CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET) This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilincPre-Open Stock Market Plan - 6:58 AM
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Stock Market Opening Signals - 10:41 AM
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Tonight's Market Predictions - 12:02 PM
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Market Mid-Day Predictions - 12:54 PM
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Daily Spot...Bonds breaking? - 2:22 PM
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Market Summary - 4:31 PM
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Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 4:32 PM
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Bias Summary - 4:39 PM
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Pre-open slide tries extending. Nice try.
The open was bouncing from 2016.00 to 2019.00. Selling resumed and fresh lows were probed down to 2014.25. Almost as quickly, 2019.00 was being retested as resistance. And that has extended up to 2024.00.
The 2018.00 bias-down signal's test held through 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2026.50 bias-up signal. Higher highs probed after 10:15 make it much more difficult to invalidate the objective.
Despite having probed higher after 10:15 up to 2024.00, a reaction down is testing 2018.00 as support. It's too late to trigger bias-down, and to late to invalidate the no-bias. So, this should be bias environment range's lower-end.
Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under 2018.00 might undermine extending higher today. But actually invalidating the upside attraction would require exiting the bias environment under the 2014.25 pre-open low.
MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2034.00
2026.50
...would target
2039.00
2031.50
Bias-down: under
2027.00
2019.50
...would target
2021.50
2014.00
Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Offsetting test neutralized, and neutralizing.
Holding a test of this morning's 2018.00 bias-down signal through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 2026.50 bias-up signal.
Absorbing the initial probe of 4 points under 2018.00 didn't require any greater reward. Neither did absorbing the 6-point dip back down to 2018.00.
However it is that 2026.50 came to be met, its attraction is now neutralized. Combined with filling the gap back to Friday's close in that area, and with the noon hour beginning, a pullback is now testing 2021.50.
Fresh session highs visiting 2031.50 are likely so long as the afternoon's bias-down signal doesn't trigger. Only a temporary visit to 2031.50 is possible, followed by reversing down to sharply into the close. Regardless, there is no unfinished business above in-play.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down under last week's late lows stretched the rubber band tighter, still having room down to 1.1300 before being required to snap back up, or else to break sharply lower.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite having held its 1180.00 pullback limit as support Friday, Monday's open gapped down and extended to test 1170.00. Gapping up Tuesday above 1180.00 would keep in-play the potential to 1195.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday's gap down to 15.85 support precedes any probe of fresh highs, miking its recovery above 15.95 likely, and likely to launch a new upleg.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night's test of the 158-04 sell signal was extended intraday to 157-18 before bouncing. Being a breakout from three consecutive range-bound sessions, a second consecutive lower close Tuesday would confirm the trend had reversed down.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher immediately Monday would have confirmed that Friday's weak rally had actually rejected the prior two sessions' "ineffectual pessimism." Immediately dipping at Monday's open threatened instead to invalidate Friday's bounce.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday wasn't credible for extending higher since Friday's drop had barely touched the prior low without yet actually probing under it..
Fresh session highs were supposed to be the consequence of not extending Monday afternoon's dip below the morning's lows. The cash session close did make that happen, barely, piercing the morning's high by just 1 tick up to 2027.00.
Still, yet another intraday swing was overlapping 2019.50, instead of rejecting its resistance or breaking through it. ts room for noise up to 2031.75 should be tested just by formality.
With or without first probing fresh highs, falling at only a gradual slope wouldn't be credible for extending down durably. But probing higher aggressively and avoiding a quick rejection would next target 2055.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzrzxs
TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2038.50
2031.00
...would target
2043.75
2036.25
Bias-down: under
2028.00
2020.50
...would target
2021.50
2014.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
The post-close email was missing the link to the post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzrzxs