Proven Day Trading Signals from Viditrade - 02-09-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Friday''s favorable knee-jerk reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report was largely retraced before the open. The cash session rallied back to it, and through it, hovering into the noon hour. But the afternoon was essentially the opposite -- trending back down into negative territory. The upper-end of the 2041.00-2044.00 target area was attacked to within 2-3 ticks. Bouncing into the cash session''s close at 2050.50 extended nearly 6 points higher.

Overnight action''s new info...
Sunday night''s 2050.00 open immediately returned Friday''s post-close extension. Then the 2041.00 target was met. Its reaction up to 2047.00 (where I sent an overnight update) was reversed to a fresh low at 2039.50. Its 6-point bounce back up to Friday''s low was retraced entirely, but no lower -- at least, not yet. Meanwhile, the Euro''s non-reaction (small circle) to an unbending Greece and a doubtful Greenspan has also reversed (much, much bigger circle).

If, then...
The Euro''s reversal down seems relatively bigger than the ES. They''re timing isn''t in synch, but ES is bouncing again back up to Friday''s 2044.50 low, while the Euro is extending lower. Their relationship has changed a little from earlier, but the door remains open to ES reversing up this morning -- although now with a likelihood of one more fresh low actually testing this morning''s 2039.00 bias-down target.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2041.00 would be likely also to exit the bias timing window at 10:15 under the 2039.00 bias-down target, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2050.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2044.00 bias-down signal.

Sellers stilled, buyers stalled.

The extra dip I had described in the First Trade blog post was provided soon afterward, by a blip-down that barely touched the 2039.00 bias-down target as support.

Recovering both the bias-down target AND the bias-down signal could equate to a buy signal, since it would put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters.

But the bias-down target was tested only pre-open. At least the 2044.00 bias-down signal held its test through 10:15 to trigger "no-bias." That puts into play an offsetting test of the 2055.75 bias-up signal. Nevertheless, I would expect the 2062.25 bias-up target''s test, too.

First things, first. Extending through the open to 2051.50 has been retraced back down to 2044.00. It''s too late to trigger bias-down, and now it''s too late to invalidate the no-bias. The burden of proof remains on sellers.

Having said that, I would consider selling a fresh low in case a more substantial decline is developing anyway.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2060.00
2054.50
...would target 2067.75
2062.25
Bias-down: under 2048.75
2043.25
...would target 2043.50
2038.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Failing to hold the pullback limit Friday and close testing 1.1325 didn''t extend down until well after bouncing from Sunday night''s flat open. The 1.1363. high was  attacked after probing fresh lows down to 1.1275. An initial trending Tuesday would be credible for reversing the trend back up.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Monday only ranged sideways and only under the bounce limit. The decline''s target was met and held Friday, but no new signal has been generated.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday''s bounce tested "higher prior lows" around 17.10, but didn''t recover any resistance that might signal momentum reversing up.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming Monday didn''t extend higher, nor was it required to since Friday''s drop already fulfilled the minimum unfinished business below, and the breakout wasn''t confirmed.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI))
Monday''s gap up retested last week''s highs up to 54.00. The rally has likely resumed. Closing back under 51.75 would now reverse momentum back down.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday''s narrow ranging didn''t extend Friday''s probe of fresh lows, so its break is not confirmed. Back above 2.70 would signal the trend reversing up.

If the rally just needed an extra day to re-organize... then Monday''s fresh lows can be dismissed. Sunday night''s lower low was recovered back up to Friday''s cash session close. Monday afternoon''s lower low was recovered back into Sunday night''s range. All of which barely signals that the selling didn''t do new damage, and none of which yet signals momentum has reversed up.

Pattern points... (Setups and technicals)
So, round two Tuesday, for resuming last week''s rally? Reacting down from a retest of the two prior highs is predictable enough to have an impact. Reversing down into a new downtrend is too predictable to be credible.

That doesn''t prevent extending the reaction down overnight, or into Tuesday morning. Potential to 2032.00 remains outstanding since Monday''s late bounce didn''t recover a prior high like 2046.00.

Similarly, extending the bounce overnight would target 2049.00, whose recovery through Tuesday''s open would then target at least 2055.75. That''s just to satisfy the "unfinished business above" which was left outstanding from Monday morning''s bias environment. Multiple opportunities to invalidate it were rejected.

What''s Next... (Outlook and opportunities)
The likely resolution to resume the rally remains intact. That doesn''t preclude a sudden, steep and substantial drop -- but there isn''t yet a sell signal, and its next opportunity to trigger is not until Tuesday''s bias timing window.

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TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2054.50
2049.00
...would target 2061.00
2055.75
Bias-down: under 2043.25
2038.00
...would target 2038.25
2032.75
Signal status: BIAS-UP INVALIDATED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.