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DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's late collapse to 3556.00 had probed lower overnight to attack 3542.00. Recovering up to 3564.00 was retraced through the open to touch the overnight low. Recovering up to 3564.00 again only ranged sideways through the afternoon bias environment. Rallying through the bias window's exit quickly reached 3581.50, and ranged sideways again through the close up to 3583.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Then it all evaporated, as the first half-hour collapsed down to 3544.00. Presumably in reaction to Mnuchin pulling some unused funding from the Fed, the morning's lows were retested. Intraday highs were recovered up to 3567.00 by midnight. Consolidating through Europe's opens has broken higher to probe yesterday's 3578.00-3580.00 close up to 3582.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The knee-jerk reaction to the Mnuchin-Fed news was probably exacerbated by having met the market while testing a relevant resistance, last Friday's 3581.00-3582.00 close. Completely recovering overnight suggests as much, while expending a lot of buying pressure. A similar challenge had greeted Wednesday's open before its intraday downtrend. At least this overnight recovery suggests the recent dour news flow is fully discounted by stronger-handed sponsorship. Even more confident that sneaking in any "good" news would likely trigger a very favorable reaction. Rallying still probably depends on the open extending up through yesterday's 3583.00 high, and expiration remains an influential wild card that could exploit upside delay by dipping again. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3574.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3570.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3566.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Expiration's grip. Completely recovering from overnight lows had stopped at the resistance of yesterday's highs. A pre-open pullback kept optimism in-check, but a post-open bounce only touched the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement. Two more downlegs have extended to 3562.00. The 3570.50 bias-down signal triggered cleanly, putting into play its 3558.00 bias-down target. Cleanly triggering bias-down requires its rejection to exit the bias environment above the 3586.50 bias-up signal. Expiration's first 15 minutes didn't trend, so the session isn't likelier to trend in only one direction or the other. But the entire first hour remaining within yesterday's range does make it difficult to break either end until the final hour.

FRI P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3577.00 signal would target 3584.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3560.25 signal would target 3550.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3580.75 3577.00 ...would target 3588.00 3584.25 Bias-down: under 3563.75 3560.25 ...would target 3554.00 3550.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

The grip of expiration. The morning bias environment left unfinished business at its 3558.00 bias-down target. Meanwhile, price action has narrowed its range around the morning 3570.50 bias-down signal. Now the afternoon 3560.25-3577.00 bias signals have avoided triggering. Expiration's wild card can also influence. If expiration's first 15 minutes don't trend, then intraday trending becomes difficult until the final hour -- and there's no requirement to trend even then. Consequently, today's patterns won't be predictive for the bigger picture. But only resolving down this afternoon would confirm Wednesday's bearish WedEX setup and make downtrending Monday morning likely, too.

Friday's expiration session was unusually preceded by the initial overnight collapse to 3544.00, and its complete recovery back up to 3583.00. Intraday action was otherwise usual for expiration, as volatility evaporated into a narrowing range. The morning's 3558.00 bias-down target was left outstanding, until the usual expiration final hour volatility suddenly collapsed to 3556.00. Its 15-point reaction collapsed again -- really collapsed -- to 3543.00. That last outsized leg wasn't unexpected, especially its 9-point extension past the cash session close. It matched last month's expiration behavior, as we were discussing in the chaRTroom before it began. And it could have just as well ticked higher. Regardless, it is wholly a product of expiration, and not predictive to the bigger picture. However, the afternoon downtrending does inform the WedEX setup. Matching Wednesday's bearish behavior now suggests that Monday morning will trend down, too. Regardless of gapping up, or down, sellers will be credible for controlling at least the bias environment. Gapping up above Friday afternoon's 3575.00 high may be the only antidote. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3566.00 signal would target 3577.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3548.00 signal would target 3537.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3569.50 3566.00 ...would target 3580.50 3577.00 Bias-down: under 3451.50 3548.00 ...would target 3541.00 3537.50 Signal status: INVALIDATED BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE