Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday's open was greeted by Relentless Overnight Trending from 3176.50 to as low as 3087.00. The opening 15 minutes trended down enough to invalidate counter-trend sponsorship, while signaling lower lows through the morning. The drop actually extended to 2985.25 where the last half-hour ranged sideways to finish at 2992.50. Lower and lower lows through the bias window exit and final hour entry formed PM Traction. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Counter-trending was apparently waiting for the Globex open. Trending up choppily touched 3043.50 one hour before Europe's opens, which were greeted back down at 3016.00. The rally resumed and is now testing 3063.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Several setups are in-play. PM Traction formed yesterday afternoon and is already bearish. It expects trending down through the morning, regardless of gapping open up or down. That suggests the other two setups still forming will also trigger bearish. But they can trigger bullish, regardless of the conflict, and they would likely be more influential for being more current. A bearish morning now has a lot of room below to expend selling pressure without reinforcing or confirming yesterday's damage to the rally's chart.

Having trended down into yesterday's close, gapping up above the afternoon's 3044.50 high would form a session-long rally. Maintaining it and preferably extending it would trigger the bullish setup. Exiting the open back under 3044.50 or even still overlapping it would make the setup as bearish as it would have been bullish. Relentless Overnight Trending greeting the open like yesterday can attract reinforcements or counter-trend sponsorship. Trending either way through the open would signal a bearish or bullish morning. Not a setup, just a usual behavior, is that trending Thursdays tend to be duplicated on Friday. Not by measurement so much as characterization. It is a function of Friday Factors, and not necessarily reversed by default. But the same Friday Factors influence could still produce hordes of short-covering and other buying ahead of the weekend.

First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3044.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3035.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Don't blink,  you'll  you've missed it. Yesterday afternoon's PM Traction setup rules. Or, overrules. Exacerbated by Friday Factors influence. The Relentless Overnight Trending had attracted reinforcements, by trending up through the open to back above the 3072.50 overnight high, attacking 3077.00. Trending down through the open would have been bearish, signaling a correction or retracement of the overnight rally through the morning. The latter, bearish scenario developed anyway.

Sliding through the bias environment filled the gap back down to yesterday's cash session close, probing it by 2 points to attack 2990.00.

Maintaining AND improving the gap up above yesterday afternoon's 3044.50 high got the extra degree of difficulty for also recovering yesterday morning's 3068.00 higher prior lows. That triggered a bullish session-long rally. If that's still intact, then the noon hour must probe the morning bias environment's 3062.50 high. Just another 50-70 points higher, so probably not. Fresh noon hour lows would instead suggest the session-long rally has inverted to session-long decline. Added to the usual behavior of Friday duplicating strongly trending Thursdays -- as if this morning's collapse wasn't enough -- could trend to fresh lows targeting 2930.00-2933.00. Meanwhile, I noted in the chaRTroom that the drop's latest stage did have an excessive feel, attracting selling pressure motivated only by the post-open drop. Its self-fulfilling prophecy often burns out for a sideways ranging afternoon on Fridays. In fact, a 42-point bounce is now attacking this morning's 3035.00 bias-up target before noon.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3055.00 3043.00 ...would target 3067.00 3055.00 Bias-down: under 3039.25 3027.25 ...would target 3028.00 3016.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Here we go again? Bouncing out of the morning's bias environment got back up to yesterday afternoon's 3044.50 bias environment high. Just reacting down would have sufficed for proving its continued relevance. Its reaction has actually extended to fresh lows -- under yesterday's 2985.00 low to test 2971.00. A deluded RSI accompanied price dripping lower during the noon hour. The 1-minute RSI's lows repeatedly avoided becoming oversold, helping to distrust every interim bounce. Now having become oversold, a durable bottom can't even begin forming until both 1-min and 3-min RSIs diverge positively. RSIs just diverged positively at the low, perhaps a last chance to avoid an afternoon collapse. And a collapse potentially targets 2931.00-2933.00. Friday's duplication of Thursday meanwhile seems very much in control, along with Friday Factors that can exacerbate a move.

Relentless Overnight Trending into Friday's 3069.00 open attracted reinforcements up to 3071.00 through the open. And gapping up back above Thursday afternoon's 3044.50 high triggered a session-long rally. Simply by not confirming through the open, both setups' bearish signals would have signaled. Which developed anyway. Thursday afternoon's PM Traction setup launched a Friday that duplicated a strongly trending Thursday. Reacting up from the morning's attack on 2990.00 retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the post-open drop to test 3044.50. Its reaction down to the afternoon's 2971.00 low was also retraced by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the post-open drop back up to 3036.00. Another similarity between the two bounces is that neither gained traction for its effort. We'll discuss the bigger picture ramifications, and game out Sunday night and Monday night trading strategies at this weekend's Saturday Review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3051.25 3039.00 ...would target 3068.00 3056.75 Bias-down: under 3028.25 3016.00 ...would target 3101.00 2998.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.