Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday's sideways ranging consolidated Wednesday's FOMC surge. Gapping down and ranging exclusively in negative territory was pessimistic, but not trending down made that "ineffectual pessimism." The morning's touch of 2084.50 resistance was probed momentarily by 2 points before the close. Overnight action's new info... It didn't take long for the rally's 2088.00 objective to be met. Its resistance held for 90 minutes before extending higher to 2094.75 through midnight. The balance of the session has drifted back down to test yesterday's highs as support at 2082.50. If, then... Probing new highs -- new highs above the year's earlier pre-crash highs -- would require overcoming 2088.00. Not just probing it overnight or intraday, but closing above it. And then closing above it again on the second consecutive session. But if 2088.00  satisfies this rally, then regardless of how high it is probed overnight or intraday, the close should be back below it. And the rejection of probing above it should be acute, spending only nominal time attracting weak-handed buyers before reversing down sharply. The bearish scenario presumes it is weak-handed buyers who have been pushing price higher impatiently, and would sooner exit than defend against a reversal down. Without repeating the overnight test of 2088.00, then closing under yesterday's 2073.00-2075.00 lows could signal its rejection already underway. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2091.00 would be likely to trigger the 2088.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2084.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2077.00 would be likely to trigger the 2080.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Overnight highs ignored by post-open action. The pre-open reaction down from 2088.00 greeted the open back at yesterday morning's 2084.50 high. Trending down to 2077.50 has triggered the 2080.50 bias-down signal, putting into play a test of the 2075.50 bias-down target. All of which might be invalidated. Recovering the 2080.50 bias-down signal through 10:30 would invalidate whatever was signaled at 10:15, since whatever was signaled at 10:15 hasn't yet been any more productive than before 10:15. In fact, a bounce is now testing 2080.50. Still overlapping 2080.50 at 10:30 would not qualify as invalidating it. Back under 2079.00 would signal the bounce had failed, and bias-down it is. And while its target is near, its recovery would not be required.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2090.75 2084.50 ...would target  2097.00  2090.75 Bias-down: under  2085.50  2079.25 ...would target 2080.00  2073.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bias-down dissed, but not dismissed. This morning's 2080.50 bias-down signal triggered. The bias environment didn't extend down any deeper than its pre-10:15 2077.50 low. Bouncing to 2080.50 at 1030 didn't invalidate the bias-down But the bias-down environment was never any more productive before it began lapsing, back at the 2080.50 signal. So, its 2075.50 bias-down target becomes "unfinished business below," which requires being tested eventually. None of which has prevented an interim rally that triggered the 2084.50 bias-up signal. And that has extended to fresh session highs testing 2088.00. The 2090.75 bias-up target is in-play, but there may be an air pocket under the 2084.00 area that slides to fresh session lows. This being a Friday, the last timing window is more vulnerable to trending. Entering the final hour above 2088.00 could attack the 2095.00 overnight highs into the close.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) The reaction to Wednesday's plunge extended higher Friday to attack 1.1080, which is the maximum bounce limit. The balance of the session trended back down, presumably to fulfill the required retest of Wednesday's low. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday's probe under 1150.00 support extended deeper into Friday's open to eventually test the next lower support at 1138.50. Closing back above 1150.00 would now signal the decline had ended. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday's breakout under the multi-session range wasn't confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Friday. That's not a buy signal, but back above 15.85 would start to signal momentum reversing back up. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) A second consecutive lower close Friday would have confirmed Thursday's plunge had reversed the trend down. But the bounce didn't recover what is now resistance at 156-18. Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Friday's retest of Thursday's probe above 46.00 up to 46.75 had held intraday, keeping the bounce's momentum vulnerable to being reversed as the decline resumes. Post-close action did probe higher, but any early selling pressure Monday would be credible for resuming the decline. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday's close above 2.31 fulfilled the minimum requirement to suggest momentum may be reversing up. Extending above 2.37 Friday is still needed to confirm.

Friday morning's 2075.50 bias-down target had become "unfinished business below." It was fulfilled going into the final hour, and held 1-2 more tests during the final hour. Then a last-minute plunge broke lower to 2070.00. The last-minute plunge is not predictive, since it originated after coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close (3:57 ET). The plunge was deep, but it was singular, and it was still overlapping 2075.50 instead of breaking it. Retesting Thursday night's 2094.75 high all but requires immediately rejecting Friday's last-minute plunge Monday. Having fulfilled the rally's 2088.00 objective without closing above it, probing above its resistance would be vulnerable to holding again. Not immediately rejecting Friday's last-minute plunge could get November off to a rocky start. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbttft

I'll send links to the Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2085.50 2079.50 ...would target  2090.50 2084.50 Bias-down: under  2077.00  2071.00 ...would target 2070.50  2064.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.