Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday's third rejection of initial optimism had come by it more honestly than the prior two sessions. Rather than first creating a higher objective before collapsing, Wednesday's open fulfilled higher objectives. And then collapsed. Despite no higher attraction left outstanding, and a 12-point morning drop, the drop resolved in a 16-point rally back to and through the open's highs. The balance of the session dipped nearly 6 points, closing back under the morning's high, and back under prior sessions' highs. The afternoon's rally had extended during a no-bias environment, leaving "unfinished business below" at 2501.00. Overnight action's new info... The late dip from 2509.25 to 2503.50 immediately extended down to 2501.50. Firming from there up to 2505.50 was already reacting down ahead of Europe's opens. Price action since then has only narrowed into a 2-point range. If, then... Wednesday afternoon's no-bias trending above its 2501.00 bias-up signal required being retraced. The overnight dip to within 2-3 ticks fulfills that requirement. But it doesn't necessarily neutralize its attraction. Initial strength would be credible for extending higher, and not quickly exploiting that upside opportunity would suggest that it won't be. No-bias trending also often retraces to its 1:20 print, which is 2499.00. And the delay in retesting 2501.00 doesn't help to defend against breaking even lower, if not reversing. Having closed under the open's high and under prior highs, starting the day with downside momentum can more easily extend, and gapping down wouldn't require filling the gap back to Wednesday's close. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2506.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2508.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2501.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2498.25 bias-down signal. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome it's Thursday it's time for Thursday's Morning Market to or not a lot going on overnight that in itself is worth noting because what did go on initially was to extend yesterday's Lake pullback dip drop not quite plunge not quite the plunge that the Post open Action had produced the biggest Post open plunge of the last three sessions which is noteworthy because I'm not the biggest plunge over all the biggest rejection considering the probe into positive territory but the biggest because it was because it was a third consecutive the market seemingly ready for that but not because of this big and I said opening surge into positive territory above recent prioritize big because the open neutralized unfinished business has been created by and abandoned and because there was little requirement in Santee to recover whereas the two sessions had left unfinished business above had come from environment that required being defined as defined by its broke the next session coming from the environment is lower ended required being defined by the bias up signal that broke yes it was a requirement to be defined by the lower end of that range or I'm trying to buy a signal that later broke or soon broke but we're covered anyway we're covered anyway and overly optimistic Lee because that afternoon rally included a probe of the 2501 buy a signal during an environment which Like Mondays no bias under the bias down signal overnight 2501 being objective and it hasn't been touched it's not on anymore but if it isn't being rejected and explaining pretty quickly that the downside of traction has been neutralized then it is not exactly then it's not that it's been fulfilled then it's not exactly neutralized and by the way the 120 print Inn Novi as trending not just to buy a signal itself but wherever the market was training 120 when nobody else was triggered he has retraced as well that's 2499 and by the way delaying the three tests which has now been delayed past the next little sponsorship to defend against it and down we go at the influence yesterday had a similar setup except that it went so far as to fulfill upside injectors and then fail and if something similar happens here then we'll get it all upside rally there's no upside objectives that have to be fulfilled we can get virus benefit of the doubt but got to get out of a 2506 at least of the oven in 15 minutes about 30 if not more so one more picture and it will move on and that is close was above prior session size or was it first of all it was not even above the morning that's not really bullets that can represent inertia when they open and the clothes are a equivalent or B reversed equivalent did not get any traction for that effort but also let's just look back several prior session size but within the range so but then again if this doesn't hold if this test basically of 78 doesn't hold 77 30-35 is next targeted trying to struggles at what is the inflection point struggles to find sponsorship for maintaining so we're still looking for 1:32 chipping away at 8 and so this opportunity at 8:30 that's still the Buy Signal or back to being the Buy Signal we're back above 81-65 would have been the bicycle but you got to recover 8080 pretty quickly and not being recovered pretty quickly the year 1765 when really they suggest that it's not going to hold that it will be tested and broken and broken under 117 and then finally confirmed requiring immediate reaction the reverse as well for production the risk-reward gets really good on selling that bounce as far as whether that's going to be the end of it we're still get