Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday's session ranged narrowly, entirely inside Friday's range until the last couple of minutes. The open had gapped up and probed higher during the first hour up to 2960.00. The balance of the session trended back down gradually through the close. The last-minute pierce of Friday's 2950.50 low (and also of its close) was only shallow down to 2948.75. And then only momentarily, closing back at 2951.00-2952.00. Overnight action's new info... Globex's The first trending attempt was up. But the 2957.50 bias-up signal was barely pierced before reversing down sharply. The 2942.25 bias-down target was touched soon after midnight. That would be the overnight low, so far, as price action since then has twice attacked and twice probed the 2948.50 bias-down signal as resistance -- which is still holding. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The rally has been unable to find new sponsorship since Thursday's open gapped up, only ranging sideways for three sessions. At some point of waiting for new sponsorship to arrive, the rally decides to seek them out at lower levels. That effort has room down to 2932.00-2933.00 while maintaining the uptrend. Last night's effort, albeit ending precisely at this morning's bias-down target, could be retested down to 2940.75 before starting to make 2932.00-2933.00 likely. Otherwise, not triggering bias-down would suggest the rally has found enough sponsorship to restart, for now. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2940.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2942.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2946.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2948.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2953.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Target met, but later probed. The overnight bounce from touching this morning's 2942.25 bias-down target had found resistance 7 points higher. Testing and retesting 2949.50 finally broke higher in time to touch 2953.00 just before the open. Recovering 2953.00 at 9:45 would have made the bias-down signal unlikely to trigger. But collapsing through the open rejected 2953.00. Failing to recover 2946.00 at 9:45 made the 2948.25 bias-down signal likely to trigger. It did. In fact the 2942.25 bias-down target was already being tested. And it was still being tested at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. But simultaneously oversold RSIs -- albeit relatively higher oversold -- give a benefit of the doubt to extending down anyway. The next lower likely objective and bottom candidate continues to be 2932.00-2933.00. Back above 2943.75 and 2946.00 would start to signal momentum already reversing up. Meanwhile, the trend remains down.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2938.25 2943.00 ...would target 2944.75 2949.50 Bias-down: under 2931.50 2936.50 ...would target 2926.50 2931.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Found buyers, yet? Although this morning's bias-down signal wasn't renewed, still testing its 2942.25 bias-down target at 10:15 did help to keep the door open. Which the market eagerly pushed through, first retesting the overnight low down to 2940.75, and then lower. The 2932.00-2933.00 objective was met during the noon hour in reaction to Bullard dismissing a 50bpp rate cut. Room for noise down to 2926.50 was essentially tested in reaction to Powell defending rate policy against political urging, presumably by Trump.

There's no more room for noise. Fresh lows must be recovered upon exiting the bias environment, or a more substantial decline is underway. Exiting the bias environment without yet reversing the trend up could still resolve either way.

Currently, only Powell's comments have been retraced. The knee-jerk reaction to Bullard's earlier comments don't require being retraced, let alone reversed up. And the bias-down environment is resisted at 2936.50. Recovering both as the window lapses could allow a substantial recovery through the close.

When is a buy signal not a buy signal? When it's a sell signal, of course. I recorded part of this morning's move to illustrate the tactic of "fading" an inflection point. Not all traders want to step in front of a move and take the opposite position expecting the bounce to "fade." But my inflection point calculation identifies a candidate, and fading the inflection point's test offers the most favorable risk:reward tactic. In the video, a bounce limit had been violated and a buy signal was being touched. Either the bounce was ending, or it was becoming a recovery. It helps to know there was potential for a fresh low and its precise level. A sell signal was identified where the drop would likely resume. But rather than wait for a dip back down to the sell signal before shorting, this video tracks and comments on a short-entry AT the buy signal. Allowing only several ticks or a couple of points room for a stop above, compared to the potential downside objective, played out well.

An important note: The attractive risk:reward entry doesn't make the pattern any likelier to perform. The stop may still be triggered. Fade entries simply offer a relatively cheap entry -- which is only as good as the trader's commitment to honoring the stop-loss.

WATCH THE EXAMPLE HERE

Three days of ranging sideways around 2951.00 had gotten in need of strong-handed buyers to resume the rally. But they weren't being attracted to the range. A probe of fresh highs would reflect strong-handed buyers, if it had begun by gapping up Tuesday. Otherwise, buyers would need to be sought at lower levels. The likely objective was 2932.00-2933.00, which was attacked and probed during Tuesday's noon hour. Fresh lows testing room for noise down to 2926.50 reacted up to 12 points and still resolved down to fresh lows at 2920.00. Similar to Tuesday's open, avoiding fresh lows all but requires gapping up sufficiently Wednesday. Also similar, gapping up sufficiently could form a "session-long rally," where trending down into one close is rejected back above its afternoon high at the next open. That's essentially 2939.00. Otherwise, the trend remains down, with the next lower objective being a gap-to-gap fill at 2902.-2906.50, and then 2896.00-2898.00. All of which is possible as only a correction of the rally, and still able to resume the rally. Any deeper could start to become something much more substantial and longer-lasting. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2922.50 2927.25 ...would target 2928.25 2933.00 Bias-down: under 2912.75 2917.75 ...would target 2906.75 2911.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.