Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday's open was greeted on the way down from a new Globex trend extreme that had formed overnight at 3075.50. The Opening Thrust's test of 3058.00 lower prior highs down to 3052.00 recovered through the first hour to be bullish. A mid-morning collapse from 3069.50 tested 3048.00, just 1 point short of invalidating the morning's bias-up, which was bullish. Another recovery also reacted down, but its recovery surged through the close up to 3078.25. The session's own unfinished business above was neutralized, along with last Tuesday's confirmed breakout. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The early Globex consolidation soon surged to 3092.50, similar to Tuesday's late surge albeit shallower. Its reaction held above prior highs, and resolved up to slightly higher high attacking 3095.00. Another reaction through Europe's opens has recovered to test 3095.00, with complexity that forms a new Globex trend extreme. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Extending higher this morning was likely to begin by gapping up. Neutralizing all unfinished business above makes it unsafe for a rally not to extend higher without delay. And yesterday's late surge came too late to form PM Traction. Rallying overnight indicates a gap up. Meanwhile, the new Globex trend extreme creates a new attraction above, just in time to replace others that were neutralized by yesterday's late surge. The safety net of higher attractions in-play doesn't prevent reversing down, it just makes the reversal's recovery likely. Gapping up above all prior highs will create another upside attraction in case post-open action were to reverse down. That's all the bullish case. The bearish case would likely be temporary if triggered before today's close, and if any unfinished business were still outstanding. Unfinished business below at 3030.50 and even 2965.50 are still part of the current pattern, and could be targeted if the sluggish rally doesn't attract post-open reinforcements today. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3090.75 would be likely to trigger the 3086.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3081.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Morning uptrend indicated. ADP data beat expectations, suggesting that if employment can remain high or rebound quickly against COVID quarantines, just imagine the job growth upcoming from these riots! This means nothing in my analysis (market analysis, not with my shrink), but its reaction does help to interpret price action into Friday's Employment Situation report. More on that later. Meanwhile, greeting the open with  Relentless Overnight Trending needed the opening action to signal whether the setup would be bullish or bearish this morning. The choppy open probed overnight highs and then back under the 3098.75 opening print. Ultimately the open held as support at 9:45 to at least form a position of strength. Any reversal down would likely be temporary. More behaviors were bullish, but one behavior was yet to be heard from. Relentless Overnight Trending's position of strength doesn't speak to momentum. That requires fresh highs at 10:00 and or 10:30. That has been fulfilled somewhat, and price has since extended higher to 3108.00. Holding 3105.00 support would likely extend to at least 3111.00. Trending up through the morning only neutralizes unfinished business. Closing higher today would at least be a bullish near-term reinforcement of last week's confirmed breakout, that yesterday's minimum fulfillment has more to come. Closing lower today could signal a deeper pullback first.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3124.50 3121.50 ...would target 3136.00 3133.00 Bias-down: under 3106.00 3103.00 ...would target 3091.00 3088.00 Signal status: waiting for trigger . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

And maybe a gap-and-go. Relentless Overnight Trending attracted reinforcements past the 3099.00 open to form a position of strength. They weren't rejected through the first hour which suggested overnight momentum remained intact through the bias environment. The rally extended to 3117.50 as the bias environment exit began. Now this afternoon has triggered no-bias. No objective is required other than for either bias signal to define the window's range if tested. So, a sell signal under 3111.00 still being tested has room down to the 3103.00 bias-down signal if it is productive. A buy signal above 3117.25 not being tested would have room up to the 3121.50 bias-up signal. That's all during the bias environment, which could trend further later. Meanwhile, the open's gap up and the bias environment's rally form the basis for a gap-and-go. The setup is triggered -- counter-intuitively -- by the afternoon only hovering at or around the morning's highs. Probe higher and pullback, dip a little but avoid the open, or just flatline. Any of those behaviors would complete the gap-and-go. A gap-and-go often corrects the prevailing trend the following if not also through half of the next session, too. The setup is fulfilled by probing higher highs, whether or not through its close. We'll discuss the setup during Market Wrap if it ultimately triggers. Touching or closing under the open today would not qualify, and would simply be bearish.

Wednesday's gap up to 3098.75 was the product of Relentless Overnight Trending. It attracted reinforcements to signal trending up through the morning that got to 3117.50. A gap-and-go setup failed to form by trending higher out of the afternoon bias environment. RSIs diverged negatively on a late blip-up to 3029.50, and its reaction down attacked 3115.00 through the close. Uh-oh, that late reaction down retraced the entire gain since exiting the bias environment. The gap-and-go setup's afternoon hovering could have helped to preserve the uptrend, by sacrificing near-term momentum. PM Traction would have signaled upside momentum remains intact, but the setup lacked its confirming element. Fresh highs through the proxy window would have made extending higher likely through the close (reference this paragraph's first sentence). The context meanwhile remains bullish. After Tuesday's fresh high close already fulfilled the minimum requirement of last Tuesday's confirmed breakout, immediately closing higher Wednesday suggests the uptrend remains intact for higher highs. A pullback has room down to 3091.00, 3086.00, and 3066.00, without even beginning to suggest the trend may be reversing down. Anything lower would at least suggest a much deeper pullback underway. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3130.50 3127.25 ...would target 3140.00 3136.75 Bias-down: under 3115.25 3112.00 ...would target 3101.75 3098.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.