Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday's gap up to 2934.50 was well above Friday's 2919.00 close. And above Friday's 2925.50 high. Also above Thursday 2932.00 high. Wednesday's 2936.00 high had been probed overnight before finally dipping 6 points to test 2932.00 as support. That late discount attracted reinforcements at the open that quickly extended the rally to 2942.00. The balance of the session trended down nearly 20 points to 2922.50. Positive territory (barely) held which is a lot of selling pressure to expend without gaining traction for the effort. But even attacking Friday's range let alone touching it suggested that buyers weren't such strong sponsorship as the overnight and opening surge had suggested. "Lower prior highs" down to 2928.00 were recovered as support through the close. Oversold RSIs at Monday's low will want to be retested. Overnight action's new info... The selling and downtrending has persisted. Immediately blipping-up to 2930.75 immediately began reversing back down to attack Monday's lows. First to 2924.00 before midnight, and then to attack 2921.00 into Europe's opens. Reacting up to the 2925.25 bias-down signal resolved in new lows down to 2917.50. Now its reaction is attacking 2925.25 as resistance. Could yesterday's close be recovered next? If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) That last question could prove pivotal, whether today's open is back up above yesterday's 2928.00 cash session close. Just recovering yesterday's 2922.50 low to form an Isolation setup would still probe Friday's range intraday, which a rally should be rejecting forcibly as early as possible. Recovering even further overnight to open back above the earlier 2930.75 low would upgrade the Isolation setup into a Globex-flip that adds momentum to recovering this morning. Until then, there's risk of resuming and extending the slide considerably. "Unfinished business" above would be minimal, as yesterday retraced the prior Friday's high session by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}, although that's not optimal. And the high's gap up remains unfilled. So, ether Monday's drop is in the process of completing a backing-and-filling pullback, or else gapping down Tuesday under Friday afternoon's 2915.50 low will be vulnerable to collapse. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2923.50 would be likely to trigger the 2925.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2929.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Flat open fails to exploit pre-open recovery. The overnight drop ultimately touched 2917.50 before recovering to open at 2928.00. And that soon extended to touch the 2930.75 earlier Globex high through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Its recovery would have formed a bullish Globex-Flip, but the setup was attempted too late to be relevant. Meanwhile, the 2928.00-2929.50 range's resistance wasn't entirely recovered. What had been "lower prior highs" from above, is now resistance from below. Yesterday's close within its range at least prevented the intraday drop from reversing the trend back down. But the open didn't recover it.

The 2925.25 bias-down signal avoided triggering at 10:15. It also avoided being touched by then, so  no offsetting test of its bias-up signal is required. However, probing under it after 10:30 is "no-bias trending" that requires being retraced.

In fact, probing under 2925.25 to 2924.00 has snapped back up to fresh post open highs attacking 2932.00. The price action is more evidence that sellers lack sponsorship -- at least the pattern remains vulnerable to recovering.

But another failed recovery attempt would make fresh lows likelier. And fresh lows would threaten yesterday's 2922.50 low, undermining the open's Isolation setup, and the potential bottom.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2932.25 2937.00 ...would target 2938.25 2943.00 Bias-down: under 2924.75 2929.50 ...would target 2919.75 2924.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Post-open dip reverses to fresh session highs. This morning's no-bias environment tested and retested its 2925.25 bias-down signal, but only after 10:15 when it was too late to trigger. Probing it after 10:30 was "no-bias trending" that required being retraced. And it was. A surge recovered the open's 2930.75 high, and ranged around it until the no-bias environment had begun lapsing. Then another surge extended up to 2936.00. The rally might have extended if not for headlines from a Fed Chair speech that triggered a drop to 2931.00. The knee-jerk reaction has been recovered to attack 2935.00, but this is another no-bias environment. Breaking above its 2937.00 bias-up signal when the window starts lapsing would be entirely credible for extending higher.

Tuesday's unchanged open at the 2928.00-2929.50 range was a helpful early indication that sellers had not gained traction. And sellers had had an excellent opportunity to gain traction, having probed 5 points under Monday's 2922.50 low. But the drop  down to 2917.50 was isolated to the overnight, and a post-open dip to 2924.00 was recovered to fresh highs at 2936.00 at noon. Then that stopped. Then things changed. Choppy sideways action through the afternoon tested 2931.00 through the noon hour and recovered 2936.00 at the bias environment high. But the bias environment exit started trending down, and touched the open's 2924.00 low. So, just one big sideways range right? Actually, sellers gained traction by entering the final hour under the bias environment low and then trending down deeper through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. Their reward is at some point to probe under 2924.00 -- either into the close, overnight or Wednesday morning, or some combination -- regardless of its durability, degree or resolution. Which might seem to contradict the position of strength created by mid-day hovering under 2936.00, and managing to close back above 2928.00. And it might ultimately contradict it, by dipping back down to and through Friday afternoon's 2915.50 lows, where the pattern becomes vulnerable to collapse. Meanwhile, my assumption is that a shallower dip will itself be isolated, and then be retraced to resume the recovery. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2928.25 2933.00 ...would target 2834.50 2939.25 Bias-down: under 2921.50 2925.25 ...would target 2914.25 2919.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.