Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Trading down 31-32 points from its 3297.50 overnight high could have sufficed for correcting Thursday's recovery. But Friday's open collapsed throughout the morning bias window and through last Monday's prior lows down to 3232.00. The decline extended, absorbing 3 separate 15-16 point bounces on the way to its 3214.00 objective (down to 3212.75). The 85-point drop from overnight highs reacted up to 3227.00-3228.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night's open blipped-down 6 points to test the 3222.50 bias-down signal, and reacted up 14 points just as quickly to 3236.25 test. Its consolidation was centered around the 3232.75 bias-up signal. Breaking higher consolidated around the 3240.00 bias-up target. Breaking higher again to 3250.50 consolidated back down to 3240.00. Breaking lower through Europe's opens back down to 3232.75 is now trying to recover 3240.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) One of the "Friday Factors" is the potential for exacerbating an already strong morning trend. The weekend's impending illiquidity and an early drop can inspire selling pressures that wouldn't have developed otherwise. Usually that is weak-handed sponsorship, identified by the afternoon only ranging sideways or even retracing. But this Friday's afternoon probed lower, and the close was under the morning's lows. Reversing up is unlikely without first forming a bottom. And as we discussed during Saturday Review, the upper-end of the New Year's range has been chipped away enough to all but ensure probing under its lower-end. So, the burden of proof for this morning is still on buyers regardless of last night's recovery attempt. And if the recovery attempt is likely to fail, then already sliding into negative territory under 3227.00-3228.00 through the open would be credible for extending deeper this morning, targeting 3175.00-3280.00. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3243.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3240.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3237.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 3232.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3227.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Can you say, "understatement"? Friday's weak base had made almost any post-open weakness likely to trend down, probably to fresh lows targeting 3275.00-3281.00. The burden of proof was on buyers, and they would be credible back above the bias-up parameters. Which buyers did, aggressively. The pre-open reaction down came within 1 tick of a 3237.50 sell signal and immediately recovered back above the 3240.00 bias-up target. Soon a 3245.75 buy signal was probed on the way to retesting the 3250.50 overnight highs. At least, that was the minimum objective. A 9:45 econ report triggered a surge that extended into a 10:00 econ report that triggered a surge to attack 3265.00. A 5-stage correction pattern's 9-point reaction was recovered to fresh highs at 3267.25.

This seems like a massive paradigm shift from Friday. What could cause it? Kansas City Chiefs winning the Super Bowl? Perhaps. But there does happen to be an article in yesterday's Daily Mail headlined: "Thai medics claim coronavirus break-through: Patient is declared 'disease-free' in 48 hours using HIV and flu drugs". Suddenly, the catalyst yet to be fully discounted may be overly-discounted.

So, let's cross-reference the Thai medics article being the catalyst. This weekend's Saturday Review looked at 3 coronavirus vaccine stocks (INO, MRNA, NVAX) and each had a difficult open. Only MRNA is up and avoiding a gap down. We also looked at 3 Chinese stocks (BABA, BIDU, JD), and all are up sharply.

The 3245.75 buy signal has only now violated a pullback limit. There's still room down to 3257.50 before beginning to signal a deeper reversal down may be underway. Otherwise, triggering another buy signal would likely extend the recovery to 3279.00-3280.00.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3252.75 3251.00 ...would target 3258.75 3257.00 Bias-down: under 3244.75 3243.25 ...would target 3237.75 3236.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Retracing most of the post-open gain. Gapping up 11 points from 3228.00 extended 39 more points up to 3267.25 through the first hour. Too much, too soon? Apparently, having retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the rally from 3228.00, back down to 3242.50 through the bias window lapsing. Half of the reaction down was retraced by a bounce through the noon hour. The narrowing range is centered around the 3250.50 overnight high and this afternoon's 3251.00 bias-up signal. Nothing requires resolving either way today. This is an inside day, and this afternoon is no-bias. Back under 3246.50 would be credible for launching another downleg, at least targeting the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement at 3233.00. Back above 3255.50 could resume this morning's rally -- preferably after correcting for any no-bias trending above the bias-up signal before the bias window begins lapsing.

A funny and hopeful thing may have happened on the way to the global pandemic. Friday's reaction to its 3214.00 target had closed back at its earlier 3228.00 target. Sunday night's gap up and tests of 3250.50 was extended through Monday's first hour to test 3267.00. Correcting 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back to Friday's close reached 3242.50 by noon, and suddenly the 39-point rally and 25-point retracement became 13-14 point range through the close. Monday was an inside day, despite its wide double-digit intraday swings. Ranging relatively narrowly through the afternoon suggests that strong-handed buyers must be sought at lower levels, and might be found under Friday's lows. Extending down any deeper might not encounter support until testing the 3233.00 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement of Monday's opening gap. Any deeper could resume the decline next targeting 3175.00-3180.00. Otherwise, resuming the rally Tuesday morning would require gapping up. A similar gap-to-gap retracement back to Thursday's close would likely be met at 3279.50 before suggesting a bigger bottom might have formed. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3252.75 3251.00 ...would target 3258.75 3257.00 Bias-down: under 3241.75 3240.00 ...would target 3236.00 3234.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.