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Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Probing above Wednesday's range up to 2806.00 had corrected before Thursday's open, posturing defensively ahead of Jobless Claims. Spiking back up still greeted the open at or above Wednesday's 2793.00 high. But its resistance held through the open, and Thursday's only path higher had failed. The balance of the session trended between Wednesday's extremes, back-and-forth and back-and-forth again. The afternoon's price action was likely to be sloppier, which it was, nevertheless finishing Thursday around the two-day range's upper-end at 2787.50-2789.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Hopeful treatment results from GILD and hopeful plans to reopen the country triggered a post-close 42-44 point surge to 2831.50. Globex gapped up another 33 points and soon extended to 2885.00, 39 points above Tuesday's recovery high. Flat-to-lower ranging through Europe's opens has its lower-end at 2850.00-2851.00. Now a bounce back into the range up to 2877.00 has begun reacting back down (see chart)... This still being a bear market rally, the overnight high does not qualify as a "new Globex trend extreme" which would otherwise require intraday retest. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) After rejecting Tuesday's test of the 2825.00-2827.00 bear market rally target on Wednesday, just retesting it Thursday would have put into play the next higher target at 2930.00-2934.00. Period. No recovery through the close or second confirming close being necessary. That was Thursday, being the first day following Wednesday's rejection. This is Friday, so the burden of proof is back on buyers. They certainly get a benefit of the doubt for retaking control, simply by gapping above Wed-Thu multi-session range. That makes uptrending this morning likelier (not required). Friday Factors make morning trending likely to persist at least through the noon hour (not required). Recovering "higher prior lows" at 2896.00-2897.00 through a timing window (not required to even be tested) could marginalize sellers for the day, if not already extend to the 2930.00-2934.00 target. An intraday dip to 2825.00-2827.00 -- albeit a landmark and not an inflection point -- is likelier to find support the first test, no so much in case of a retest. Since no further post-open rallying is required, rallying anyway would make the rally likely to persist through Monday morning. This being expiration, rejecting the overnight range should begin the process this morning, and probably already through the open. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters) The open is indicated well above this morning's bias parameters.

The path of most resistance is up. Gapping up last night however substantially had extended higher only briefly before launching into a sideways range. A range that eventually became flat-to-lower. The 2850.25 open only trended down to 2837.75 through the first 15 minutes of volatility. This setup tends to forecast the day's direction on expiration.

Probing the open's 2837.75 low by 10:15 and maintaining the probe through 10:30 confirms the bearish forecast.

But not necessarily in a straight line. The 2826.75 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement was just tested, while 1-minute RSI diverged positively, producing a bounce. But the bounce has resolved down to now test 2823.00. The next candidate for producing a corrective bounce would be 2818.00 if tested, being the 61.8 of the 61.8 gap-to-gap retracement. And being the 61.8 of the 61.8 gap-to-gap, breaking its support would be much more bearish. If accompanied by price acceleration, negative territory could be probed down to 2853.00. Keep in mind at all times that today is expiration. Price action can be hyper-sensitive to artificial catalysts like headlines. Even 100{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} certainty in resolving either way wouldn't prevent steep counter-trend detours.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2854.50 2845.00 ...would target 2865.50 2856.00 Bias-down: under 2836.75 2827.25 ...would target 2820.50 2811.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Are sellers done? This morning's 2821.00 low stopped 3 points short of the critical 2818.00 level whose break could target 2853.00 today. Reacting up since the bias environment exit has found resistance at this afternoon's 2845.00 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment, so 2845.00 should be the window's upper-end. That doesn't require visiting its 2827.25 bias-down signal, but that's how much room there is below for noise. Probing any higher could test the open's 2854.00 highs without relinquishing control to buyers. Meanwhile, drifting back down during the bias environment could start breaking lower as the window lapses. Friday Factors suggest that late-afternoon weakness could become aggressive and very productive. Otherwise, closing above 2825.00-2827.00 would prevent sellers from gaining traction. And closing above Tuesday's 2846.00 high would suggest that the bear market rally is heading to 2930.00-2934.00.

Surging after Thursday's close and gapping up sharply at the 2863.00 Globex open extended higher immediately, and then immediately peaked at 2885.00. Overnight action ranged sideways and then flat-to-lower on the way to Friday's 2850.25 open. The morning bias environment extended down to 2821.00. A bounce to 2845.00 was retraced to 2824.00 at the afternoon bias environment exit. The last half-hour recovered the open's 2854.00 open, which made an attack on 2870.00 likely. The attack on 2870.00 became a probe up to 2871.00, producing a new recovery high close. Tuesday's 2846.00 high of testing the bear market rally's 2825.00-2827.00 likely target was exceeded, now likely targeting 2930.00-2934.00. My criticism of Tuesday's test of the 2825.00-2827.00 rally target is different from Friday, but similar in principle. Where Tuesday had spent the session overlapping the target, Friday developed almost exclusively above it. But Tuesday's 2846.00 high was the new standard, and it wasn't recovered until Friday's last half-hour. And that was with thanks to expiration's influence. Opening under 2846.00 Monday would suggest a bearish morning underway. Otherwise, a bullish WedEX suggests that Monday will trend up, even if the open were to gap down. And holding above 2846.00 through the morning would be likely to soon test 2930.00-2934.00, if not already well on its way. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2989.25 2880.00 ...would target 2912.25 2903.00 Bias-down: under 2862.75 2853.50 ...would target 2851.25 2842.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.