Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday's knee-jerk reaction to Fed Chair Powell's pre-open Jackson Hole remarks surged to 3491.00, but still retraced Wednesday's 3475.00 cash session close through the open. More wide swings probed higher and higher highs up to 3498.25 through the morning. The noon hour's 33-point collapse down to 3465.00 was retraced up to 3496.00. The last half-hour's pullback to 3480.00 still produced a new high close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Having neutralized its lower attraction into the close, the market bounced back to attack yesterday afternoon's highs. The 3493.50 bias-up signal held until a surge extended sharply higher to 3509.50. There was just enough complexity at the 3508.00 bias-up target to qualify as a new Globex trend extreme. Slipping into midnight was followed by sliding through Europe's opens to attack 3485.00. A shallower probe back above yesterday's highs is trying to gain traction. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) [Click here to review a comparison of price action during the two political conventions that ended last night]... At yesterday's close I had described how the intraday patterns had plotted a path lower, if sellers were to gain any traction. Last night's probe of new highs changes nothing, other than to open the reversal door a little wider. Yesterday's session had recovered from an intraday reversal into negative territory. Now the overnight has retraced another probe into new highs. Last night's setup hasn't reversed into negative territory, and that's not just a predestined formality. But turning negative before the open could form bearish Isolation and Globex-flip setups. Otherwise, holding up through the open and preferably probing yesterday's highs could be leveraged by Friday Factors to extend higher into the weekend. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3498.25 would be likely to trigger the 3493.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3488.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Taking the path down? Gapping up to 3494.00 was still under yesterday's highs, keeping the burden of proof on buyers. Immediately extending down filled the gap to yesterday's 3485.25 futures close, which held for the first hour. A buy signal at 3493.50 was repeatedly attacked and touched but never triggered. Meanwhile, hovering at session lows reflected stability, but stability does not equal strength. Price has trended down to test 3481.00. The open's touch of the 3493.50 bias-up signal allows the no-bias environment to put into play an offsetting test of its 3474.00 bias-down signal. Currently a bounce to 3489.25 is threatening a higher detour. But 3474.00 will become unfinished business if left outstanding. Back under 3484.25 would signal the decline has resumed. Testing 3474.00 this afternoon could be just a formality to extending deeper along the path down I have been describing.

FRI P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3499.25 signal would target 3508.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3484.25 signal would target 3474.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3502.25 3499.25 ...would target 3411.00 3508.00 Bias-down: under 3487.25 3484.25 ...would target 3477.00 3474.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Dip holds, not rejected. The first hour's 8-point range supported by yesterday's 3485.00 close had finally broken lower. But RSIs soon diverged positively into probes under yesterday's 3482.00 cash session close. Rallying through the noon hour tested 3496.50 without even threatening this afternoon's bias-up signal. Its reaction down to 3486.50 hasn't threatened this afternoon's bias-down signal, either. This window's price action should develop between the two 3484.25-3499.25 signals. Breaking either way later would be credible. Breaking higher would be suggested by exiting the bias environment above the 3496.50 noon hour high. Meanwhile, breaking under the 3484.25 bias-down signal would likely reinstate the move targeting this morning's unfinished business at 3474.00.

Thursday night's surge to fresh highs at 3509.50 had retraced overnight down to the 3485.00 futures close. Reversing into negative territory at 3481.00 was isolated during the morning bias environment. It was Friday's only probe of negative territory, and the balance of the session fallied back up to 3506.50 for a new trend high close on a Friday. Friday's final intraday blog update had described the Friday Factor setup that would form by exiting the bias environment above the 3496.50 noon hour high. The setup produced the session's last leg. Unfinished business was left outstanding below at the morning's 3474.00 bias-down signal, and above at the overnight high's 3509.50 new Globex trend extreme. A new trend extreme close on Fridays requires at least an eventual higher close. Next week ends not only in the Employment Situation report, but also in a 3-day holiday weekend. We'll discuss their influences at this weekend's Saturday Review See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3511.50 signal would target 3521.75. BIAS-DOWN: under 3499.25 signal would target 3490.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3514.50 3511.50 ...would target 3524.75 3521.75 Bias-down: under 3502.25 3499.25 ...would target 3493.00 3490.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE