Proven Day Trading Signals from Viditrade - 05-14-2015

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(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Wednesday''s session was contained by Tuesday''s "equilibrium" signal. A pre-open surge to 2105.75 was retraced to 2096.00. A post-open surge retested the pre-open surge, and was retraced even faster to 2093.00. Afternoon choppiness continually returned down to 2093.00, but a late probe of it reacted back up into the close.

Overnight action''s new info...
Wednesday''s late reaction up initially extended to 2098.50. Sliding touched 2092.00 soon after Europe''s opens, and reacted back up abruptly. Yesterday''s 2105.75 pre-open high was touched to within 1 tick, and price has hovered under there since then.

If, then...
Here we go again? There''s a difference between yesterday''s rally effort, and today''s. The promise of yesterday''s trending efforts were vulnerable to their equilibrium origin, which prevented them from extending. Yesterday''s trending attempts were the product of a signal that both launched them and reversed them. Today''s trending is the signal, launching from yesterday afternoon''s setup that requires trending to begin by gapping up or surging immediately. This trending attempt''s promise is vulnerable, too, and not extending higher post-open could retrace back to yesterday''s lows with little hesitation.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2098.50 would make the 2099.50 bias-up signal unlikely to trigger at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2101.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up. And exiting the open above 2109.00 would be likely also to recover the 2105.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Opening surge''s correction is recovered.

2109.00 didn''t require being touched after the open. But if buyers were going to try that hard, then not attracting reinforcements by 9:45 would suggest those buyers were weak-handed. That''s why recovering it through 9:45 would have made the 2105.00 bias-up target likely to be exceeded through 10:15, renewing the bias-up signal.

2109.00 was touched, and it was not exceeded through 9:45. But I discounted that. Its 2nd-minute timing thin participation lessened the significance of rejecting it. 

That didn''t lessen the consequence. Its reaction fell almost 6 points to 2103.50. That was sufficient to reward the few early sellers who absorbed the open''s momentary surge.

The 2105.00 bias-up target did hold its test as support, and was recovered through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Renewed bias-up targets are 2110.00 (met), 2114.75, and 2120.75. Upside momentum remains intact so long as pullbacks hold 2106.00-2106.75.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2115.50
2111.50
...would target 2121.75
2117.75
Bias-down: under 2108.25
2104.25
...would target 2102.50
2098.50
Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Post-open uptrend remains intact and productive.

As suspected before the open, today''s gap up was very different from yesterday''s. Its intent was not to fulfill a signal before likely reversing down, but to signal that a reversal down was not likely. And the reward at this stage of the pattern -- with each prior sell-off never indicating a trend reversal -- is to extend to new highs.

This morning''s rally to 2111.00 was consolidated back down to 2108.00 support into the noon hour. The rally resumed, and has extended to fresh highs into the bias environment. The prior relative high is being probed up to 2116.50, within 5 ticks of this afternoon''s bias-up target. 

Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are overbought, which does introduce a vulnerability to reacting down, but also indicates that a reaction down would be only temporary. A reaction down could test 2110.75 without threatening to reverse the trend down, so long as the bias environment isn''t exited at 2:30 under its 2111.50 bias-up signal.

Just exiting the bias environment back under 2114.75 would suggest today''s rally has peaked, but not necessarily that it is being reversed. The 2119.75 prior high should be probed by 1 point before the next correction, probably shallow.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday through 1.1400 fulfilled the setup triggered by Wednesday''s opening surge.Reversing down extended into negative territory. Thursday''s gap up above all prior highs at 1.1413 does need to be retested before a credible downleg could begin.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming prices into Thursday''s session were maintained to confirm Wednesday''s breakout, targeting 1232.00, and now requiring an eventual third higher close.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday''s rally extended higher Thursday to 17.60, confirming the breakout to now require at least an eventual third higher close, and still targeting a probe above 18.00.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday''s narrowly ranging session was optimal for a pattern that still needed to absorb the recent shock-to-the system -- now including Wednesday''s intraday slide. The narrow range did hover optimistically above Tuesday''s prior lows, suggesting it will be probed. Avoiding an actual touch of 151-16, or else probing it down to 150-25, would still allow a bottom to form.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday''s deeper dip following Wednesday''s failure to confirm Tuesday''s rally does threaten to reverse down. Rallying again from 59.30 would be credible. Otherwise, closing back under 58.65 would start to signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday''s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength. Its reaction up to fresh highs was maintained to fulfill the confirmed breakout''s requirement for at least a third higher close. The surge consolidated narrowly around 3.00 and formed an ascending triangle likely to break higher.

FRI signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2124.75
2120.75
...would target 2129.75
2126.00
Bias-down: under 2112.75
2109.00
...would target 2107.00
2103.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.