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Through the prior close... Fresh lows were probed through the noon hour down to 2051.25. The afternoon bias environment firmed back up to 2057.00, and then to 2060.00 into the cash session close. That was still in negative territory, and under the morning's higher highs at 2061.00 and 2063.75. Overnight action's new info... Surging through the futures close did probe the morning's high by 1 point up to 2064.75. But the post-close surge was rejected the Globex open which gapped down and retraced the cash session close down to 2059.50. That rejection was limited, and recovered, soon probing even higher to 2065.50. Now higher highs are probing another point higher to 2066.50. If, then... Tuesday morning's bounce already filled the gap back to Monday's 2063.50 close. Since that resolved in a lower low, there's no bearish reason to revisit that gap intraday. So, maintaining the overnight gains through the open -- especially if begun by gapping up through 2066.00 -- could trend up sharply this morning, before becoming paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of the afternoon's FOMC policy statement. Not maintaining the overnight recovery could resolve back down through yesterday's lows and also probe under 2048.00. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2066.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2065.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2061.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Pre-FOMC rally is expending a lot of energy. Expending energy, and also fulfilling it. The 2065.00 bias-up signal triggered, and its 2071.50 target has been met already. It's being probed up to 2074.00. Overbought RSIs will require its retest if a reaction down were to develop here. Greeting this afternoon's FOMC from a position of strength has been the expectation. But also expected was to react favorably and extend the rally. This was likeliest from dipping this morning to refuel buyers, however deeply, but already recovering into the 2:00 news. This morning's post-open dip was off of overnight highs, never actually reversing back under yesterday's cash session close. That's impatient optimism. Already fulfilling the bias-up target has satisfied that much buying pressure. FOMC can still be greeted from a position of strength by dipping back back down to "lower prior highs" around 2066.00. Leaving overbought RSIs outstanding at the highs would help to provide a safety tether. Greeting the news above all prior highs can still resolve up, but we'll be that much more assured of 2088.00 being a final destination for the correction.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2083.50 2077.00 ...would target  2088.75  2082.50 Bias-down: under  2076.75  2070.50 ...would target 2071.00  2064.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Still probing higher ahead of FOMC. This morning's 2071.50 bias-up signal was met and exceeded up to 2074.75. Consolidating into the noon hour's exit suddenly spiked up to a fresh high, which has been pierced up to 2076.00. Meanwhile, RSIs have begun diverging negatively. So, avoiding a corrective dip all but requires extending the rally aggressively. That upside path is being challenged by the impending FOMC effect that makes attracting new sponsorship difficult. A corrective dip down to 2065.25-2067.50 could help to ensure a favorable reaction back up.  Otherwise, extending higher at all could stumble and reverse down at its first hesitation.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Gapping up Wednesday probed above Tuesday's high to more fully utilize the room for a bounce up to 1.1100. Having fully utilized it, I noted during the morning Tour that a reaction down had become likely and likely at least to fulfill the minimum third lower close in-play. The FOMC reaction actually plunged to new lows at 1.0933. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Gapping up Wednesday through the 1170.00 buy signal extended through 1173.50 and also above 1180.00. The reaction before FOMC had attacked 1173.50. The reaction after plunged down to 1162.00, leaving no new signal. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Basing around 15.85 lifted off overnight  to trend up Wednesday and test 16.35. But the FOMC reaction erased it all back down to 15.85. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday's retest of the bounce limit of last Monday's 158-10 / 158-24 highs produced another reaction down Wednesday to 157-08. Firming in reaction to FOMC held above 157-02 to delay extending the decline. Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Tuesday's gap down had already indicated wider realization of the downtrend we've been tracking. But Wednesday's surge developed prematurely to the likelier bounce origin that wasn't yet reached. The bounce was nonetheless productive, testing 46.00. Back under 44.05-44.25 would signal the bounce had ended and that momentum was reversing down to at least 41.50-42.20. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) More ranging around 2.05-2.08 Wednesday continued forming a base that can launch a recovery leg if triggered back above 2.25.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2090.75 2084.50 ...would target  2095.75  2089.50 Bias-down: under  2083.50  2077.25 ...would target 2077.00  2070.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, BOTH BIAS SIGNALS TOUCHED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Wednesday's two shallow pullbacks at the open and during the noon hour reflected excessive optimism. Their interim rally had triggered bias-up and fulfilled it, but extended higher anyway. It doesn't get much more optimistic than that. Maybe a little bit more optimistic. A 6-point surge into the FOMC news touched a fresh high at 2079.00. Suddenly all of that optimism was sorely missed, just when it was needed most. Price plunged easily to fresh session lows at 2055.50. One brief, deep correction doesn't offset excessive optimism, but it helps. And the balance of the session rallied to new highs at 2085.25. Last Thursday's confirmed breakout required an eventual third higher close. That's now done. The rally's next higher objective after closing above 2055.00 was 2088.00. That's not done. But now testing 2088.00 intraday can reverse down durably intraday, without leaving unfinished business above. There's no requirement for 2088.00 to be touched, or for its touch to reverse down immediately, if at all. But there is no other "unfinished business above" in-play. It is being attacked by excessive optimism. And a lot of energy was just expended intraday in order to absorb a lot of selling pressure. The rally's sponsorship is weak-handed and vulnerable. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbtpxj

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at: non-xp ilinc