Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Sunday night's initial dip to 2031.00 had recovered by surging to a fresh high at 2044.25. A pre-open dip's recovery was stopped short at the 2041.50 bias-up signal' resistance. Its reaction down stopped several ticks short of fulfilling an offsetting test of the 2030.75 bias-down signal before recovering back up to the pre-open high at 2044.50. The higher close fulfilled the minimum requirement of Friday's new trend high close. "Unfinished business below" was left outstanding at the morning's 2030.75 bias-down signal. Overnight action's new info... Ranging back up to the highs at 2044.75 had been corrected once down to 2038.25. Or, was its reaction up to 2042.75 a correction of the drop to 2038.25? We may never know, or we won't know for awhile, as the tragedy of terrorist attacks in Belgium triggered a plunge to within 1 tick of what is this morning's 2028.50 bias-down target. Its reaction up to 2040.25 was retraced, and a couple more reactions have narrowed around what is this morning's 2035.75 bias-down signal. If, then... Three important points about yesterday's close. First, it left no "unfinished business above." All setups requiring an eventual higher close had been satisfied -- interestingly, without delay that could have refueled the rally. Second, the choppy, two-day sideways range at trend highs, reflected no shortage of opinion, and also reflected no sponsorship gaining traction for expressing it. Third is the attraction to "unfinished business below." The combination makes the market vulnerable to a drop, perhaps also to reversing down, but does not predict either. In fact, a durable top would tend to try rallying intraday out of the two-day range before failing. So, it will be very informative whether the reaction to last night's terrorist attacks is absorbed by recovering its overnight probe lower, as have the two prior night's dips. The bullish version of a drop would begin by gapping down to create new "unfinished business above" as an anchor requiring an eventual retest. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2039.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2035.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2032.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Post-open dip is reversed up. Regardless of having no durable effect on price action, there's usually a near-term reverence for events like Belgium's. So, firming post-open up to 2035.00 was retraced to the 2030.50 pre-open low. And that was it. At least, so far. The post-open dip's reaction has recovered back up to 2039.00. This area is critical, and would have produced a deep drop if tested immediately post-open. Testing it after dipping already could extend. That would also help to confirm this morning's no-bias signal. The 2035.75 bias-down signal was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Fresh post-open highs at 10:30 would help to confirm an offsetting test of the 2045.00 bias-up signal is in-play.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2050.00 2040.25 ...would target 2055.25  2045.75 Bias-down: under  2042.50  2033.00 ...would target 2028.50  2027.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bias-up target met already. Two bearish setups forming. Before I go any further with the downside risks alluded to above, I should offer a reminder. Trends, especially rallies, are survivors. They find ways to survive that continually surprise me. One general theme is quite common -- when appearing to be its most vulnerable to reversing, it finds the resolve to resume and extend. This may be one of those times. The trend is vulnerable because there is no "unfinished business above" attracting price higher. That, alone, is not a sell signal. It's not like support is being broken, which can attract sellers. Resistance is being probed, which can attract buyers. This instance, however, has other challenges: -- unfinished business above is being neutralized almost as quickly as it is created (most recently this afternoon's bias-up target that was met already at the 1:20 bias timing window), -- target's and resistance are holding through relevant timing windows (e.g. this afternoon's 2045.75 bias-up target), -- RSIs diverged negatively into the highs, -- the two-day ranging at trend highs now trying to probe resistance that has held through relevant timing windows, -- much buying pressure was expended to prevent this morning's gap down which then attracted weak-handed buyers, -- a potentially bearish setup is forming that targets at least 2042.75, potentially 2037.75, and in the latter case possibly also new session lows. Ranging around this afternoon's 2045.75 bias-up target blipped-up to 2047.50 and suddenly its reaction down is testing 2044.50. Trending down immediately may be difficult since 1-minute RSI just hit its support at oversold. That can work itself out by firming momentarily. That momentary probe is where rallies often revive themselves. Undeterred by my above list or by a list 10 times longer, defenders can appear from out of nowhere. A rally that can ignore so many bearish elements and extend higher anyway probably won't be too long from printing new highs. Either way, this area is unlikely to be visited for much longer. It's too dangerous.

False alarm, or false start? My prior blog post had described many of the reasons why the rally is vulnerable to reversing down. A 5-stage pattern had been plateauing up to 2047.50, awaiting a 5th stage targeting at least 2042.75 and potentially 2037.75. The final hour began by dropping quickly to attack 2037.75. The balance of the session ranged sideways. Was that just the beginning of a much deeper drop yet to come, its sponsorship inhibited by the fast-approaching close? Or was that all there is? It could be either -- no unfinished business is outstanding, and neither sponsorship gained traction. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.