VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: WED P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Pre-Market Open Predictions - 7:26 AM
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Previously : Ranging between the 4043-4038 bias-up and down signals broke lower out of Europe's open and extended sharply lower to 4008. Bouncing even more sharply up to 4048 was consolidated through Tue's open. Soon resolving up trended up relentlessly, extending through the close's short-squeeze to 4091.
Overnight price points : Tue's late 23-point short-squeeze reversed at the close, soon retracing 61.8% down to 4075. Ranging sideways through midnight broke lower after Europe's opens. Reacting up from 4071 is attacking the range's 4085 upper-end.
Catalysts : ADP, PMI, ISM, JOLTS, SNAP contraction, Earnings, FOMC afternoon.
Setups/Patterns : none.
Their influences : - .
Premise : Tue's late 23-point short-squeeze underscored the extreme sentiment. Overnight flat-to-lower ranging barely corrected it, and hardly offset it. But favorable reactions to this morning's econ reports were less discounted, and despite now bouncing, already having backed-and-filled to some degree earlier allows a morning rally to develop, perhaps even repeating yesterday's pre-FOMC optimism.
Alternative : Overnight backing-and-filling was still shallow compared to Tue's entire day-long rally, and vulnerable to extending deeper ahead of FOMC.
Levels : UP: 4111, 4121... DOWN: 4054, 4022, 3992.
Stock Market Opening Signals - 10:48 AM
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Previously : Tue's late 23-point short-squeeze reversed at the close, soon retracing 61.8% down to 4075. Ranging sideways through midnight broke lower after Europe's opens. Reacting up from 4071 attacked the range's 4085 upper-end.
New price points : Wed's open was greeted nearer the overnight range's lows, reacting up again post-open to attack Tue's 4090 close. Then back into the earlier range down to 4074.
Catalysts : ADP, PMI, ISM, JOLTS, Earnings, FOMC afternoon, META post-close/post-SNAP.
Setups/Patterns : NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN.
Their influences : Technically above the bias-down signal when the grace period lapsed, but still within the range overlapping it, so a little suspicious.
Triggers/Tactics : Spindling overnight around the 4078 bias-down signal persisted through the open, despite the pre-open fresh low and post-open fresh high. The morning is just as likely to continue fluctuating sideways.
Alternative : I'll give a 4085 buy signal a benefit of the doubt for producing an offsetting test of the 4095 bias-up signal. But the bias signal gets no benefit of the doubt, and its offsetting objective won't become unfinished business.
Levels : UP: 4111, 4121... DOWN: 4054, 4022, 3992.
Tonight's Day Trading Predictions - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4083, targeting 4095.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4066, targeting 4053.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Day Trading Help - Mid-Day - 1:45 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels
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Previously : Tue's late 23-point short-squeeze reversed at the close to retrace 61.8%, before ranging expanded to 4071-4085 throughout the night. A post-open surge attacked Tue's 4090 close, then back into the earlier range.
New price points : tl;dr: Sloppy, choppy, and wide-ranging... Although too late to have triggered bias-down, a dip quickly fell to the the 4065 bias-down target. Bouncing again to 4081 also resolved down sharply to 4063, before bouncing one more time into the earlier overnight range.
Catalysts : ADP, PMI, ISM, JOLTS, Earnings, FOMC afternoon, META post-close/post-SNAP.
Setups/Patterns : NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN.
Their influences : Hovering at this morning's lows and its bias-down target.
Triggers/Tactics : Spindling overnight around 4078 remained influential by reversing the open's surge back down through it, and attracting the post-open collapse back up to it. Now FOMC's policy statement may be greeted there. That could be the catalyst to finally launch a breakout beyond the 4065-4090 range, which should be substantial if up.
Alternative : The morning's two lower lows may have rid the market of enough optimism to enable resolving up, but greeting FOMC optimistically could still fit in another dip.
Levels : UP: 4111, 4121... DOWN: 4054, 4022, 3992.
Day Trading Market Wrap - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Ranging overnight around 4078 probed lower Wed morning to 4065. FOMC reacted down to 4053 and 4048 before surging through Powell's speech up to 4163. The close reacted down to 4126.
Catalysts : Earnings, ECB/BOE.
Setups/Patterns : Breakout.
Their influences : Wed afternoon's surge qualifies as a breakout from a multi-session range.
Premise : Overnight flat-to-lower ranging still needed Wed morning's extra dip, and then the afternoon's knee-jerk collapse, to discount the rate hike's bearish aspects, and to enable surging to fresh highs. Now the surge can be corrected -- whether to 4102, 4092, or to lower prior highs at 4080. Any lower would reopen the door down to 3987.
Alternative : Wed's close ended with the afternoon's uptrending of higher highs and higher lows intact. Whether or not first extending the pullback, fresh highs above 4168 could extend the rally into and out of the weekend, and into the 4200s.
Levels : UP: 4111, 4121, 4143... DOWN: 4054, 4022, 3992.
Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4150, targeting 4166.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4116, targeting 4102.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.