Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Sunday night's gap up was the first reaction to Friday's post-close news of having averted Mexico tariff hikes. Its pullback had hovered through the night back under Friday's 2886.25 high, but finally began rallying again into Monday's 2890.75 open. And through it, attacking 2906.00 by noon. The afternoon retraced it all, back down through the open and attacked Friday's close to within 2 ticks. And then to 1 tick into the close. Overnight action's new info... Gapping up in an uptrend above all prior intraday highs requires being retested from below by a qualified bounce. A qualified bounce means originating from within a prior session's lower range. Monday's 2890.75 open was retested from below by a bounce that had originated 2 ticks too shallowly. A last-minute dip did touch Friday's 2886.25 close, and reacted to within 1 point of Monday's open by the cash session close -- then through it by 1 point before reversing back down to 2886.25 in early Globex trading. But no lower. That is, no fresh low under the intraday low, not even 1 tick. The balance of the night has trended up relentlessly to 2904.25, within 6 ticks of yesterday's high. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Unless asked, I won't again describe the 2 tick / 1 point deficiency of whether yesterday's opening gap was filled by a qualified bounce. In fact, I'm reviewing whether certain conditions would allow adding a corollary to its rule so a 3-tick proximity can qualify. For example, the redundancy could offset being out of sequence. None of which would ever predict immediate weakness, and only require the prevailing trend to reassert itself... Which last night's rally is in position to do, having trended down into the close and now indicating a gap up above yesterday afternoon's 2898.25 bias environment high. Exceeding it through this morning's open could trigger a "session-long rally." Touching yesterday's 2905.75 high would require its timely recovery to form the setup. A caveat: trying to exceed either relevant level but failing through the relevant window would be as bearish as its success would have been bullish. And its success could be pretty bullish. Meanwhile, relentless overnight trending is vulnerable to not attracting post-open reinforcements, which also tends to be as bearish as it would have been bullish. Regardless of its direction, this morning's resolution is likely to trend, and unlikely only to range sideways. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2904.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2901.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2897.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2894.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2892.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Not for lack of trying. Improvement after the Market Tour made yesterday's 2905.75 high the requirement for the open to exceed. It didn't, but not for lack of trying. The 2907.00 opening print was above all prior intraday highs, so it would require a retest. Post-open action extended up to 2911.50. But the opening 15 minutes of volatility went out testing 2907.00, as resistance, after reversing down sharply to 2900.50. So, the bounce testing testing 2907.00 was qualified, and the open's attraction was neutralized.

Also by reversing down, the open failed to maintain its probe above yesterday's high. A "session-long rally" setup became moot. And failing to trigger the fully-formed bullish setup has produced a bearish resolution. The 2894.50 bias-up signal was just probed by 3 points. This is still a bias-up environment, requiring the bias-up signal's recovery when the bias window lapses, else 2894.50 become "unfinished business above" that undermines a decline.

Back above 2092.25 would start signaling the rally is resuming. Yesterday's close under 2892.00-2894.00 already makes that difficult, if not unlikely, as this morning's surge discovered. Exiting any relevant window back under yesterday afternoon's 2898.00 highs, 2892.00-2894.00, and yesterday's 2886.25 low would be increasingly bearish.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2892.75 2893.75 ...would target 2898.00 2899.00 Bias-down: under 2887.50 2888.50 ...would target 2879.50 2880.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Can sellers do much more today? The open's reversal from 2911.50 was well-rewarded. Probing the bias-down signal by 3 points down to 2891.50 was retraced high enough and for long enough that the bias-down signal could define the window. Then the decline resumed, extending to attack 2879.00 at the noon hour's end.

That's under the overnight low, and within Friday afternoon's range. Responding to natural support and a retest of the 2880.50 bias-down target, the bias environment is now bouncing. Still being a bias-down environment, its 2888.50 bias-down signal must still define its upper-end.

The opposite of extending the decline is NOT to retrace it. The opposite would simply not extend the decline. This is not a binary choice, and the alternative to extending down today need not rally. Yesterday morning and the overnight were all about backing-and-filling. The bearish scenario would become more so by the balance of the session only ranging sideways. Or, flat-to-lower, sawing through support. But even a rally may not be bullish, not without also closing back above 2892.00-2894.00. Closing under for the second consecutive session would confirm what yesterday's close under it already had said: that the upside is done.

Monday night's rally began after its intraday decline had stopped optimistically short of touching Friday's 2886.25 high as support. Nevertheless, Monday's 2906.00 high was probed pre-open by 2 points, and post-open by almost 6 points up to 2911.50. Although a little higher than was likely, the surge remained vulnerable to reversing down sharply, which it did. All the way back down into Friday afternoon's range to 2879.25 as the noon hour ended. The failure of any rally effort Tuesday was made likely by having closed Monday back under 2892.00-2894.00. Now Tuesday has repeated the setup, and from a higher level. A lower close would have been even more bearish, but the cash session close was essentially unchanged. Tuesday was still an outside day (exceeding either end of Monday's range intraday), which the afternoon already consolidation. All "unfinished business" above has been neutralized, and backing-and-filling has already run its course. But for the possibility of shallow overnight strength to wait for intraday sponsorship, there is little excuse not extend down without delay. Bouncing aggressively and/or through Wednesday morning would suggest that the rally has resumed anyway. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2889.25 2890.00 ...would target 2895.50 2896.25 Bias-down: under 2883.25 2884.00 ...would target 2875.75 2876.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.