VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: FRI A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Expert Pre-Open Trading Strategy - 7:16 AM
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Previously : MSFT's knee-jerk reaction up to 4047 was undone by its conference call's guidance, taking ES back down to 4010. Resolving down sharply at Europe's opens extended sharply to eventually attack the 3960-3963 target area. Reversing back up extended relentlessly through the open's 3995 high to Tue's 4031 close. The balance of the session ranged choppily up to 4036.
Overnight price points : Narrow ranging around 4036 persisted until popping-up to 4048 after midnight. Hovering there up to 4049 through Europe's opens has resolved down to fluctuate around 4036.
Catalysts : Thu's heavy econ calendar, Earnings ongoing, Fed-heads blackout.
Setups/Patterns : Correction.
Their influences : Trending up intraday from its gap down had suggested that Tue was an accumulative day, i.e. stronger hands exploited the discount, and the prior uptrend will resume. This can repeat indefinitely while price otherwise continues retracing the prior uptrend. And that likely defines Wed's temporary dip.
Premise : Reacting up from the 3960-3963 target area filled the gap back to Tue's 4031 close. Ranging sideways had threatened to retrace its last dip under 4022-4025, but recovered their test to close back at session highs. This forms a position of strength that makes the rally likely to persist Thursday morning.
Alternative : Not extending higher through Thu's open would become likelier for a deeper pullback to precede another recovery.
Levels : UP: 4052 4066 4090... DOWN: 4012 3988 3960.
Day Trading Opening Trends - 11:11 AM
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Previously : Narrow ranging around 4036 persisted until popping-up to 4048 after midnight. Hovering there up to 4049 through Europe's opens has resolved down to fluctuate around 4036.
New price points : Flat-to-higher fluctuation around the 4038 bias-up signal had probed the 4054 bias-up target before 8:30's econ reports, then higher to quickly probe the overnight high by 5 points up to 4068. This potentially bearish setup was triggered by reversing back under the 4059 open and extending to 4035. Bias-up still triggered, but a bounce to 4060 is being reversed to fresh lows at 4027.
Catalysts : Thu's heavy econ calendar, Earnings ongoing, Fed-heads blackout.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS... Correction.
Their influences : Trending up intraday from its gap down had suggested that Tue was an accumulative day, i.e. stronger hands exploited the discount, and the prior uptrend will resume. This can repeat indefinitely while price otherwise continues retracing the prior uptrend. And that likely defines Wed's temporary dip.
Triggers/Tactics : Gapping up was likely since Wed's last-minute dip had recovered through Wed's close. Not maintaining a probe above overnight highs through Thu's first 15 minutes made the gap up vulnerable to retrace, which it was -- first back to lower prior highs under 4036 and now probing Wed's 4033 close. All during a bias-up window, which suggests sellers are weak-handed, and absorbing them will be rewarded by at least retesting the 4068 post-open high.
Alternative : Exiting the bias window back under its 4038 bias-up signal would have potential down to 4022 while still being only another form of temporary corrective accumulation.
Levels : UP: 4052 4066 4090... DOWN: 4022 4012 3988.
Tonight's Day Trading Predictions - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4052, targeting 4066.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4031, targeting 4018.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Stock Market Mid-Day Trends - 2:01 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Flat-to-higher fluctuation around and above the 4038 bias-up signal had probed the 4054 bias-up target before 8:30's econ reports, then higher to quickly probe the overnight high by 5 points up to 4068. A bearish setup was triggered by reversing the fresh post-open high back under the 4059 open and extending to 4035. Bias-up still triggered, but a bounce to 4060 was reversed to fresh lows at 4027.
New price points : The bias-up window's weak-handed sellers were retraced to 4055 by noon. Flat-to-higher ranging up to 4063 is threatening the open's highs.
Catalysts : Earnings ongoing, Fri econs, Fed-heads blackout.
Setups/Patterns : NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP.
Their influences : The cleanly triggered no-bias was almost invalidated at 1:30. I gave a 4052 buy signal a benefit of the doubt anyway, which has extended higher to 4063 .
Triggers/Tactics : Bouncing into the afternoon is reinforcing whether the open formed a position of strength before allowing the bias-up window's detour to trap weak-handed sellers. Already probing the P.M. bias-up signal during its no-bias window is getting a benefit of the doubt, but can't dismiss potential for retracing the no-bias trending anyway before extending higher.
Alternative : Anxiousness ahead of Fri's econs, and no-bias trending being likely to retrace the P.M. 4052 bias-up signal, might cause the stretched rubber band to snap back down more substantially into and/or out of post-close earnings.
Levels : UP: 4052 4066 4090... DOWN: 4022 4012 3988.
Day Trading Summary - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Flat-to-higher fluctuation around and above the bias-up signal had probed the 4054 bias-up target before 8:30's econ reports, then higher to quickly probe the overnight high up to 4068. A bearish setup was triggered by reversing back under the 4059 open which attacked Wed's 4033 close Another bounce was reversed to fresh lows at 4027, during a bias-up window to define its sellers as weak-handed. Reversing up into and out of the noon hour extended to 4077 through the close.
Catalysts : Fri econs, Earnings ongoing, Fed-heads blackout.
Setups/Patterns : Friday Factors.
Their influences : The weekend's impending illiquidity can influence last-minute price action, such as the morning's bias tending to persist through the noon hour, and the PM Drift setup.
Premise : Each of Thu's uplegs probed Mon's 4051-4056 prior highs, which defines their interim dips as accumulation. This makes three consecutive accumulative sessions. A knee-jerk reaction down on Fri's econ reports would be likely to recover, too, if the rally isn't already obviously resuming.
Alternative : Exiting a timing window under Thu's 4027-4035 lows would suggest that Thu's highs had already fulfilled the two prior sessions' accumulation, and allow trending down into the afternoon.
Levels : UP: 4052 4066 4090... DOWN: 4044 4031 4012.
Tomorrow's Market Predictions - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4081, targeting 4095.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4058, targeting 4043.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.