Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Rallying aggressively ahead of FOMC proved overly optimistic when the policy statement was released. A 6-point surge to 2079.00 suddenly became a 23-point plunge to 2056.00. But that was recovered, entirely, and then some -- by a 30-point rally to 2085.50. This satisfied the outstanding higher close put into play by last week's confirmed breakout. Overnight action's new info... An overnight drift attacking 2073.00 is probing back under each of yesterday's highs. While price is consolidating optimistically, that range's 2071.50 lows has yet to be touched. If, then... Can the reaction down from yesterday's surge be isolated to the overnight action? Rallying from a gap down, and probing a new trend extreme could be bullish -- if the recovery were maintained. Rejecting the intraday recovery could be bearish by forming a Pivot Reversal. And if that new trend extreme were to visit the rally's next higher objective at 2088.00, then a significant top would form. Otherwise, gapping down could extend lower this morning, and still be only a temporary correction. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2074.00 would be likely to trigger the 2077.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2068.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2070.75 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2080.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Rallying out of the open. And, then, not. The overnight pullback had been consolidating around this morning's 2077.25 bias-down signal. The open printed it and began extending higher. Ultimately the 2084.50 bias-up signal was touched. And held. The no-bias signal put into play an offsetting test of the opposite bias signal. But both bias signals have been tested already. So, no offsetting test is required. So, the no-bias environment should at least be defined by either bias signal if tested. The range can be invalidated in the next several minutes. Exceeding either bias signal through 10:30 would invalidate whatever was signaled by not yet exceeding it at 10:15. The reaction down from 2084.50 has dropped to 2078.25, and extending under the 2077.25 bias-down signal at 10:30 would invalidate no-bias.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2090.75 2084.50 ...would target  2095.75  2089.50 Bias-down: under  2083.00  2076.75 ...would target  2078.25  2071.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Wednesday's plunge from its 1.1100 bounce limit had dropped deeply to fulfill the minimum outstanding requirement. Gaping up Thursday and ranging exclusively in positive territory suggests as much, although a retest of Wednesday's low would be needed to begin forming a bottom. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday's FOMC reaction had become likely to extend to at least test 1150.00, which was  done Thursday down to 1146.00. Closing back above 115.00 would signal the decline had ended. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday's FOMC reaction that plunged back down to 15.85 support extended down Thursday. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm momentum had reversed down. Back above 15.85 would again target fresh highs. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Excessive optimism at Wednesday's low was repeated at Thursday's open, before plunging to the lowest levels in two weeks. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm a new downleg is underway. Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Fresh bounce highs Thursday probed above 46.00 but did not trend up, which could have produced a second consecutive higher close that signals a bigger corrective bounce underway. Back under 45.00 would likely resume the decline. Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The decline's hesitation even held through Thursday's EIA report. Through the report, but not necessarily through the day. A late dive probed fresh intraday lows at 2.25 before closing flat with Wednesday's low. Closing back above 2.31 would start to signal the decline had ended.

Market Wrap was held a half-hour early Thursday and I was unavailable at the close. The bias environment exit and final hour entry had not indicated any sponsorship was gaining traction. The vulnerability remained to the upside anyway, and the last hour rallied from 2079.00 to probe at least 2 points above the morning's 2084.50 high. And to well within 2 points of the rally's 2088.00 objective. Late rally and all but neutralizing a big attraction, without having gained traction. Friday should be fun. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvvrxpw [And here's the link to Thursday's pre-market Tour recording]

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at: non-xp ilinc

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2094.75 2088.50 ...would target  2099.75  2093.50 Bias-down: under  2086.75  2080.50 ...would target 2081.25  2075.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.