Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday's gap up to 2753.00 quickly extended back up to the 2757.00 "new Globex trend extreme" that had formed overnight. And through it to 2762.00. The bear market rally's last calculable target at 2751.00 was officially neutralized, along with its room for noise up to 2757.00, both overnight and intraday. The first reaction down attacked the 2753.00 open before bouncing back above 2757.00. The second reaction down touched Tuesday's 2748.00 high before bouncing back above 2757.00. Like the two bounces before it, price reacted back down. The close bounced off of 2751.00 to overlap the 2753.00 open. Overnight action's new info... Probes lower and lower eventually touched 2745.50 before reversing up. And up. Peaking in a 4-point surge up to 2763.00 at Europe's opens, its reaction down has bounced 4 points off of 2754.25. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Thursday is being greeted with no "unfinished business," and no upside momentum intact. Still overlapping the 2753.00 opening print at the close reflects inertia. That often occurs at a trend extreme, but holding 2751.00 and 2757.00 through the close doesn't qualify as their rejection. Gapping up today above yesterday's 2762.00 high could reinstate the upside, for which overnight action has created the predicate. Of course, forming a potential signal and then failing to trigger it can be as bearish as it would have been bullish. Reacting down today is probably the only way to greet Friday afternoon's bullish WedEX influence from lower levels. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2753.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2755.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2757.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Overnight rally hits its resistance, plunges through the open. Gapping up above yesterday's 2762.00 high could have reinstated the rally. Its upside momentum became inertia when yesterday's close overlapped its 2753.00 open. This setup often appears at extremes because it reflects the trend sponsorship's weakness. That vulnerability probably exacerbated the reaction to pre-open headlines that triggered a 20-point collapse to 2737.50. Extending to 2730.25 post-open held under Tuesday's 2738.75 and 2741.50 last relative lows through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to create an anchor below.

None of which prevented a bounce, which tested the 2746.50 bias-down signal's resistance up to 2748.25. Already too late for its recovery to invalidate the bias-down signal, and required to define the window's upper-end, a 13-point plunge attacking 2735.00.

The headline catalyst is artificial, better enabling the latest plunge's recovery. Recovering the 2746.50 bias-down signal into the noon hour could retest 2755.00. Otherwise, the decline remains vulnerable to extending down.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2748.25 2747.75 ...would target 2753.50 2753.00 Bias-down: under 2740.00 2739.75 ...would target 2732.00 2731.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Post-open paradigm shift hasn't shifted back. The opening action was impressive. As in, it made an impression. Two of them, both with the same setup -- opening back under Tuesday's last relative lows at 2838.75 and 2841.50. Maintaining their break through the opening 15 minutes of volatility formed an anchor, so that reacting up has come from a position of weakness. Meanwhile, the same opening action inverted the WedEX signal to passively bearish by proxy.

The position of weakness didn't prevent the morning's bounce 18 points from 2730.25 up to 2748.25. Its reaction down to 2735.50 was reversed up 20 points through the noon hour to 2755.25.

Flat-to-lower narrow ranging still managed to trigger the 2747.75 bias-up signal, while also holding a test of its 2753.00 bias-up target. It's still a bias-up environment, and back above 2755.75 would start to signal a bigger rally underway. Otherwise, topping should still close back under 2751.00, or at least overlapping it, but preferably back under Tuesday's last relative lows at 2838.75 and 2841.50.

A funny thing happened Thursday on the way to gapping up above Wednesday's 2762.00 high. An earlier overnight probe above it had reacted down, and was recovered up to 2760.00, when headlines triggered a plunge to 2736.50. Wednesday's close had overlapped its open, which often appears at trend extremes. Extending down post-open to 2730.25 created an anchor that suggests momentum has reversed down. None of which prevented rallying up to 2755.25 through the noon hour. But the anchor's position of weakness should doom the bounce to failure. The afternoon bias environment didn't extend the rally at all. A late break lower fell to 2744.50 at the cash session close and 2742.50 into the futures close. The anchor at Thursday's low has yet to be retested, and should be probed by a new downleg to compensate for the delay. Otherwise, having trended down into Thursday's close, gapping up above its 2754.50 bias environment high could form a session-long rally. The final hour's blip-up to a higher high would have to be dismissed -- which I'm willing to do, since it was triggered by a headline. Extending higher Friday morning would also raise suspicions about the WedEX signal's reversal to bearish. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2753.25 2753.00 ...would target 2761.25 2761.00 Bias-down: under 2741.25 2741.25 ...would target 2733.50 2733.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.