The answer to everyone's question is 2763. That's what caused Tuesday's drop. At least, that's what turned whatever had triggered it into something far more substantial. That's ES 2763.00, from Tuesday's First Trade: "Lower lows have potential to 2763.00, but probably no lower before bouncing to keep alive the rally's momentum. Any deeper would overlap Friday's cash session 'lower prior highs' when optimism needs to remain intact." Monday's gap up had already held its retest of Friday's range -- a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement between Friday's close and Monday's low, which had produced the gap. The pullback could be retested, but not Friday's range without rejecting the gap's intent. I had said that sponsorship to get there was unlikely ahead of Wednesday's illiquidity, to which Trump said, "Hold my beer" and sent his "tariff man" tweet. As difficult as it would be to generate sponsorship in a less liquid environment, it would be difficult to stop it. The consequence exacerbated the pullback. It could have been shallower, and it could still be deeper. Tuesday's low held a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the post-Thanksgiving rally 2629.00 up to Sunday night's  2814.00 Globex high. Recovering from here would be more bullish than first extending down to the room for noise at 2656.00, but possible. One potentially bullish factor to having so many headlines of different stories accompanying the plunge is that a lot of scapegoats can be discounted at once. Brexit drama, Yield curve inversion, China trade truce doubts... Each was already suspicious, and not a total surprise. And the break they induced under 2763.00 was exacerbated by Wednesday's illiquidity Also retraced was 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of Fed Chair Powell's speech surge last Wednesday, represented at Tuesday's close. "Lower prior highs" from that morning were also tested. Tuesday night's price action only firmed, not yet enough to suggest any particular resolution. I'll add comments in the chaRTroom overnight. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2706.00 2706.50 ...would target 2716.75 2717.25 Bias-down: under 2695.75 2695.75 ...would target 2686.00 2686.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.