Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday's similarity to Wednesday -- not so much in form as in function -- continued the behavior as if lost in the Bermuda Triangle. The morning's late no-bias signal left its 2866.25 target outstanding. The afternoon's noN-bias fluctuated narrowly and couldn't sustain its attack on session highs. Those are similar in function, reflecting weak-handed sponsorship on both sides. The final minutes repeated Wednesday's late plunge back to session lows. Wednesday's "unfinished business below" at 2852.00 was almost met. Overnight action's new info... The ongoing inability to rally was likely due to the 2852.00 unfinished business below. And probing under it down to 2841.00-2843.00 to compensate for the delay had become likely. Thursday night's slide immediately fulfilled 2852.00, and then kept grinding lower to attack 2848.00. Breaking sharply lower extended to 2839.00 into Europe's opens. Ranging sideways back up to 2844.00. An overnight measurement to 2838.00 was finally fulfilled down to 2836.75, and now 2841.00-2843.00 is being tested as resistance. If, then... An Isolation setup is probably off the table. The overnight test of lower attractions should be threatening Thursday's lows by now. Testing and holding 2841.00-2843.00 through the open could at least start forming a low. A bigger bounce from gapping down would likely dip from 2851.00-2852.00 to back-and-fill before a durable recovery. Post-open selling at some point is almost required, to let the intraday crowed express what the overnight crowd has been doing all night. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2843.00 would be likely also not to recover the 2846.00 bias-down target by 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2848.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2851.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Post-open bounce only delays the inevitable. We knew that 2841.00-2843.00 was likely to be tested as compensation for the delay in testing 2851.00-2852.00. So, has probing another 10 points lower over-compensated, or is that the start of something much deeper? Ranging around 2841.00-2843.00 expanded into the open. Resistance at 2843.75 repeatedly held, and repeatedly reacted down to lower and lower lows. The last reaction was the steepest and deepest, dropping 8 points to attack 2835.00 in a half-hour. Bouncing into the open was essentially doomed to failure. Significant overnight moves -- especially down -- tend to require that the intraday crowd produce its own extreme. The post-open bounce up to 2841.50 only delayed the inevitable, and eventually collapsed down to 2832.00. Now another bounce attacking 2840.00 is trying to recover. The impediment of requiring fresh post-open lows is done, but it took so long that counter-trend (up) sponsorship is less credible. Bounces are likelier to fail, and another fresh low is likelier than not.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2844.25 2844.50 ...would target 2850.75 2851.00 Bias-down: under 2835.00 2835.50 ...would target 2826.75 2827.25 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Just can't break back above the drop's target. This morning's post-open drop eventually touched 2832.00. Its recovery into the bias environment exit fully tested 2841.00-2843.00... as resistance. 2841.00-2843.00 had been the downside objective created by Wednesday-Thursday's delays. But now it is resistance. Already probing back above it this morning would have turned it back into support, supporting an afternoon of backing-and-filling that could resolve up. Too late for that. Now this afternoon's 2835.50 bias-down signal has barely held to trigger "late no-bias." It should define the window's lower-end. Hovering here until the window lapses would be vulnerable to breaking lower into the weekend. This being a Friday, breaking lower prematurely -- i.e. no-bias trending -- could extend down anyway. In fact, fresh afternoon lows are testing 2833.00. Which could extend deeper. Recovering the no-bias trending is always the likelier resolution, but Fridays are the least reliable.

Friday morning's 2832.00-2843.00 range fluctuated widely around its gap down to 2837.00. The noon hour was greeted at session highs, which fell relentlessly through the noon hour and afternoon bias environment to 2826.00. That's 17 points below the high, and almost 28 points below Thursday's close. So, it's interesting that the market left a trail of bread crumbs to help find its way back up Friday afternoon. No-bias trending under 2835.50 was the biggest crumb, which a late surge up to 2838.00 tested along with the 2837.00 opening gap. The return trip got its start by neutralizing the low's oversold RSIs. And that was done after a newly violated bounce limit, by impatient sellers that were easily absorbed. Ultimately, the afternoon's fresh low was recovered to close back above the morning's low. There's no unfinished business below, and sellers were robbed of their traction. But momentum hasn't reversed up, which needed a close above 2841.00-2843.00. Still a lot of selling pressure was expended, without sellers gaining traction for their effort, and without signaling the trend reversing down. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. SATURDAY REVIEW'S LINK WILL BE EMAILED BEFORE ITS 9:30 ET START TIME.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2840.25 2840.75 ...would target 2847.25 2847.75 Bias-down: under 2831.25 2831.75 ...would target 2824.75 2825.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.