paid still testing the loads I don't that's just not about having pattern leaving a gap outstanding below so does it have to be another lower close not necessarily but it's not bothering me at this point gold sort of hanging out here yesterday which is necessary at all testing prior low so it does look like we're heading to I'm going to call at 12 Sunday 9:50 to 12:50 which is sufficient I would say though 1280 50 if that's going to suffice as well as a low needs to be done in today doing it overnight to fall short stop short for his premature having said all that while we're looking for 12 8952 actually be a test at least be part of the intraday low if the open if the open Rabil to convert that overnight recovery to actually get out above 1298 let's call that a bicycle 1298 9850 would indicate momentum had sufficed otherwise no still heading to 1279 50 a bottom silver sort of similar closed down 1650 potential there's one at 1669 1670 reacting finally for the bottom and we're looking for which is a resistance at what would have been the bicycle 15430 butt and 152 perfectly qualified to serve as aloe starting to see calls for a big bottom Market drop look for a bottom so usually when the horrible is nearing its end because we could have extended because of that and didn't so little restrained optimism so the cell signal is raised in other words there's that much more room now from this a lot by the way from 5055 to 5155 there's that much more room for sewing pressure without a traversing momentum down but when it does if it does if that's the signal that actually ends up triggering which is possible because if you noticed a pattern here ascending triangle if that's not maintain or confirmed through a second consecutive out of clothes that's a tough pattern to avoid reversing 52751 candidate for that break out to end 5415 basically another opportunity to end this break out the back into that triangle without yet confirming a Breakout and then December is 323 25 cent premium the news from a position of strength with not 284 not 284 basis October outstanding but let's call it 3:10 at least outstanding so not greeting Tuesday Wednesday so at least a reaction if there's a reaction optimistically ultimately it would rather leave outstanding to attract price higher later any questions that I will see you there before they open.

Opening chop finally resolving up. The relatively narrow overnight range finally tried trending, only minutes after I had mailed out this morning's Market Tour. The break was down, but it was otherwise operating under the same principle as Tuesday's late break higher -- that  its sponsorship was weak-handed and unlikely to extend. The late break down touched 2499.00, fulfilling its potential for a retest. That didn't change what we already knew, that rallying immediately would be credible for extending. So the open blipped-up to 2503.50. And held there. Buyers still got a benefit of the doubt, but sellers kept chipping away at it. Not until minutes after triggering no-bias did a more productive recovery effort begin. And it has extended to attack 2506.00. There's room to test the 2508.75 bias-up signal as resistance. But no requirement to even touch it. And exiting the bias environment back under 2501.00 would start to signal a more serious intraday decline was underway.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2509.50 2507.00 ...would target  2514.50  2512.00 Bias-down: under  2502.25  2499.75 ...would target  2496.50  2494.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Firming into the afternoon. This morning's opening surge from 2501.00 had taken some time before extending higher. But it extended higher. The noon hour extended higher, too. Not much, but it extended higher.  This afternoon's 2507.00 bias-up signal is being tested. Extending higher wasn't required. And now it's also difficult. Still testing 2507.00 at both 1:20 and 1:30 has triggered noN-bias. Which is to say that neither bias-up nor no-bias triggered. No upside attraction, and no requirement to hold resistance. Often, the noN-bias will behave like no-bias and hold resistance. Often, noN-bias will hover at its bias-up signal to break through it when no longer no-bias trending. Hovering at the bias signal through the bias environment lapsing often rallies, anyway. If the setup reacts down, then it should not be produced by strong hands.  

Thursday's buyers didn't need to be weak-handed. The prior session had probed new highs, and overnight action had neutralized "unfinished business below." And it was neutralized by a break lower that originated too late to be credible for extending down. There was no attraction above, yet Thursday was biased upward, trending up intraday. Inside days that are biased upward are often the product of weak-handed sponsorship. Their resolution is often to reverse down, having expended buying pressure the prior day without gaining traction for the effort. Avoiding a resolution down depends essentially on attracting reinforcements, which should be obvious by gapping up Thursday. Resolving down is likelier, for the same reason that rallying Thursday was unlikely -- because Wednesday's new highs were reversed to close under prior highs. We'll still give a gap up a benefit of the doubt for extending higher, but trending down is likely if not gapping up. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2512.25 2509.75 ...would target  2518.50  2516.00 Bias-down: under  2503.75  2501.25 ...would target 2498.50  2496.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.