Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday night's retest of Monday's 2031.50 high had quickly peaked and reversed down on the way to 2020.50. A pre-open retest of 2031.50 wasn't rejected immediately, but much more substantially. The open's drop found support upon testing 2020.50 but its next test slid to 2013.00. Fresh lows into and out of the close slid to 2007.50. Overnight action's new info... Optimism and apprehension? Firming early back up to the 2017.00 area peaked by midnight. With the ECB rate decision and Draghi speaking, price action since then has only ranged sideways back to 2012.50. If, then... The pattern since last Thursday afternoon's 30-point rally to 2019.50 had only ranged sideways through Tuesday's close, albeit biased upward. Tuesday night's surge to 2034.25 was a fresh high for the range, and Wednesday afternoon's 2007.50 was a fresh low for the range. Much of the selling was probably defensive posturing ahead of this morning's ECB/Draghi events. So, was it prescient that the events would spur even more dramatic selling, or has that been discounted so much that a rally back to the upper-end comes next? We'll know a lot more very soon. But a path back to the highs is still possible if the open isn't already duplicating yesterday's slides. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2016.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2013.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2020.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2019.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2025.50. Exiting the open under 2003.50 would be likely to trigger the 2005.75 bias-down signal.

Probing fresh recovery highs. The pre-open surge to 2023.50 was recovered after retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}. And then it extended higher, absorbing a post-open pullback to ultimately maintain a gap up above yesterday afternoon's 2024.25 high. Contrasted against having trended down into yesterday's close, the result forms a "session-long rally." Each timing window but one should probe above its prior timing window's high. The slope can be shallower. The risk is that substantially higher prices inhibit more buying sponsorship, and instead attracts sellers. A lot of energy has been expended and a lot of ground has been covered, probing all prior highs up to 2035.50 before 10:15.

Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under 2024.25 would "invert" the setup. The balance of the session would behave like a session-long decline.

Already probing fresh highs after 10:15 does make inversion less likely. Still, trending up through every timing window would make the last window likely to reverse down. I'll continue discussing the setup's different characteristics as they become relevant.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2048.25 2041.25 ...would target  2053.25  2046.50 Bias-down: under  2040.75 2034.00 ...would target 2035.50  2028.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP. BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Still no counter-trend timing window. This afternoon's bias signal will trigger in more than a half-hour at 1:20. Its 2046.50 target is being tested now by more than 2 points. Entering the bias environment above its target would renew the bias-up signal. Continuing this behavior could fulfill the rally's next higher objective at 2055.00 today. Relentless trending is unusual. Also unusual is for the "session-long rally" setup to print fresh highs during the noon hour. One timing window should rest, if not also retrace. Now only two timing windows remain: the afternoon bias environment and the final hour. Simultaneously overbought RSIs suggest that reacting down here would recover. A pullback during the bias environment would suggest that the final hour will probe new highs, and possibly trend up through the closing ticks. But a pullback and recovery BOTH during the bias environment would make the final hour vulnerable to reversing down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) The potential for resuming its rally was overcome by the vulnerability to extending its decline. Two prior sessions of hovering optimistically short of filling its gap back to Friday's close didn't help to absorb Thursday's bearish ECB news. Room for noise down to 1.1300 was easily exceeded on the way to a prior low at 1.1140. Closing above 1.1180 would signal the drop was only a one-day wonder. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Narrow ranging Thursday morning around the 1165.50 pullback limit that had held already Tuesday doesn't prevent resuming the decline, but it does give confidence to a more aggressive buy signal than 1180.00, triggered above 1173.50. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday's gap up tested 15.85 which helped to reject Wednesday's dip under it. Closing any higher Friday would be credible for launching a new upleg to fresh highs. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday's maximum bounce limit test had reacted down initially Thursday, but another upleg probed higher above 159-00 into Thursday afternoon. Back under 158-10 would resume the drop. Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Thursday's gap up was retraced entirely back down to Wednesday's low, in-line with the momentum reversal underway, which remains intact so long as bounces hold any test of 46.85. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday's reaction to the EIA report probed a fresh low at 2.36 before bouncing to test Wednesday's 2.38 low. This is still not a bottoming pattern, but there is no lower target in-play.

Topics that I intended to cover in this post-close note included the unfinished business above at the 2048.75 high's overbought RSIs. But that was neutralized by extending past the 2046.00 cash session close to fresh session highs. So, scratch that... Another topic I wanted to cover is the next higher objective above 2019.50. More than a week of ranging around it and overlapping it -- even labeling Wednesday's plunge as just testing the range's lower-end -- had prevented putting into play the next higher objective at 2055.00. But post-close action just met it. Soooo, scratch that one... We should remember the recent range's characteristic of surging, and then reversing down sharply as soon as the surge has peaked. Has this surge peaked? Simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at Thursday afternoon's 2034.50 low... wait, let me check... still requires an eventual retest. Often, the session-long rally/decline setups extend the following morning. Since Thursday afternoon's buyers didn't gain traction for their efforts, probing higher without gapping up would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply. Otherwise, overcoming those challenges and closing above 2055.00 would next target 2088.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrcsmxt

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at: non-xp ilinc

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2057.75 2051.00 ...would target  2062.75  2056.00 Bias-down: under  2048.75  2042.00 ...would target  2040.75  2034.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.