Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday night's Globex had immediately probed a fresh low just under 2800.00. And then it immediately reversed back up to open Tuesday back above much of Monday's intraday drop, extending well above it to attack 2854.00 at the early-afternoon high. That was short of fulfilling the afternoon's 2850.50 late bias-up signal targeting 2857.50. The entire afternoon had formed a Head & Shoulders top that broke lower to 2834.00. Closing at or under 2837.50 didn't qualify as closing above it, which would have signaled a bigger recovery attempt underway. That was similar to the open's last-minute dip back under 2830.00-2831.00 which would have been bullish to recovery. Overnight action's new info... The first target of Tuesday afternoon's Head & Shoulders was fulfilled by the 2834.00 late low. Bouncing into the Globex open was retraced down to 2833.50. A bigger bounce into Europe's opens reached back into the pattern's shoulder up to 2848.50, where another retracement began that reached the 2833.50 prior low -- forming another Head & Shoulders pattern. Now its initial 2827.75 target has been met. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) So many signals of weakness yesterday during its rally. (The open holding resistance that it could have recovered. The noise above afternoon buy signals. The late bias-up, and missing peaking below its target. The Head & Shoulders pattern's distribution.) All of which would reflect a lot of selling potential, if not for the Head & Shoulders already having reversed down to fulfill its minimum target. And now its reaction up has reversed to meet the pattern's next lower target. Each target fulfills that much more selling pressure, so extending down intraday will require reinforcements to arrive. The burden of proof is still on buyers, for which their reward would initially target 2857.50, then 2862.00, if not also the gap back up to Friday's 2884.00 close. Otherwise, resuming the decline through the open would likely mean the decline has resumed for the day. Opening Wednesday under 2830.00-2831.00 or above 2846.00 should trend intraday in that direction. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2828.00 would be likely to trigger the 2831.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2833.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2838.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2844.00 bias-up signal.

EU auto tariffs delayed, market surges. The overnight drop had extended precipitously to probe into 2813.00-2819.00 pre-open down to 2815.00. Opening slightly higher never looked back to trigger a sell signal that would have been credible regardless of how quickly it was tested. Gradually and tenuously bouncing to 2827.25 was being retraced when the impending EU auto tariffs were delayed.

The effect was nearly immediate. A blip-down touched 2819.00 and immediately reacted up to 2840.00. Ultimately late no-bias triggered, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2844.00 bias-up signal. That was quickly met, and now it's being exceeded up to 2848.50.

An offsetting test of the 2852.50 bias-up target is possible for also having rejected a test of the 2824.50 bias-down target. But only potentially, as the bias signaled late. A timely no-bias would have required it.

 Back under 2841.50 and 2838.00 would start to signal the bounce is already done. Its credibility is undermined by the post-open rally's impatient start, and by its external catalyst. But its reversal requires sponsorship, and that window won't remain open indefinitely while becoming increasing vulnerable to a bigger rally.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2856.25 2857.50 ...would target 2861.75 2863.00 Bias-down: under 2847.25 2848.75 ...would target 2840.00 2841.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Market Wrap will be a half-hour early. This morning's rally from 2815.00 extended sharply. Tests of both bias-down parameters had been rejected to trigger no-bias. But it was a late no-bias, so an offsetting test of the 2852.50 bias-up target wasn't required. It was met anyway, and largely defined the bias environment exit. Now the noon hour's fresh highs have held a test of this afternoon's 2857.50 bias-up signal to trigger no-bias. Its reaction down has been testing and retesting a 2850.50 sell signal, and avoiding the 2848.75 bias-down signal. Breaking the 2848.75 bias-down signal's support through 1:30 would have invalidated no-bias. Avoiding that opportunity creates more potential for further upside. So, back above 2854.50 would start to signal another upleg, at least likely to test the 2857.50 bias-up signal during the no-bias environment.

The start of Wednesday's steep intraday rally wasn't optimal. Sliding aggressively into a pre-open low wasn't retested post-open. And sluggish post-open action suggested an attraction, which wasn't fulfilled. But its retest wasn't required, so it's not a deal killer, and its 2815.00-2816.00 origin doesn't require being retraced.

The catalyst for Wednesday's steep intraday rally wasn't optimal, either. There was a development in the China trade deal. Being more than just a headline or rhetoric, its 2821.00 origin doesn't require being retraced, either.

But Wednesday's steep intraday rally left no "unfinished business" above, having avoided a bias-up. And the afternoon's timing windows did not indicate buyers gained any traction for their efforts.

Exiting the afternoon bias environment had every opportunity to almost literally explode higher, but only retraced within the afternoon's narrow range. Perhaps there will be a delayed effect Thursday morning, quickly exceeding 2862.00 to maintain the recovery's momentum, and next targeting the gap back up to Friday's 2884.00 close. Otherwise, already reversing down is possible, and already reversing down would likely extend through the morning. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2856.25 2857.50 ...would target 2861.75 2863.00 Bias-down: under 2847.25 2848.75 ...would target 2840.00 2841.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.