Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday's late MRNA headline was retraced entirely into Wednesday's open. The open confirmed Relentless Overnight Trending had attracted reinforcements, extending the rally through the morning. Its 2977.00 target was met to within 5 ticks and Monday's 2976.25 new Globex trend extreme to within 2 ticks. Reacting down on the Senate's anti-China stock vote bottomed at the FOMC Minutes release's test of 2955.00. Its reaction up to 2971.00 ranged sideways through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Firming into the Globex open touched 2973.50. Its reaction reversed back well under Wednesday's lows to test 2946.00 before midnight. Firming up to 2957.50 reacted down, too, and lower lows since Europe's opens have touched 2941.50. That's half the distance back to Tuesday night's Globex low. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Wednesday's new recovery high close was already dubious for being a breakout from the prior two sessions' range. Afternoon buyers didn't gain traction for their efforts, which is also suspicious for a gapped up session. Now trending down relentlessly overnight keeps the door open to another downleg from what is otherwise the most impressive effort yet to exceed 2930.00-2934.00 resistance. Selling pressure through yesterday's mid-day pullback had held the opening range as support, but failed to exploit its potential for rallying into the close. Perhaps overnight slide is just searching for stronger-handed buyers below, and the rally patiently reserved its buying pressure for Thursday morning. If so, then the Relentless Overnight Trending setup will produce counter-trend uptrending through the open that launches at least a morning rally, however productive. Attracting intraday reinforcements instead would likely extend down to test 2930.00-2934.00, where there is still meaningful support. Exiting the open back above yesterday afternoon's ~2956.00 lows could be bullish immediately. Be careful with shorts in case of early strength, especially if early strength isn't being rejected through the bias environment exit: Regardless of sliding overnight, the seasonality of the 3-day holiday weekend makes reversing the prevailing trend difficult. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 2943.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2948.00 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2950.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2957.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2961.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Now probing a bias signal. My labeling convention for the bias state doesn't reference either bias signal is neither bias signal was touched between 9:30-10:15. The no-bias signal only requires that either signal define that end of the window if tested during it. But neither signal requires being touched. Which is interesting this morning because overnight action was so clearly influenced by the bias-down parameters. And the 2957.50 bias-down signal was recovered so near the open. But an offsetting test of the 2974.00 bias-up signal is not required. Now testing the bias-down signal is being done for two reasons. Two post-open bounces first stopped short of triggering bias-up by 10:15, and then stopped short of invalidating no-bias by 10:30. That's a lot of buying pressure to expend without gaining traction for the effort. The bigger question is how deeply the 2957.50 bias-down signal will be probed while being no-bias trending that requires being retraced. Its minimum objective is being tested now down to attack 2949.00. The 2948.00 bias-down target could be probed. But no-bias trending requires retracing the 2957.50 bias-down signal eventually.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2962.75 2957.50 ...would target 2975.75 2970.50 Bias-down: under 2940.25 2935.00 ...would target 2926.00 2920.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Awaiting Fed speakers. This afternoon's Fed speakers may be inhibiting volatility. A relatively narrow 11-point range between 2943.00-2954.00 has persisted since noon. Volatility wasn't inhibited this morning, despite delaying a post-open test of its 2957.50 bias-down signal until AFTER triggering no-bias. It was too late for putting into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal to help absorb a reaction down. In fact, the 2974.00 bias-up signal had been tested to within 6 ticks. So, testing the 2957.50 bias-down signal and its room for noise 2-3 points lower collapsed down to 2933.00 -- holding the 2930.00-2934.00 support. That was no-bias trending, requiring its retracement back up to the 2957.50 bias-down signal. Except, that requirement was mooted by exiting the bias window under its 2948.00 bias-down target. That doesn't preclude testing 2957.50 anyway, or extending back up into this morning's highs. There's even greater vulnerability to another, deeper downleg. But trending in either direction should get underway when the bias window begins lapsing or else risk being stuck in this range into the weekend.

The consequence to Wednesday's late fluctuation around Monday's prior high was a Globex reversal from 2973.50 down to 2941.50. Firming into Thursday's open quickly peaked at 2973.00 and duplicated the Globex reaction. A more substantial collapse down to 2933.00 was no-bias trending, but exiting the bias environment under its bias-down target negated the bias signal's required retracement. The low's oversold RSIs nevertheless require a retest. Sellers didn't exploit the opportunity, as the balance of the session beginning at noon ranged relatively narrowly sideways between 2943.00-2954.00. Last-minute action did give way to attack 2936.00. Friday before a three-day holiday weekend is typically thinly traded and vulnerable to sideways ranging. That's still the likelier scenario, but restricted travel might add an unusual twist. Already having held a test of 2930.00-2934.00 support on Thursday, its retest Friday would be likelier to break lower. Likely objectives are in the 2885.00-2901.00 area. Having trended down into Thursday's close, gapping up Friday above Thursday afternoon's 2954.50 high could form a session-long rally. Trending up from any shallower opening strength should be limited to probing above 2974.00. Friday Factors will still be as relevant as any Friday, so expect the morning's bias signal to persist through the noon hour, and for the afternoon being vulnerable to trending to its nearest attraction. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2955.75 2950.50 ...would target 2971.25 2966.00 Bias-down: under 2945.25 2940.00 ...would target 2935.50 2927.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.