Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... The recovery from an overnight dip was already retracing into Tuesday's 2941.50 open. The retracement extended to test overnight lows down to 2935.00, collapsing from there to 2926.00. Simultaneously oversold RSIs helped to launch a reaction that entered the noon hour back above the earlier 2935.00 low. Still firming into the afternoon bias environment didn't firm enough in time to trigger the 2941.50 bias-up signal. That didn't prevent no-bias trending from probing above it anyway, or from hovering at the afternoon's 2947.00 bias-up target. Anxiousness ahead of AAPL's post-close earnings probably paralyzed price action there. A blip-up at the close touched 2950.50. Overnight action's new info... Surging to 2956.50 in reaction to AAPL's earnings reaction (AMD did well, too) neutralized Monday afternoon's unfinished business at 2954.25. Consolidating into early Globex was recovered to extend the rally to 2961.25 before midnight. Complexity of the upleg qualifies its high as a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring intraday retest, often the same day. Price action since then drifted lower several points, eventually steepening to test this morning's 2955.75 bias-up target by 3 ticks, and the upper-end of yesterday's post-close surge. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) All price action above Friday's 2951.50 high has developed after yesterday's close. It's impressive enough that the next session's 2926.00 low was recovered intraday at least to within proximity of the high. But already trending above it and by so much suggests pessimism is in hiding, but that a few pessimists have been found and shot. This can prove bearish from a contrarian perspective, although not too pleasant for pessimists in the interim, in more ways than one. But it is exclusively an overnight rally, essentially, which can become an intraday decline if the open doesn't quickly attract intraday reinforcements. That's without even considering the weighty afternoon events, or any negative pre-open earnings surprises. Trending beyond an established range is already difficult ahead of an afternoon's FOMC events, or difficult to maintain. Extending last night's rally this morning anyway would next target 2969.00, and be difficult to defend. Backing-and-filling ahead of the report could become a much deeper reversal if the 2950.50 bias-up signal doesn't trigger. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2957.25 would be likely to exceed the 2955.75 bias-up signal at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2953.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2950.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2947.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Pullback through the open still recovers bias-up signal, then doesn't. Yesterday's last-minute surge through 2947.00 into the post-close fresh high had extended to new highs at 2961.25 before midnight. The trend since then has been down. Down into Europe's opens, down into the open and then down through the first half-hour to touch 2947.00. Still, the 2950.50 bias-up signal was recovered in time to trigger cleanly. Its subsequent test as support did NOT hold at 10:30, invalidating the bias-up. The 2955.75 bias-up target is NOT in-play, although the overnight high's "new Globex trend extreme" might also be an attraction. The invalidation isn't surprising since upside objectives are fighting the headwinds of this afternoon's impending FOMC events. Triggering bias-up first, and THEN being invalidated does reflect excessive optimism. Regardless, back above 2953.25 would be helpful to the upside. Otherwise, a deeper pullback to 2945.00 is likely.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2956.00 2957.75 ...would target 2962.25 2964.00 Bias-down: under 2948.50 2950.50 ...would target 2942.50 2944.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Greeting FOMC from a pullback to support. The post-open dip to 2947.00 was recovered before noon back up to the morning's 2955.75 bias-up target. Its reaction trended down to fresh lows through the noon hour and tested this afternoon's 2944.50 bias-down target by 1 point. Its reaction bounced up to test this afternoon's 2950.50 bias-down signal by 3 ticks, which held its test. This is a bias-down environment, and its bias-down target was already met. Its retest is in-play, but won't become "unfinished business" if left outstanding. Retesting the bias-down target is less likely with the FOMC events just minutes away and beginning during the bias environment. Greeting FOMC from beyond either end of the 2946.25-2949.50 range would be likely to react in that direction. In between is an unknown "no man's land". Volatility tends to be excessive during FOMC policy statements and Fed Chair Q&As. Be sure to consider that greater degree of unpredictability in position-sizing and execution decisions.

Wednesday was greeted by multiple instances of excessive optimism that I detailed in the pre-open Market Tour. None of which would necessarily prevent retesting the 2961.25 overnight high's "New Globex trend extreme." But they did. The high was only attacked again intraday to within 5 points. Twice. Monday's "unfinished business" above at 2954.25 had been met overnight, but it was also Wednesday's open. A couple of big downlegs eventually touched 2943.50 at the noon hour's low -- stopping optimistically short of Tuesday's unfinished business below at 2941.50. Down 20 points from the overnight high, and still showing signs of optimism. Greeting the FOMC policy statement from just above 2949.50 was likely to extend in that direction, and returned to the morning's 2956.00 high. Despite probably being only obligatory resistance, it was still resistance. And its test coincided with the Fed Chair's Q&A, which evoked quite a different sentiment -- reacting down 17 points to 2939.00. A compelling hold-short would have been considered on a close under 2935.00 with the likelihood for gapping down to 2919.50. But the close had dropped already to 2924.50, reversing the odds. Post-close action has already extended down to 2916.00. A lot can happen overnight. Recovering 2930.00-2934.00 would be big, but a retest of Tuesday night's highs requires recovering 2949.75-2950.50. If this were Friday, then extending down sharply intraday would be very likely, but it's at least still possible. There's room down to 2910.00-2911.00 without yet falling over the edge, but it's a very difficult level to recover from. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2928.00 2929.75 ...would target 2934.75 2936.50 Bias-down: under 2916.50 2918.50 ...would target 2909.25 2911.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP INVALIDATED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.