 2.96.


Bias Summary - 4:27 PM

Edit

If Monday''s recovery had gained traction... then a shallow opening dip Tuesday could still be likely to recover. But buyers didn''t gain traction, despite the last-minute surge to fresh session highs, so any dip must be contained to overnight action, and recovered to gap up Tuesday, or else lower lows become likely.

Pattern points... (Setups and technicals)
Monday morning''s recovery from Sunday night''s gap down was far more predictive than was the afternoon''s attempt(s) to extend it. Expending too much buying pressure without gaining traction had reset the recovery for morning failure. 

Indeed, the open did fall to 12 points under the pre-open high. But that was absorbed, and recovered entirely.

Lacking a sell signal or bias-down, the recovery was likely to extend. And it did, but not substantially. The balance of the session trended back up, making a series of higher highs and higher lows. Each leg overlapped the 2049.00 area, whose recovery through the open would have targeted 2061.50.

So, at least sellers did not gain traction. But neither did buyers, with the bias environment exit and final hour entry both contained within the noon hour''s range. A last-minute surge to 2054.00 may be in-line with the bigger picture, but its timing was not, so an overnight retracement to 2044.00 is possible in even the most bullish scenario.

What''s Next... (Outlook and opportunities)

Under 2041.00 would more likely extend down to test the oversold RSIs left outstanding at the morning''s 2034.50 low. Avoiding its retest Tuesday would all but require gapping up -- and that might require recovering from an overnight dip to 2044.00.


Tomorrow's Day Trading Plan - 4:33 PM

Edit
TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2059.00
2053.00
...would target 2064.00
2058.00
Bias-down: under 2050.00
2044.00
...would target 2044.50
2038.50
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.