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CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday's lower close failed to confirm Wednesday's breakout. The alternative setup was fulfilled by trending down sharply instead. No traction was gained Thursday afternoon, but oversold RSIs were left outstanding at Thursday's 2153.50 low, as was unfinished business above at 2171.25. Overnight action's new info... Thursday's 2158.00-2159.00 had ranged flat-to-lower down to 2156.00, but recovered entirely ahead of Europe's opens. Trending since then has extended up to test yesterday afternoon's 2164.25.sell signal as resistance. If, then... It is significant that not only was Wednesday's breakout not confirmed, but that its reaction was to trend back down. Another breakout attempt today is unlikely. So, attempting another breakout attempt today would likely be rejected, too, perhaps more substantially than Thursday. Not gapping down gives the morning an opportunity to retest Wednesday's 2169.75 highs, and to fulfill the 2171.25 unfinished business above, first. But similar to confirming Wednesday's breakout, the alternative to exploiting the opportunity would be to resume Thursday's decline. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2166.50 would be likely to trigger the 2165.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2161.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Choppy open makes path up available. The pre-open reaction down from the 2164.50 overnight high had held several tests of 2160.00. Post-open action slid immediately to 2157.25.

3-4 more 3-4 point swings and 45 minutes later, price action was still holding 2160.00 resistance. Three of the first hour's five 15-minute checkpoints had overlapped the same relevant level -- yesterday's 2158.50 cash session close -- signaling a 'dry cleaners morning."

While trending is unlikely, there's a lot of room for noise. Especially back up to the 2164.50 overnight high, or 1 point higher just to touch the bias-up signal. An interim attraction at 2163.00 is being tested now, and might be an obstacle. Gravitating up remains likely so long as 2160.00 holds as support. Probing even higher into the afternoon still has potential to test 2171.25. And a test of 2171.25 still has a likelihood for reacting back down sharply.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2173.50 2167.50 ...would target 2179.00  2173.00 Bias-down: under 2166.25  2160.25 ...would target 2160.25  2154.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Probing back into yesterday morning's range. The choppy open's ranging under 2060.25 and its "dry cleaners morning" setup didn't change how much room was allowed simply to fluctuate. The 2164.50 overnight high could be probed by 1 point before even touching the morning's bias-up signal. In fact, the no-bias environment attacked the overnight high to within 2-3 ticks. The noon hour extended up to 2167.25.

That's within 1 tick of this afternoon's bias-up signal. And a narrow range hasn't been able to break higher for the past hour. Now it's too late to trigger. Probing above it would be "no-bias trending," likely to react back down into the bias range to 2165.00. Any lower would target 2165.50.

Breaking above 2168.00 could extend to probe Wednesday's high up to 2171.25. Or higher, while still being vulnerable to reversing back down sharply before the close.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) The decline resumed Friday, trending down to the lowest levels since first recovering from the Brexit reaction, still targeting a retest of the Brexit reaction's 1.0945 lows. Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Closing above 1325.50 and 1329.00 Thursday didn't prevent gapping back down under both Friday. If not recovered intraday, then the gap back up to Thursday's close becomes an attraction above. But its recovery is needed before being assured that the pullback's bottom has ended. Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping back down Friday under 18.75 ranged around it intraday instead of extending lower. Closing back above 18.85 and higher would signal the pullback had ended, and a retest of the highs was underway. 30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Holding the 171-22 buy signal Thursday didn't prevent probing above it overnight to 172-09. Its reaction down into Friday's open bounced off of 170-22 to probe above the overnight high. Closing above 173-04 would confirm a recovery leg underway targeting 176-10. Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) The long-standing 43.80 target was met.Friday morning, even before the afternoon's bearish rig count data. Closing above 44.25 would suggest the decline would start bottoming. Closing under 43.65 would signal the decline was extending Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Two consecutive sessions of holding the maximum 2.65 pullback limit were squeezed Friday by the weekend's impending illiquidity, surging to attack the 2.80 buy signal. Recovering it and 2.85 would signal and confirm the 2.98 prior high's retest was underway, and likely to be probed.

Not gapping down Friday was likelier to bounce than to resume Thursday's decline. Friday's rally from 2158.00 to 2169.00 went further. Closing easily above Thursday morning's lows put back into play any objective created by Thursday's open holding those lows. That's 2171.25. Absorbing Thursday's detour down to 2153.50 is likely to be rewarded. And Friday afternoon's rally leg being inhibited by headlines might be compensated for its delay. So, testing 2171.25 would likely probe above it to 2175.50. Reacting down again, instead, is unlikely -- this pattern has been there, done that, from this area. So, extending down into Monday's open could reverse back up to form a Pivot Reversal, or else extend down more dramatically intraday. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

We'll game out possible opens and review the bigger picture at this weekend's Saturday Review, beginning at 9:30 am ET in the chaRTroom here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2174.75 2169.00 ...would target  2181.25  2175.50 Bias-down: under  2169.50  2163.75 ...would target 2163.75  2158.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.