Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday's gap up to 2919.25 from a (two-day) multi-session range. Intraday reinforcements weren't attracted to replace the relentless overnight trend's retiring sponsorship. Similar to previous gaps up and intraday rallies, Tuesday's fresh high quickly attracted overwhelming sellers that trended back down relentlessly into the last half-hour's 2904.50 low. Its reaction recovered to test Monday's 2910.00 close -- which was still being overlapped up to 2912.00 at the close. Both the 2919.25 open's gap up above all prior highs, and the 2921.25 pre-open "new Globex trend extreme," were left outstanding, still requiring a retest. Overnight action's new info... Several hours of sideways ranging between 2909.00-2913.00 suddenly spiked up to 2918.00. And then it gradually retraced back down to 2913.00, which held through midnight. Price action since then has steadily crept higher, and is now attacking 2918.00 to within 2 ticks. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) I'm reminded of the recent move, "A Quiet Place." The trick to rallying post-open is not to make any noise that will get its sponsorship noticed. Gapping up by too much would once again be likely to attract distribution that pushes price back down. But gapping up within yesterday's range -- and not already reversing back down under a relevant level through the opening 15 minutes of volatility -- would be likely to resume and extend the overnight rally through the morning. Likely objectives of yesterday's opening print and pre-open highs could be probed up to 2926.50-2928.00 before the monsters sellers recognize strength to sell into. Otherwise, retracing too much of the overnight gains could also alert sellers that the bounce has already failed, and selling into it could fuel at least a retest of Tuesday's low. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2916.75 would be likely to trigger the 2914.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2912.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Pre-open buyers get carried away, get heads chopped off. I described the bullish scenario in the pre-open Market Tour and First Trade post: Keep optimism in-check. Aggressive gaps up have been meeting a reliable pattern of significant intraday pushback. None so significant as today's.

Opening under yesterday's 2920.00 post-open high could have crept higher without enticing sellers. But the 2923.00 open was already above yesterday's post-open high, and also above its 2921.25 pre-open high. The first bar's dip back down to 2920.00 extended relentlessly back down to touch yesterday's 2904.50 low.

The 2906.50 bias-down signal was overlapped at 10:15 to invoke the grace period, and ultimately held to trigger no-bias. Had sellers been patient to avoid touching 2906.50 so early, offsetting tests of BOTH bias-down parameters could have been put into play for having rejected tests of both bias-up parameters. Impatient sellers instead extended the pattern unsustainably, and now a bounce is targeting a test of the 2914.50 bias-up signal. Being a late no-bias, the bounce is vulnerable to failure. The collapse was likely not only to touch yesterday's low but to probe it, if not also Monday's low. Back under 2907.25 would start to signal the decline is resuming. Meanwhile, extending the bounce above 2914.50 would target 2920.00 or higher.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2907.25 2911.00 ...would target 2915.00 2918.75 Bias-down: under 2900.00 2903.75 ...would target 2892.75 2896.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Still scraping session lows. Having held a test of the 2906.50 bias-down signal this morning, an offsetting test of its 2914.50 bias-up signal was put into play. With a lot of caveats. It was a late signal, the bias-up signal had been tested already, actually both bias-up parameters had been tested and rejected.

But the late no-bias was still good for a bounce up to 2911.00. And the 2906.50 bias-down signal held until the bias environment began lapsing. Then it was probed into the noon hour down to 2900.75. That's within 1 tick of Monday's low.

The afternoon bias environment signaled no-bias. Its 2903.75 bias-down signal is being tested now as support, and should define the window's lower-end like this morning's 2906.50 bias-down signal did for its window. Probing lower prematurely would required being retraced, but the decline is free to resume unimpeded by 2:30. Bouncing would still target 2914.50, although its test isn't required. And probably also the 2923.00 opening print, although it can remain unfilled without impeding a decline.

Was Wednesday a massive paradigm shift? That might seem to be the message being sent by the 19-point collapse from its 11-point gap up. But the the impending 3-day weekend's illiquidity could be as much of a catalyst, exacerbating the ongoing intraday distributive pattern. Regardless, collapsing from 2923.50 down to 2904.50 before the 10:15 bias timing window is bearish behavior, as much as extending down to 2898.50 through the afternoon's bias environment. But the burden of proof is on sellers, either to maintain the reversal into Thursday or to absorb an intraday bounce. Their chances are mixed. One reason for carrying the burden of proof is that outside days like Wednesday often expend more energy than they can sustain. That could be neutralized by a morning bounce before retaking control in the afternoon. Also, the expiration week WedEX signal was bearish -- passive bearish, having held tests of resistance. The setup still requires afternoon weakness to confirm, which could also fulfill the burden of proof. Already trending down overnight would find "lower prior highs" offering significant support at 2892.00-2894.00. Already bouncing would find only sporadic resistance at 2911.00 and 2914.50 before fresh highs become likely. Any early support or resistance test before the weekend can be very predictive for the afternoon pattern. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2905.00 2908.75 ...would target 2910.75 2914.50 Bias-down: under 2895.25 2899.00 ...would target 2890.25 2894.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.