Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Ranging sideways overnight inclueded a couple of probes above Wednesday's intraday highs up to 3171.00. Shallow probes, but still qualifying probes. Which means nothing in itself, unless Thursday's opening 15 minutes is exited back under the 3164.75 earlier Globex low. Which it was, triggering a bearish Globex-flip. The setup's context suggests the morning would trend down. Not necessarily as steeply as Thursday morning, which collapsed down to 3105.00. Having satisfied all available downside objectives to 3111.00, a rally back up to 3154.50 into the final hour ended at 3141.00-3143.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Thursday's late high was soon attacked up to 3154.25, but only briefly. Reversing down persisted into Europe's opens and extended to 3111.50. Its recovery up to 3135.00 reacted down temporarily to 3118.00, but now its recovery back up to 3135.00 is struggling again to extend any higher. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) 3135.00 is this morning's bias-down signal, and that's basically the bearish scenario. Triggering it would put into play its target, but there's no bullish reason to retest the same levels already tested and held both yesterday and overnight. So, triggering bias-down would essentially target 3093.00, where Friday Factors would make it difficult to recover the current 5-day sequence of consecutive sessions overlapping the recent high's range. That would satisfy the burden of proof which is meanwhile on sellers. Avoiding this morning's bias-down should at least marginalize sellers for the morning, and keep open the door to trending up into the weekend. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3143.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3135.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3130.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 3120.75 would be likely also to exceed the 3125.25 bias-down target to renew the bias-down signal.

Choppy open holds off sellers again. At this morning's Market Tour, the overnight drop's recovery back up to the 3135.00 bias-down signal's resistance was failing its second attempt to probe higher. That resolved back down to attack 3118.00, like its previous recovery attempt. All hope wasn't lost, but it wasn't in the lost-and-found bin. I don't really know what that means. Anyway, PPI's modest reaction was suddenly exacerbated by GILD's headline to attack 3144.00. That didn't prevent an Opening Thrust from retesting the 3135.00 bias-down signal, which reacted up to attack the 3150.50 bias-up signal to within 2 ticks. I do know what that means. There were three overnight threats for trending down, and two post-open to trigger bias-down, which essentially equates to another collapse. If the ongoing rally can't exploit that to reverse momentum up through the morning, then the rally is probably done. Having held the 3135.00 bias-down signal's test through 10:15, and offsetting test of the 3150.50 bias-up signal is in-play. Probing it this morning would be no-bias trending that requires being retraced before extending higher can be reliable. Nothing prevents this afternoon from reversing down, or requires trending at all.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3170.75 3161.00 ...would target 3187.75 3178.00 Bias-down: under 3152.75 3143.00 ...would target 3140.25 3130.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Sellers probably, likely, usually, (maybe) marginalized. Look out below if not. We've already discussed the several overnight efforts to resume yesterday morning's decline. Even yesterday's lowest calculable pullback limit was retested to within 2 ticks at 3111.50, while struggling to recover 3135.00. Pre-open headlines shifted the rally from defense to offense, triggering a rally to 3147.00. The pre-open rally created room to expend post-open selling pressure without it yet damaging the recovery's chart. A post-open dip that attacked 3126.00 to within 2 ticks was recovered to higher highs testing 3160.00 into the noon hour.

But this is still an inside day compared to yesterday's range. No traction can yet be gained either way. Trending up remains possible, but not required.

At least sellers may be marginalized. Although the opening thrust wasn't confirmed through fresh post-open highs at 10:00 or 10:30, the burden of proof is still on sellers to break any lower. Often on Fridays that translates to drifting higher into the close.

This afternoon's 3161.00 bias-up signal is now being probed, so no-bias trending limitations might inhibit it from extending higher like this morning's bias-up signal did. But look out below if this no-bias trending is only stretching the rubber band before snapping back down into the close.

A bigger reward for having absorbed Thursday's collapse to 3105.00 was not part of the overnight agenda, which retraced the collapse down to 3111.50 instead of improving the recovery above 3155.00. But Friday's opening thrust held the 3135.00 bias-down signal and a brief dip to 3126.50 was quickly rejected as sellers were all but marginalized for the day. Unfinished business at 3177.00 was ultimately probed by 3 ticks, on the way to fresh highs for the week by a 5-point margin up to 3179.50. Monday had neutralized longstanding unfinished business back up to the 5-week old Island. It's  unlikely that the interim hesitation and pullback was recovered entirely Friday just to hold its retest. Meanwhile, now a 6-day string of overlapping Monday's range has built an ever bigger base. And the bigger picture's complex Ascending Triangle remains intact, and in the wings. We'll discuss those influences and game out strategies for Sunday night at this weekend's Saturday Review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3190.75 3181.00 ...would target 3207.25 3197.50 Bias-down: under 3175.75 3166.00 ...would target 3161.75 3152.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.