Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... The follow-through to Tuesday's "session-long rally" had developed largely overnight, extending 19-20 points higher to attack 2825.00 and gapping up to attack 2822.00. Wednesday morning's reaction down probed 4 points under Tuesday's 2805.00 close, and also 6-7 points under the morning's bias-up signal in a bias-up environment. Its required retracement extended back up to the overnight high, and a reaction down into 2813.00-2817.00 was retraced even higher to test 2828.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... The 2820.50 Globex open reacted to Mexico tariff news by gapping down, immediately retracing Wednesday's late break to fresh highs. The gap down extended to fully test 2813.00-2817.00, which held. Retracing the gap back up to Wednesday's close was reversed to attack the Globex opening range. Already firming into Europe's opens, the recovery extended to fresh highs at 2838.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Wednesday's close above 2824.50-2826.00 had developed too late for the next higher objective to be reliably in-play. The market found a way to fulfill both of the mixed signals, first retracing to relevant support testing 2813.00-2817.00, then surging to the 2830.50-2833.00 objective. And through it, to resistance at this morning's bias-up target. None of it requires being retested intraday if already reversing down before the open, especially if bias-up doesn't trigger. Not already reversing down through the open would likely extend even higher to 2845.00. The ECB monetary policy statement and Chairman's Q&A is the last major anticipated external catalyst prior to Friday's Employment Situation report. Morning volatility should be greater than the afternoon. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2838.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2836.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2833.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2830.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2827.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Not for lack of proximity. The first hour has fluctuated within a 2825.00-2835.00 range, centered around 2827.00-2828.00. That would suggest a Dry Cleaners morning, except for there being an objective to attract price down. That lower objective is an offsetting test of the 2822.00 bias-down signal. It is in-play because the 2830.50 bias-up signal held its test before triggering no-bias at 10:15. Already, it has been attacked by fresh post-10:15 lows down to 2823.25.

Coming to within 5 ticks of the objective isn't close enough to neutralize it. If not tested this morning, then it will become "unfinished business" that requires an eventual test.

And it seems likely that 2822.00 will become unfinished business, since a bounce is now testing 2833.00. That's also above the 2830.50 bias-up signal, which should otherwise define the no-bias window's upper-end. Its retest will be required, too. This detour may just be a version of Dry Cleaners morning, chopping about wildly. Or, a catalyst or headline might appear momentarily that explains the sudden buying pressure. Regardless, an eventual test of 2822.00 is required, and probing any lower could trap this morning's two post-open bounces.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2835.50 2835.75 ...would target 2841.50 2841.75 Bias-down: under 2825.00 2825.50 ...would target 2818.75 2819.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Both chop, AND slop. This morning's choppy action has persisted through the noon hour. Unfinished business at 2822.00 hasn't prevented bouncing to 2836.50. Meanwhile, bouncing to 2836.50 didn't ensure triggering this afternoon's 2835.75 bias-up signal. So, this afternoon is a no-bias environment. Its 2835.75 bias-up signal should define the window's upper-end if tested. It has been under attack for the past hour. Probing higher would require its retracement. Breaking under 2831.00 would start signaling momentum reversing down. The delay in neutralizing 2822.00 should make its support less likely to hold. Regardless, trending -- or trying to trend -- ahead of tomorrow's Employment Situation report would be difficult to extend.

Trending ahead of an Employment Situation report isn't common. Usually no other developments can attract sponsorship so near such a weighty news item. Thursday afternoon's Mexico tariff news was well-timed to overcome that tradition. Hugging the afternoon's 2835.75 bias-up signal ended almost precisely at the bias environment's 2:30 exit, spiking up to 2844.00. Its consolidation resolved up to 2853.00 as the 3:37 position-squaring window opened. The balance of the session retraced the last upleg, gravitating back down to 2842.50. Officially buyers had already gained traction from entering the final hour above the bias environment high and then trending up through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. Being the product of headlines doesn't undermine the setup, which should be rewarded by uptrending Friday morning -- unless the open immediately rejects the afternoon's bias environment back under its 2832.00 low. Trending into an Employment Situation report tends to weak-handed sponsorship. Its sentiment is vulnerable from a contrarian perspective. Thursday afternoon's sideshow obscures the usually purer input, but not already reversing down substantially pre-open or dipping only shallowly could still probe higher intraday. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2850.25 2850.50 ...would target 2857.00 2857.25 Bias-down: under 2839.25 2837.75 ...would target 2829.25 2829.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.