Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Draghi's dovish remarks had rescued an overnight dip from its 2889.00 low, to test week-old highs at 2915.75. China trade headlines then turned Tuesday's gap up into a surge that extended to fulfill the rally's 2932.00 objective. A brief probe higher touched 2936.50 where RSIs diverged negatively, launching a 2-hour 17-point pullback testing 2919.50. That's where selling subsided as support combined with the noon hour lapsing, and Wednesday afternoon's FOMC events inhibited further trending. The balance of the session round-tripped up to 2929.00 and back down to 2919.50. Overnight action's new info... Relatively narrow sideways ranging has been largely contained between 2924.00-2928.00, probing either end only one time each, and once again returning to unchanged. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) There is no "unfinished business" above requiring a retest. Optimism isn't excessive, but there's no pessimism overnight as even the slightest dip was avoided. Perhaps while awaiting this afternoon's FOMC events, pessimism will creep in this morning and take advantage of the room down to "lower prior highs" down to 2902.25-2906.75 from the past week's range. But if pessimism isn't apparent through the open, then flat-to-higher ranging back toyesterday's 2936.50 high would be more likely. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2931.50 would be likely to trigger the 2930.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2927.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

"Dry cleaners morning"? No, but still don't force it. The narrow sideways overnight range extended yesterday afternoon's narrow sideways range. And the open was greeted from unchanged. Trending from a standing stop is unlikely, or unlikely to be durable if attempted. In fact, the post-open dip to 2921.75 was exceeded only by a 5-tick sentiment extreme. Its reaction up to 2926.75 has been retraced entirely. It's a choppy opening range, but no wider than the afternoon and overnight preceding it. And it's a no-bias environment, without having touched either bias signal, so no offsetting test is required. Testing either bias signal should define that end of the window, or require its retracement if probed. More volatile action is unlikely ahead of this afternoon's FOMC events.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2923.00 2927.75 ...would target 2931.00 2935.75 Bias-down: under 2913.50 2918.00 ...would target 2907.25 2911.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Nothing but noise. The FOMC policy statement is at the top of the hour, with Fed Chair Powell's Q&A a half-hour later. As has become tradition, the focus will be on language more than on actions. Whether or not the word "patience" appears in the text, or is defended during the Q&A, the market has been full of it. Yesterday afternoon's 9-point range and last night's 9-point range have produced an even narrower range this morning. The noon hour's exit briefly probed a fresh session low, momentarily piercing yesterday afternoon's low. It's all one big range. This morning's warning can be applied to trading the FOMC reaction, albeit a little more broadly. But generally, trending attempts aren't likely to extend before being retraced, if not also reversed. The burden of proof is on sponsorship to establish a trend, more so than just a reaction.

No matter how substantial the trending attempt, this setup tends to end back within the pre-existing range. Not ending with the range would have its own predictive value, being likely to extend in that direction into Friday's expiration.

Wednesday afternoon certainly wasn't the most opportunistic FOMC day. Its knee-jerk reaction was a stunning range -- down 6 points to 2915.25 and then snapping back up 20 points to 2935.25. Its gradual reaction down tested and retested 2924.00, and recovered even more gradually for a late attack on 2937.00. Greeting the events from withing the extended sideways narrow range doomed any reaction to failure. That doesn't always doom any reaction from putting in a laudable effort, after the knee-jerk reaction's 20-point range. But Wednesday's subsequent price action was only choppy and overlapping. Just another version of the extended sideways narrow range that preceded it. Structurally, the knee-jerk reaction's high was likely to be retested, and it was. Calculably, testing it up to 2936.50 was likely also to visit 2940.00, but it wasn't. At least, not yet. Greeting Thursday's open in decline from testing 2940.00 overnight would be credible for launching a downleg, so shallow brief pullbacks may be the key to extending higher. Meanwhile, probing prior highs intraday and closing negative would have formed a bearish WedEX. The prior high was barely pierced, and closing under it was still in positive territory, mitigating the signal's bearishness. Trending down into negative territory through Thursday's open would serve by proxy to enhance the WedEX bearishness. Trending up would only neutralize it -- a bullish WedEX can no longer form. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2934.75 2939.00 ...would target 2941.00 2945.25 Bias-down: under 2921.50 2926.00 ...would target 2913.50 2918.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.