Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Sunday night's 5{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit down to 2174.00 had bounced repeatedly overnight, before the Fed's pre-open QE announcement triggered a 172-point surge. Its reaction from 2214.00 up to 2386.00 within 1 hour was retraced entirely within 3 hours through Monday's open. And then deeper to Monday's 2179.75 low. The morning's bearish WedEX and PM Traction influences were fulfilled, allowing a sharp bounce up to 2290.75. Senate rhetoric prevented trending either way as the balance of the session drifted back toward session lows. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Restrained optimism has been remarkably restrained for a market that just now went limit up. Gapping up just a little to 2233.00 extended to only attack yesterday's highs at 2284.00. Its 44-point reaction down recovered to probe yesterday's highs up to 2318.00. Its 48-point reaction down recovered not much higher, but to higher and higher highs only attacking the 2333.50 limit up. Limit up was almost grudgingly pegged an hour ago. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Has the Fed's new backstop and Congress' old drama combined to scare away sellers, and to squeeze in a multi-session rally? The overnight 5{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit up at 2333.50 is poking its head above the market's downtrending Channel, which intersects at 2322.75-2335.00. The channel's resistance can be tested intraday, and rejected through the close, snapping back down aggressively. Until rejected, the channel's breakout gets a benefit of the doubt for extending, and for extending aggressively, and for extending with little if any delay. Limit up doesn't apply intraday and not rejecting its breakout early could extend up to 2388.00 and 2440.00. "Unfinished business" remains outstanding below, not including my 2169.00 target that was only attacked to within 5 points and only Sunday night. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) The current market is far removed from this morning's bias parameters.

Initial target already met. Overnight limit up at 2333.50 had started backing-off, sporadically, once down to 2301.00. But all were recovered to open at 2347.00 and then surge up to 2378.00. The strategy we discussed during the Market Tour for immediately actionable parameters played out quickly. That might be why its pullback was so deep down to 2339.25. Its consolidation broke higher by 10:15, but not yet through the open's range until 10:30 which was less optimal. Regardless of its timing, the breakout extended again to the initial target described during the Market Tour at 2388.00. Now a consolidation there is reacting down to 2366.00. Any lower could reach 2349.50 before even suggesting momentum reversing down. Having extended the open's Channel breakout, its new trending is essentially entrenched, and sellers are likely marginalized. Again, exceeding the open's range by 10:15 in this pattern would have been optimal. Be I'm giving further upside a benefit of the doubt, next targeting 2441.00, and potentially beginning a multi-session corrective rally.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2414.75 2401.50 ...would target 2446.50 2433.00 Bias-down: under 2379.00 2366.00 ...would target 2363.50 2350.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Putting a pause on it? The rally extended sharply higher well into the noon hour, extending up to 2427.25 and within 14 points of the 2441.00 objective. As expectations for the Channel breakout pattern continue playing out, including potential for a 10{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} up-day, another corrective dip also becomes possible. And this afternoon is taking advantage of that potential corrective dip. It's a little bit of a concern that we haven't had the usual negative headline from Senate negotiations / rhetoric. Perhaps that "other shoe" to drop is also the incentive for reversing price back down to 2376.00. If it is, then can the rally resume without a favorable headline? This afternoon's 2401.50 bias-up signal didn't trigger. It wouldn't be surprising to probe it anyway during this afternoon's no-bias environment, although that would require being retraced. Still, I do want to see impatient buying to help confirm that this market intends a bigger bounce. Back under the 2366.00 and 2350.50 bias-down parameters were start to suggest the breakout might be rejected.

Monday night's limit-up at 2333.50 was approached tentatively, not met until very near Tuesday's open. That restrained optimism is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Extending higher intraday was likely to be aggressive, and potentially substantial. That insight made an early entry compelling at 2350.50, which extended immediately up to 2378.00. The noon hour's 2427.25 high reacted down 81 points to the afternoon's low, and yet still recovered to new session high at 2440.75 through the close. Tuesday's likely 2388.00 objective was met easily, and its 2441.00 objective met to within 1 tick. The session extreme at +9.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} still verged on the 10{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} day that we also anticipated. Now the question is whether Tuesday has begun a multi-session corrective rally. Or, was it a one-off, whether extending higher only briefly Wednesday or already rejecting Tuesday's rally overnight. Bear market rallies are often substantial and brief. Confirming Tuesday's breakout with a second consecutive higher close Wednesday would require an eventual third higher close, or more. Neither resolution is ensured. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2472.25 2461.25 ...would target 2507.00 2496.00 Bias-down: under 2416.00 2405.00 ...would target 2382.25 2371.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.