Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Rallying relentlessly overnight 35 points greeted Wednesday at 2925.25 with four bullish setups, and none was invalidated or inverted through the open. Also, none was exploited intraday. Most glaringly, the session-long rally setup which never probed the first timing window's high. At least the Globex hand-off setup formed a position of strength that prevented the day from reversing down, and the doubly renewed bias-up signal did produce a fresh post-open high. Also, the FOMC release's 6-point spike down to fresh session lows at 2918.00 was recovered entirely. The Isolation setup's reward to retest Monday's 2932.25 high was left outstanding. The session was a big ball of pent-up buying pressure. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) A delayed response to Wednesday's pent-up buying pressure wasn't delayed any longer, and price did literally explode higher. The 2925.00 cash session close had already improved 5 points through the futures close to pierce the morning's high. That was extended to fulfill the retest of Monday's 2932.25 high, and the Globex open soon spiked up to 2939.00. But then just as quickly, the explosion was done and its dust started settling. Wednesday's 2925.00 cash session close was retraced by midnight, and then another 2-3 points deeper by Europe's opens. Their own explosion higher surged 12 points to 2935.50, but it failed faster than the Globex open's surge was retraced. Fresh lows touched yesterday's late 2918.50 low, and like yesterday's late low, bounced back to 2925.00 and then higher to test 2930.00. La plus ca change... If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) If an explosion goes off in the woods, does it matter? Yesterday's ranging was frustrating for having begun with four bullish setups. We considered it to be pent-up buying pressure that would almost literally explode higher, and it did -- without any delay. But only post-close, and only to be retraced. Retracing has reloaded buyers, albeit no longer as likely to explode exploding higher. Nevertheless, now the 2925.25-2933.00 area is support instead of resistance, so not extending the overnight reversal into negative territory (and forming a bearish Isolation setup) would likely be attracted back up to the overnight high. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2925.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2920.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2918.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2927.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2929.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2933.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Explosion, explosion, explosion, implosion. Having already exploded higher through yesterday's close, the question was whether an intraday surge was still needed. And not only through yesterday's close, but after the Globex open up to 2939.00, and after Europe's open. Both were retraced deeper and deeper, eventually touching yesterday's late low at 2918.50. No other explosion developed. Another pre-open surge, and then post-open to probe fresh highs to 2939.75. But a negative reaction to PMI and a Fed speaker's comment reversed momentum back down. Sharply. Tests of both bias-up parameters were rejected to put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. Bias triggered late, so the 2914.75 bias-down targets tests wasn't required, but it has been probed anyway by 9 points down to 2905.75. Oversold RSIs there require an eventual retest, and fresh lows would next target 2896.00-2898.00, or lower. Bouncing back above 2914.00 could produce a detour attacking unchanged at yesterday's 2925.00 close.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2927.50 2927.25 ...would target 2921.00 2920.75 Bias-down: under 2910.50 2910.50 ...would target 2903.00 2903.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bias-up target already met. This morning's about-face got to 2906.00 before slowing. All the while, 3-minute RSI was persistentlyoversold to warn against knife-catching. A spike down to 2904.25 was accompanied by 1-minute RSI diverging positively, which wouldn't have been bullish except that 3-minute RSI left oversold territory. Its reaction up had two objectives, and each was met at 2920.75 and 2924.75. This afternoon's 2920.75 bias-up signal triggered, too, soon meeting its 2927.25 bias-up target. And still holding. Testing the bias-up target is also a test of positive territory above 2924.75. Maintaining positive territory and extending beyond 2927.25 could very easily retrace back up to this morning's highs. Probably higher, because the effort would intend to resume the rally. Otherwise, already having probed beyond either end of yesterday's range, this outside day could more easily drift sideways for the next hour, if not also through the close. Which would still be bullish, so long as the 2925.25-2933.00 range doesn't launch any deeper reversal down.

The "Timex" pattern? Takes a licking, and keeps on ticking. The 2925.25-2933.00 kill zone's influence hasn't diminished. Maybe enough to rename it the wound zone. Reactions down have gotten shallower, and recoveries have become more frequent. Of course, recoveries have become more frequent thanks to shallower reactions down, but those recoveries are chipping away at the zone's resistance. Wednesday night was the most aggressive collection, yet. Spiking up through the zone to 2939.00 at the Globex open, and again after a complete retracement before Europe's opens, then at least surging after retracing even deeper to 2918.50. The last recovery pierced the earlier overnight high at Thursday's open and reacted down much deeper to 2904.25. But only briefly, and even that was recovered to almost 2933.00 at Thursday's close. Closing above 2930.00 would have been a compelling hold-long, but it was rejected by a last-minute reaction down to 2921.50. So, still no signal that 2925.25-2933.00 is any closer to breaking higher. Except that the close is still within its proximity, and its resistance has been further chipped away. Already rallying overnight would be preferable, and credible for leveraging Friday Factors' impending illiquidity to squeeze sharply higher intraday. Similarly, exiting the open back under 2903.00 or 2896.00-2898.00 could collapse into the weekend. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2933.50 2933.75 ...would target 2940.00 2940.25 Bias-down: under 2917.50 2917.50 ...would target 2908.00 2908.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.