Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday's flat open deceptively seemed like a recovery, after having probed both bias-down parameters overnight. But that was too late to still be challenging positive territory. So the open's blip-up to 2821.75 snapped back down through the noon hour to 2798.25. The pullback's next lower objective at 2801.50 was met, and held as support through the close. Actually, 2801.50 was still being overlapped at the close, but not broken. Overnight action's new info... Yesterday afternoon's choppy ranging has only narrowed overnight. A very shallow upward tilt has gradually improved from 2803.00-2804.00 to touch 2811.00. Perhaps not yet actually improvement, and still little more than it is just noise. Or, anxiousness. If, then... Monday's closing test of 2801.50 can still be rejected by proxy, if Tuesday's open were to gap up above the prior high. That's Monday afternoon's 2811.25 high, currently being attacked. Avoiding fresh overnight lows isn't necessarily stability, not without alternatively rejecting yesterday's trend. Overnight action is close to probing 2811.25, but its recovery at the open would be more credible if already serving as support. And having trended down into Monday's close, the setup would also trigger a session-long reversal. Shallower opening strength would remain vulnerable to another downleg targeting 2875.00-2881.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2811.25 would be likely to trigger the 2808.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2805.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

The "session-long rally" had rendered itself improbable before the open. Not for lack of proximity, as yesterday afternoon's 2811.25 high had been tested, retested, re-retested, only to react back down to 2806.50. But greeting the open 3 points under 2811.25 without yet probing above it did not fulfill the spirit of rejecting yesterday's late dip. That's too simple, so a headline entered the picture. Spiking up to attack 2819.00 did create a gap up above 2811.25. But it had already become too late for new sponsorship to be considered as rejecting yesterday's late decline. The headline (China trade talks resumption) was the spike's catalyst, and its origin was likely to be retraced at some point.

Ultimately, 2811.25 maintained its recovery through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, but price did not trend up. The session-long rally setup was officially moot. The 2814.25 bias-up target was being tested at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. And the 2808.50 bias-up signal was eventually retraced.

There is no unfinished business or other attraction in-play for the duration of the bias environment. Its exit may be another story. Session-long rally is moot, but an upleg can still be launched. Similarly, breaking under 2808.50 as the bias environment lapses could probe under 2801.50, and lower.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2824.00 2824.25 ...would target 2831.50 2831.75 Bias-down: under 2815.00 2815.50 ...would target 2808.50 2809.00 Signal status:NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The present value of future cash flow is essentially the underlying guide to longer-term stock market trending. At the opposite end of the spectrum is be individual company earnings announcements, which can inhibit trending. But the latter is only momentary, and often ignores the earnings reaction by the reporting company's stock. Earnings have more influence inhibiting price action before the announcement than after it. Earnings is otherwise irrelevant. Except indirectly. Like now. I've been revisiting a theme since NFLX's earnings plunge, that FAANGs strong-handed sponsorship has stopped accumulating. They don't have to become sellers for prices to drop, only stop pushing price higher or buying dips. Being leadership, the broader market initially reacts down. But often the stopped accumulation becomes rotation into laggards, sending the the market higher one more time. AAPL's post-close earnings were perhaps responsible for inhibiting Tuesday afternoon from extending the morning's rally. Maybe it was responsible for retracing the afternoon's 2824.25 bias-up signal test back down to 2818.00 (dropping to 2813.50 was due to the session's second China trade talks headline). Surging back up to 2824.25 through the close was enabled by month-end portfolio positioning. Extending higher through Wednesday's open would all but confirm one more upleg is underway, targeting 2873.00. That will be difficult initially if AAPL misses, sending FAANGs lower again. Even then, as I describe during the Market Wrap recording, an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction by AAPL could fulfill upside targets and end the day reacting back down sharply. Tuesday's rally may have created enough room to absorb another round of selling pressure without reversing the trend down. But there is no bullish reason for Monday's test of 2801.50 to even be attacked Wednesday. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2823.00 2823.25 ...would target 2830.75 2831.00 Bias-down: under 2812.75 2813.00 ...would target 2807.25 2807.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.